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Barry Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he has taught since 1987. He is a Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Research Fellow, and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the convener of the Bellagio Group of academics and economic officials. In 1997-1998, he was Senior Policy Advisor at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He was awarded the Economic History Association's Jonathan R.T. Hughes Prize for Excellence in Teaching in 2002, and the University of California at Berkeley Social Science Division's Distinguished Teaching Award in 2004. He is also the recipient of a doctor honoris causa from the American University in Paris. His research interests are broad-ranging, and include exchange rates and capital flows, the gold standard,and the Great Depression; European economics, Asian integration, and development with a focus on exchange rates and financial markets, the impact of China on the international economic and financial system, and IMF policy in past, present, and future.
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India’s debt dilemma
In the fifth article in the Ideas@IPF2023 series, Eichengreen, Gupta and Ahmed reveal how high levels of debt in India limit the resources available for other priorities. At the same time, they predict that there is no immediate crisis of debt sustainability, as institutional factors limit rollover risk, and interest rates have not risen with additional debt issuance. However, financial stability and sustainability risks may arise in the future, and fiscal consolidation would require lower primary deficits achieved through tax revenue generation and privatisation.
Priorities for the G20 Finance Track
Considering the macroeconomic challenges faced by emerging markets, Eichengreen and Gupta outline a few key aspects of the financial agenda that G20 members could address. They discuss seven areas of improvement, including broadening central bank currency swaps, easing access credit lines, reallocating resources to low-income countries, improving the measures used and transparency of credit rating agencies, taking climate-risk into account when lending to vulnerable countries, creating hedging instruments to address currency mismatch, and establishing an effective mechanism for restructuring debts.
Inflation targeting in India: An interim assessment
Inflation targeting in India is a work-in-progress, with a five-year review due by March 2021. This article presents an interim assessment suggesting that significant progress has already been achieved to date: this is evident in the reduced volatility of a range of inflation-related outcomes and in the stronger anchoring of inflation expectations, which appears to have enhanced the ability of the RBI to respond to the exceptional Covid-19 shock.
Public debt through the ages
The history of sovereign debt evolved over time along with the purposes for which governments borrowed: first State-building, then public-good provision, and most recently social welfare and entitlements. Although many periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively culminated in funding crises, debasements, and restructurings, less widely appreciated are episodes of successful debt consolidation achieved through rapid growth or budgetary discipline. This article analyses the economic and political circumstances that made these debt consolidation episodes possible.
From tapering to tightening: The impact of the Fed's exit on India
India was among the hardest hit by the Fed’s ‘taper talks’. This column argues that this impact was large for two reasons. First, India received huge capital flows before. This had made it a convenient target for investors seeking to rebalance away from emerging markets. Second, macroeconomic conditions had worsened, which rendered the economy vulnerable. The measures adopted in response were ineffective in stabilising the financial markets. Implementing a medium-term framework that limits vulnerabilities and restricts spillovers could be more successful.