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Why next-generation economic reforms are crucial for reviving investment
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Macroeconomics
Pre-election Budget 2023-24: Short on extravagance, long on substance
The Union Budget presented earlier this month was the last full-year budget before next year's general elections. Rajat Kathuria looks back to India's economic performance in 2014 and suggests that this year’s budget comes against a similar backdrop, with India once again seeing healthy growth projections. He touches upon the budget's focus on macroeconomic fundamentals, including rationalizing untargeted subsidies and replacing them with capex, and lauds as a step towards ensuring effective fiscal consolidation and increased investment in public infrastructure.
I4I@10 | Emerging from Covid-19: Challenges and solutions
As India emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic, economists will have to rethink how they understand the Indian economy in context of global volatilities. In this panel, moderated by Amartya Lahiri, Viral Acharya, Yamini Aiyar and Pronab Sen discuss both the macroeconomic implications of growth, infrastructure and public policy, and the microeconomic concerns of whether we are creating enough good jobs, ensuring welfare, and reducing income inequality.
Budget 2023-24: Some good and no harm
Following the budget speech, Deepak Mishra weighs in on the extent to which the three goals of higher growth, better distribution, and stability were met. He discusses the Finance Minister’s success in appeasing large sections of the population through better targeting of subsidies and deft tinkering of tax policy. He concedes that although this year’s budget is a step in the right direction, it does not aim for bold structural reforms or address issues such as stagnant trade performance.
Budget 2023-24: A wish list of priorities
Ahead of the release of the Union Budget for FY2023-24, Chetan Subramanian reveals his expectations about the government’s key priorities and how they could balance multiple objectives. He discusses the past year's focus on capital expenditure, which is likely to continue. He also highlights the need to focus on incentivising affordable housing; make appropriate allocations to states; and ensure employment growth to boost consumption. Expenditure on rural infrastructure and healthcare are also expected to be priorities, with this budget focussing on continuity.
Little evidence for 'too much finance'
The current consensus that the finance-growth nexus is more complex than previously assumed has led to concerns about ‘too much finance’. Using a large panel dataset over six decades, this article finds some evidence of a detrimental effect of ‘too much finance’, but not for highly financially developed countries or for the long-term growth trajectories of countries with intermediate levels of financial development.
An illusory Phillips curve: Is now the right time for a rate hike?
The Phillips curve represents an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. In this post, Parantap Basu argues that the ‘illusory’ Phillips curve in western industrial nations is driven by a withdrawal from the workforce rather than a demand boom. He contends that now might not be the ideal time for central banks across the world to hike rates, as this has the potential to worsen existing supply-side issues and stagflation.
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