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Ajay Shah
Ajay Shah studied at IIT, Bombay and USC, Los Angeles. He has held positions at the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (Bombay), Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (Bombay) and the Ministry of Finance, and now works at NIPFP. His research interests include policy issues on Indian economic growth, open economy macroeconomics, public finance, financial economics and pensions. In the past decade, he was extensively involved in the policy process in the reforms of the equity market and the New Pension System.
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Has the recession which began in 2012 ended?
The high growth rates visible in the new GDP data suggest that the recession which began in the first quarter of 2012 has now ended. Based on analysis of data on firms, investment and Balance of Payments, this column argues that the new GDP data does not square with other data which indicates slow growth and a continuation of the 2012 recession.
Foreign investors under stress: Evidence at the firm level
Emerging market policymakers have been concerned about the financial stability implications of financial globalisation. These concerns are focussed particularly on behaviour under stressed conditions.
Capital controls in India: Did they work?
Are capital controls the right way to manage an economy? This column looks at what we can learn from India’s experience, where capital controls have never been fully dismantled.
Does Foreign Institutional Investment in India Increase Financial Vulnerability? An Empirical Investigation Using an Event Study Approach
Emerging market policymakers are concerned about the effects of foreign portfolio flows on financial stability. Do tail events in the home country trigger off extreme responses by foreign investors and is there any asymmetry between the responses of foreign investors to very good versus very bad days
Strategy for dealing with the banking crisis
To deal with India’s banking crisis, Prof. Ajay Shah of NIPFP recommends a two-pronged strategy – more financing for firms, and RBI reforms.
A monetary economics view of the demonetisation
The demonetised Rs. 1,000 and 500 notes were 86% of the total volume of cash in India. In this article, Ajay Shah, Professor at NIPFP, argues that if a significant scale of firm failure were to come about, it would convert a temporary shock into a deeper and more long-term recession.
How do disclosures affect financial choices? The case of life insurance in India
Given the importance of insurance, and the regulatory push towards improved disclosures.
Foreign currency borrowing by Indian firms: What do we know?
As foreign currency borrowing by Indian firms has been increasing, concerns have surfaced about rising associated risks. Hence, recent policy changes seeking to make the regulatory regime simpler and more transparent are timely. This column addresses several important questions regarding foreign currency borrowing of Indian firms, the answers to which can provide a firmer basis for ongoing policy formulation.
Foreign borrowing by Indian firms: Implications for growth and macroeconomic stability
This project analyses the pattern of external borrowing by Indian firms, an exercise that has as yet not been carried out. It identifies possible drivers of such borrowing.
Foreign investors under stress: Evidence from India
Emerging market policymakers are concerned about the effects of foreign portfolio flows on financial stability. This column focuses on the behaviour of investors in extreme events, allowing for the possibility that what happens under stressed market conditions may differ from day-to-day outcomes. The findings for India suggest that while on good days, foreign investors exacerbate the boom by bringing in additional capital, no significant effects are found on very bad days in the local economy.