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Dibyendu Maiti
Dibyendu Maiti is Professor at the Delhi School of Economics. He specialises in international trade and development macroeconomics, and published articles in the Journal of Development Economics, Social Research Indicators, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Labour Economics, Economic Modelling, International Review of Economics and Finance, Cambridge Journal of Economics, American Behavioural Scientists, etc
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Forecasting long-run Indian GDP using high-dimensional big data
This article describes an attempt to forecast of India's long-run GDP, which uses using quarterly data on macroeconomic variables from 1996-2021, and a dynamic factor model to establish long-run trends. It explains how the model controls for exogenous shocks, including rising temperatures and oil prices, as well as changes in monetary and fiscal policies. It suggests that growth will depend either on the implementation of strategies to deal with these exogenous shocks, or on public investment and public service delivery.
