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Debajit Jha
Debajit Jha is an Associate Professor at Jindal School of Government & Public Policy, O. P. Jindal Global University, Haryana. He is a macroeconomist by training, and his primary research interest is in empirical macroeconomics and growth economics.
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Forecasting long-run Indian GDP using high-dimensional big data
This article describes an attempt to forecast of India's long-run GDP, which uses using quarterly data on macroeconomic variables from 1996-2021, and a dynamic factor model to establish long-run trends. It explains how the model controls for exogenous shocks, including rising temperatures and oil prices, as well as changes in monetary and fiscal policies. It suggests that growth will depend either on the implementation of strategies to deal with these exogenous shocks, or on public investment and public service delivery.
