.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}
%201.svg){kind=icon}
%201.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg)
.svg)
Perspectives
Why India's plan to sell rice for ethanol undermines food and water security
In a recent policy shift with regard to India’s Ethanol Blended Petrol Programme, excess rice stocks of the Food Corporation of India are being made available for ethanol production at a reduced reserve price. In this post, Akanksha Jain argues that while the move might resolve an immediate supply chain bottleneck, it risks distorting the long-term balance between food security, environmental sustainability, and bioenergy policy.
Sowing sunshine: Can agriphotovoltaics offer a path to doubling farmers’ income?
In recent years, the contribution of agriculture and allied sectors to economic output has declined, with farmers’ real incomes virtually stagnating. This article demonstrates that new ideas such as agriphotovoltaics, which combine solar power with crop cultivation, have the potential to boost farmers’ incomes while also enhancing land-use efficiency and combating climate change.
The ‘cereal gap’: Looming issues in India’s foodgrain policy
Cereal production in India recently crossed 300 million tonnes for the first time. In this post, Drèze and Oldiges point out that a major gap has emerged between the net availability of cereals and household consumption – and it is unclear where the balance goes. With cereal production expected to increase further, they argue that there is a looming inconsistency between pricing policy and the realities of cereal demand.
100 million tonnes of cereals are missing… every year
In an earlier I4I post, Drèze and Oldiges drew attention to India’s ‘cereal gap’ – a large difference between net availability of cereals and household consumption. In this post, they use recently released consumption survey data, and find that the gap is more than twice as large as their earlier estimate of 45 million tonnes for 2022-23. They discuss the possible reasons for this yawning gap.
Going beyond the International Year of Millets to achieve decade-long action
In the third post of the e-Symposium on ‘Carrying forward the promise of International Year of Millets’, Ashwini Kulkarni considers how the increased focus on millets during this year is just the beginning. She reflects on existing efforts to promote millet consumption, and the need to plan for the decade ahead– by reforming the millets value chain, promoting lesser known millet varieties, providing incentives and support to small farmers during the production process, and increasing research and development into methods for improving productivity and processing of millets.
Farm to fork: An overview of millet supply chains in India
In the second post of the e-Symposium on ‘Carrying forward the promise of International Year of Millets’, Kumar, Das and Jat discuss the potential to increase cultivation of millets, and outline some of the factors contributing to low demand for millets, despite effects to increase awareness about their nutritional benefits, They highlight the need for coordinated efforts between various stakeholders to make millets affordable for consumers and economically viable for farmers, and suggest four strategies to promote production and create demand for millets.
Clearing the fog on the new GDP numbers
The Central Statistics Office recently changed the way GDP is calculated in India, revising the growth estimate for 2013-14 from 4.7% to 6.9%. Many are confused and skeptical about the new numbers, partly owing to a perceived mismatch between the higher growth and underperformance of other economic indicators. In this article, Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Axis Bank, contends that a credible economic rationale underlines the new methodology. He demonstrates that corporate data are consistent with the national accounts estimates, and this has a bearing on future growth expectations.
What saved the rupee?
This article analyses the dramatic fall of the rupee between May and August this year, and its recovery thereafter. It asserts that it was primarily external factors and an unconventional intervention by the Reserve Bank of India that influenced the evolution of the rupee during the period.
High public debt in India: 9 stylised facts
The Covid-induced surge in public debt in India was unique compared to its own history, but also bigger and driven by different factors relative to the average emerging market economy. In this post, Mishra and Patel document nine stylised facts on the recent evolution of sovereign debt and fiscal deficits in India – examining issues such as the cost of high debt levels, whether there are silver linings, and the path ahead.
Union Budget 2025-26: Many small measures but lacks big ideas
The Finance Minister recently presented the Union Budget for 2025-26. In this post, Rajeswari Sengupta notes that the most significant aspect of this Budget is the fiscal stimulus aimed at middle-class consumers through tax relief. However, she argues that the impact of this measure is likely to be limited and short-lived in the absence of substantial structural reforms to drive sustainable, long-term growth.
Economic development of Punjab: Prospects and policies
While the north Indian state of Punjab topped per-capita income rankings within the country until year 2000, its position fell consistently thereafter. This article discusses the current state of Punjab’s economy – in terms of agriculture, manufacturing and services; jobs and education; and public finance and governance – and the reasons for the challenges faced by the state. Further, they consider prospects for growth and enabling policies.
What will it take for the Indian economy to break out of the lower-middle-income bracket?
In 2007, India moved from the low-income to lower-middle-income category, as per the World Bank’s classification of countries by income. With clear aspirations to graduate into the higher brackets of income, what will it take for India to make it? Speaking at the launch event of Ashoka’s University’s Isaac Centre for Public Policy (ISPP), experts including Rakesh Mohan (former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India), Anup Wadhawan (former officer of the Indian Administrative Service) and Prachi Mishra (Chief of the Systemic Issues Division, International Monetary Fund) discuss ideas for achieving faster structural transformation of the economy, strengthening State capacity, catching the bus for labour-intensive manufacturing, empowering urban local government, and consolidating public debt.
Growth, well-being and distribution in the last decade – II
In the first part of this two-part series, Balakrishnan and Parameswaran presented an assessment of the performance of the Indian economy on macroeconomic indicators. In this post, they focus on well-being indicators – including those pertaining to health, sanitation and housing, poverty, and food security – followed by a discussion of the likely change that may have occurred in the distribution of income.
Budget 2024-25: A countercyclical approach to fiscal policy
Keynes propounded that fiscal policy should be countercyclical in nature – expansionary during recession and contractionary during periods of boom. In this post, Aakanksha Shrawan analyses India’s Interim Union Budget for 2024-25, as well as trends in the discretionary spending component of government’s fiscal policy in recent years. She concludes that India seems to be on track towards sound debt management and a higher degree of countercyclicality in fiscal management.
Interim Budget 2024-25: Are we on track to achieve healthcare for all?
The National Health Policy, 2017 set a target of increasing India’s health expenditure to 2.5% of its gross domestic product by 2025. In this post, Sayamsiddha decodes the recently presented Interim Budget, with a spotlight on outlays for health programmes. In her view, the government should complement their current focus on insurance models and private sector role with adequate and effective public provisioning of healthcare.
Growth, well-being and distribution in India in the last decade – I
As India gets ready to vote in the general election, Balakrishnan and Parameswaran present a comprehensive, evidence-based review of the performance of the Indian economy over the past decade. In the first of a two-part series, they focus on macroeconomic indicators including growth, investment, unemployment, inflation, manufacturing performance, and tax revenues. In part II, they analyse indicators of well-being and investigate how the income distribution may have changed in this time.
India’s debt dilemma
In the fifth article in the Ideas@IPF2023 series, Eichengreen, Gupta and Ahmed reveal how high levels of debt in India limit the resources available for other priorities. At the same time, they predict that there is no immediate crisis of debt sustainability, as institutional factors limit rollover risk, and interest rates have not risen with additional debt issuance. However, financial stability and sustainability risks may arise in the future, and fiscal consolidation would require lower primary deficits achieved through tax revenue generation and privatisation.
Pre-election Budget 2023-24: Short on extravagance, long on substance
The Union Budget presented earlier this month was the last full-year budget before next year's general elections. Rajat Kathuria looks back to India's economic performance in 2014 and suggests that this year’s budget comes against a similar backdrop, with India once again seeing healthy growth projections. He touches upon the budget's focus on macroeconomic fundamentals, including rationalizing untargeted subsidies and replacing them with capex, and lauds as a step towards ensuring effective fiscal consolidation and increased investment in public infrastructure.
Priorities for the G20 Finance Track
Considering the macroeconomic challenges faced by emerging markets, Eichengreen and Gupta outline a few key aspects of the financial agenda that G20 members could address. They discuss seven areas of improvement, including broadening central bank currency swaps, easing access credit lines, reallocating resources to low-income countries, improving the measures used and transparency of credit rating agencies, taking climate-risk into account when lending to vulnerable countries, creating hedging instruments to address currency mismatch, and establishing an effective mechanism for restructuring debts.
Budget 2023-24: Fiscally conservative but lacking economic strategy
The Indian economy’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has not been all good news: employment creation has stagnated, and government capex allocation has not been successful in generating private sector investment. Against this backdrop, Rajeswari Sengupta discusses two missed opportunities for the Union Budget – announcing strong growth-oriented policies, which could help meet the medium-term fiscal deficit target to increase macroeconomic stability; and boosting India's trade competitiveness by reducing import tariffs and focussing on exports.
Budget 2023-24: Some good and no harm
Following the budget speech, Deepak Mishra weighs in on the extent to which the three goals of higher growth, better distribution, and stability were met. He discusses the Finance Minister’s success in appeasing large sections of the population through better targeting of subsidies and deft tinkering of tax policy. He concedes that although this year’s budget is a step in the right direction, it does not aim for bold structural reforms or address issues such as stagnant trade performance.
Budget 2023-24: A wish list of priorities
Ahead of the release of the Union Budget for FY2023-24, Chetan Subramanian reveals his expectations about the government’s key priorities and how they could balance multiple objectives. He discusses the past year's focus on capital expenditure, which is likely to continue. He also highlights the need to focus on incentivising affordable housing; make appropriate allocations to states; and ensure employment growth to boost consumption. Expenditure on rural infrastructure and healthcare are also expected to be priorities, with this budget focussing on continuity.
An illusory Phillips curve: Is now the right time for a rate hike?
The Phillips curve represents an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. In this post, Parantap Basu argues that the ‘illusory’ Phillips curve in western industrial nations is driven by a withdrawal from the workforce rather than a demand boom. He contends that now might not be the ideal time for central banks across the world to hike rates, as this has the potential to worsen existing supply-side issues and stagflation.
Budget 2022-23: Hits and misses
Outlining the hits and misses of the Budget 2022-23, Rajeswari Sengupta contends that the capital expenditure push by the government seems to be a step in the right direction, while the rationale behind the continued focus on protectionism is questionable. In her view, the Budget appeared to lack a coherent growth strategy, which was the need of the hour – especially given the high levels of government debt.
Assessing the credibility of sub-national budgets in India
The Covid-19 crisis has put immense pressure on the finances of Indian states. Fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic period will depend on growth revival, increased fund flows, and efficient budget management processes. In this context, Jena and Singh assess the credibility of sub-national budgets during the period 2012-2019, in terms of planned and actual revenues and expenditures – both at the aggregate and individual state levels.
India’s asset monetisation plan
In August 2021, Government of India announced an asset monetisation plan wherein existing public assets worth Rs. 6 trillion would be monetised by leasing them out to private operators for fixed terms, and the proceeds would be used for new infrastructure investment. In this post, Amartya Lahiri examines the revenue potential of this plan, and whether it is likely to enhance the efficiency of the economy.
Understanding the dynamics of the rupee-dollar exchange rate
Since 1993, the Indian rupee (INR) has officially been following a market-determined exchange rate – price is determined by demand for and supply of foreign exchange – with intervention by the Reserve Bank of India from time-to-time. Analysing data from 2000-2020, Patnaik and Sengupta examine whether INR actually followed multiple exchange rate regimes, and if so, how the Central Bank managed exchange market pressure across these regimes.
How open is India's capital account?
Although India began opening up its capital account in the mid-1990s, the approach towards financial liberalisation has been cautious. Tracing changes in the de-facto openness of the country’s capital account over time, Aggarwal et al. contend that greater financial integration with global markets along with monetary policy autonomy to successfully pursue an inflation target, reduces the policy space available to the RBI to stabilise currency fluctuations.
Growth in India: Narratives and evidence
There are various narratives on the trajectory of India’s economic growth, and its key determining factors. This article analyses the recently released GDP data series at 2011-12 prices, extending back to 1950, to establish India’s actual growth trajectory. It also provides a theoretical explanation for the growth, and brings perspective to the role of the economic policies pursued at different stages of India’s economic history post-Independence.
De-globalisation driven by global crises
Concerns associated with the Covid-19 pandemic have led to new rationales of protectionism, with renewed emphasis on domestic production and sourcing. In this post, Assaf Razin compares the current economic crisis brought on by the pandemic to previous major economic crises, and examines what this could mean for the future of various aspects of globalisation.
Of twists and turns: Monetary policy and ‘term premium’
As India’s economic growth slowed down in recent years, the reliance on monetary policy to stimulate growth increased significantly – especially during the pandemic. Analysing data from 2018-2020, Rajeswari Sengupta and Harsh Vardhan show that conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions of the RBI have had only a modest impact on the ‘term premium’ – an indicator of the market’s expectations of future interest rates. This points towards the limits of monetary policy actions alone as economic stimulus during a crisis.
Budget 2021-22: Does it address structural issues?
Highlighting some of the key features of the 2021-22 Union Budget, Sarthak Agarwal contends that although this Budget was presented in an exceptionally difficult period for the Indian economy, policymakers have remained cognisant of the structural challenges facing the country.
A world of no lockdowns: The case of South Korea and Sweden
While most of the world was under lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, two countries, Sweden and South Korea, decided to keep their economies open. In this post, Bhatia et al. use a metric of six categories to compare the measures taken by the two countries in their respective economies last year.
Budget 2021-22: A passing grade
Assessing the 2021-22 Union Budget, Bhaskar Dutta argues that while there are several positive features, the overall thrust is disappointing because it does not address the needs of the poor.
Budget 2021-22: A macroeconomic overview
Providing a macroeconomic overview of the Union Budget 2021-22, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha and Sharmadha Srinivasan contend that it is based on realistic assumptions of nominal GDP growth, is reasonably aimed at fiscal expansion rather than premature austerity, makes fiscal policy more transparent, and has a welcome focus on capital spending. However, they believe that it also sets the stage for higher public debt ratios that will complicate the management of the economy.
Budget 2021-22: Over-reliance on infrastructure investment to spur growth?
Commenting on the strong infrastructure push in the 2021-22 Budget, Sarmistha Pal argues that an emphasis on investment in infrastructure may not necessarily bring India out of the current economic recession – with the Budget’s negligence of the education sector and insufficient health expenditure, making matters worse.
Budget 2021-22: Missed opportunity for increasing tax collection
Examining income tax announcements of Budget 2021-22 with a broader perspective, Gurbachan Singh highlights the need to increase tax collection in India in a gradual and careful but sustained manner. In his view, while checking tax evasion is important in this context, it is also important to ensure that the law requires people to pay taxes in the first place.
Budget 2021-22: A gender lens
Examining the 2021-22 union budget through a gender lens, Nalini Gulati discusses what the budget does – and does not do – for women in the Indian economy, particularly with respect to the digital push, public transport, other public services, health sector, and the boost to the textile industry.
An assessment of policy performance under the current regime
Commenting on the recent policy paper by Subramanian-Felman, Maitreesh Ghatak discusses why – looking at the same numbers – he would tend to be less generous in his grades for the performance of policy initiatives under the current regime. Regarding the Covid-19 shock, Ghatak contends that to the extent there is a policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods, one wonders why India does not score highly on either – whether it is “hardware problems” or “software” glitches in policy design and implementation.
Fiscal rules during the Covid-19 pandemic
Several countries have amended their fiscal rules to provide for additional public spending, in order to revive their economies that have been adversely hit by the pandemic. This post examines the fiscal strategies to deal with the Covid-19 shock of a set of countries that belong to the G20 group or the middle-income EMEs, and are broadly similarly placed as India.
State of the Indian economy: Diagnosis and recommendations
Arvind Subramanian (India’s former Chief Economic Adviser) and Josh Felman (former IMF Resident Representative to India) have brought out a new policy paper, offering a diagnosis of the Indian economy and recommendations for the forthcoming budget. In this post, Ashok Kotwal (I4I Editor-in-Chief) highlights key takeaways from their paper. Over the next few days, I4I will present a series of comments by eminent economists on this analysis.
The Indian economy and policymaking: Towards ‘openness’
Providing his perspective on the recent policy paper by Subramanian and Felman, Nirvikar Singh contends that more emphasis is needed on financial reforms and innovation, addressing India’s export slowdown, and enhancing digital connectivity. In his view, greater transparency and openness to criticism will lead to better policymaking.
“New Welfarism”: Old wine, new bottles?
Commenting on the recent policy paper by Subramanian and Felman, R Nagaraj contends that the authors imaginative re-branding of the erstwhile ‘populist schemes’ as “New Welfarism of the Right” is an endorsement of the current government policies, without contending with burgeoning evidence on their shortcomings. Nagaraj further argues that what the authors call ‘software’ problems of policymaking are essentially matters of governance, and the issue of crony capitalism needs to be addressed.
Inflation targeting and capital flows
Current law in India mandates a review of the target inflation rate by 31 March 2021 for a five-year period. Several critics have called for abandoning the flexible inflation targeting regime altogether. In this post, Gurbachan Singh shows that flexible inflation targeting can accentuate the problem of sudden capital flows, and that the current monetary policy framework can be substantially improved by including two ‘new’ policy instruments that can be used by the Ministry of Finance rather than the RBI,
Covid-19 crisis: Response should not undermine institutions
The unprecedented economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in calls for drastic actions on part of the government and RBI. In this post, Sengupta and Vardhan content that these actions often entail – explicitly or indirectly – undermining or even overriding established frameworks and institutions of policymaking. In their view, this approach is ineffective and unsustainable, and can be dangerous for India’s medium- to long-term growth prospects.
Aatmanirbhar Bharat: Foreign trade, capital flows, and India’s growth
The Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) policy was announced by the central government, along with the economic package, as a response to the crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. In this post, Partha Sen discusses the role of foreign trade and capital flows in India’s growth performance. He contends that India can create foreign demand for its products by putting a lid on capital flows and following a suitable exchange rate policy
A ten-point programme for economic recovery
The Indian economy has been experiencing a slowdown in growth of GDP in general and investment in particular, with the Covid-19 crisis being the last (big) straw. In this post, Gurbachan Singh presents an internally consistent 10-point programme for economic recovery, which includes a novel package of well-targeted policies for macroeconomic and financial stability, and self-sustaining growth.
Covid-19: Assessing fiscal position of government in first quarter of 2020-21
In this post, Pandey and Raju analyse the trends in the revenue, expenditure, and borrowings of the Government of India in the first quarter of 2020-21, based on data released by the Controller General of Accounts. They argue that the contraction in revenues in the Covid-struck economy has constrained the government’s capacity to effectively address the operational needs arising from the pandemic, and that greater borrowing by the government may be required in the coming months to offset a rise in expenditure.
Subsidies, merit goods, and fiscal space - II
In Part I of this two-part series, the authors presented their estimates of total budget subsidies, and their merit and non-merit components. In this part, they discuss the relationship between subsidies and the delivery of specific public services, the comparative efficiency of subsidy use by different states, and the scope for rationalisation of subsidies as a part of deep fiscal reforms, in order to create fiscal space for reviving inclusive growth following the Covid-19 lockdown shock.
What would make India’s growth sustainable?
Much of the discussion on the economic slowdown in India in recent years – as well as on the government’s measures to tackle the present economic crisis due to the Covid-19 lockdown – is focused on the supply side. In this post, Ghatak, Kotwal, and Ramaswami emphasise the demand channel, and argue that this is the fate of any growth episode that is not inclusive.
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan: Putting the cart before the horse
In an attempt to tackle the economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, Government of India announced a Rs. 20 lakh crore Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan financial package, equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP. In this post, Dey and Kundu present a detailed analysis of the package and contend that the actual stimulus component is only about 1.27% of GDP. They propose a modified package equivalent to 5% of GDP, with a focus on stimulating demand in the economy.
Covid-19: Recession in India, and policy lessons from other countries
Given the prevailing economic situation in India and following the past experience of several developed countries, there is a clamour for accepting much larger fiscal deficits, and adopting unconventional monetary policy. In this post, Gurbachan Singh contends that these are relatively soft and not very effective policy options for sustainable recovery and growth. He presents a different diagnosis, and accordingly, an alternative policy prescription.
Covid-19: Conditions on state borrowing need a rethink
States have been in the firing line in the battle to save lives and livelihoods from the impact of Covid-19. However, the loss of economic activity following the nationwide lockdown, has wreaked havoc on states’ finances. While the Centre has allowed states to raise their fiscal deficits from 3% to 5% of gross state domestic product, riders have been imposed in the form of implementation of reforms. In this post, Mayank Jain and D Priyadarshini examine whether these conditions will facilitate or hinder the effective functioning of states in the current scenario.
Protectionism and Statism, once again
In this post, Ajit Karnik argues that, at a broad strategic level, the Indian government has displayed a disconcerting shift towards protectionism and Statism over the last few months. While discussing India’s experience with an inward-looking policy in the past – the negative consequences of which had kept it shackled in a low rate of growth for decades – he presents a critique of the economic vision of the current government.
States’ loss of fiscal autonomy in a centralised federal system
The Indian states bear the larger responsibility in dealing with Covid-19, but they have few resources to do so. In this post, M. Govinda Rao argues that the ongoing process of centralisation has weakened the states, and that we need an institutional mechanism to oversee bargaining between the Centre and the states.
Covid-19, and the way to avoid a blunt interest rate policy
Given the looming recession due to Covid-19, the Reserve Bank of India has reduced interest rates to encourage economic activity in the country. In this post, Gurbachan Singh contends that the prevailing interest rate policy is non-transparent and complex, in addition to being blunt. He proposes an alternative policy that is transparent, simple, and well-targeted.
I4I Webinar on the Covid-19 shock
Join our Webinar - based on the recent I4I series by Dr Pronab Sen on "The Covid-19 shock: Learnings from the past, addressing the present", on Friday, 12 June 2020 at 5 pm IST.
The Covid-19 shock: Learnings from the past, addressing the present - II
In the first part of the series, Dr Pronab Sen discussed the performance of the Indian economy during the last two major economic shocks – Global Financial crisis in 2008, and demonetisation-cum-GST in 2016-17 – and drew lessons for the current crisis. In this part, he estimates the damage to the economy due to the lockdown and export slowdown, taking into account the fiscal stimulus announced by the government so far. Presenting the expected trajectory of the economy over the next three years, he contends that the likely recovery path is not a V, but an elongated U, maybe even closer to an L.
The Covid-19 shock: Learnings from the past, addressing the present - V
In the previous two parts of the series, Dr Pronab Sen presented a pathway to recovery from the Covid-19 shock in three distinct phases – survival, revival, and recovery. In the final part of the series, he discusses the financing of the recovery, addressing concerns around deterioration of the government’s fiscal position, and how resources can be raised for financing a larger stimulus package.
The Covid-19 shock: Learnings from the past, addressing the present - IV
In the previous part of the series, Dr Pronab Sen presented a pathway to recovery, focusing on the ‘survival’ phase, that is, the three-month period of lockdown. In this part he discusses the revival phase – four-month period after the lockdown is lifted and normal economic activity is allowed to resume from June 2020, and the recovery phase thereafter.
The Covid-19 shock: Learnings from the past, addressing the present - III
In the previous part of the series, Dr Pronab Sen provided estimates of the economic damage on account of the ongoing crisis, and the expected trajectory of the economy over the next three years. In this part, he presents a pathway to recovery, focusing on the survival phase. In the immediate context while the lockdown is in place, the two principal imperatives should be survival of those who have lost livelihoods, and of production capacities in non-essentials sectors. An approximate estimate of the additional fiscal support required during this three-month period is Rs. 2 trillion.
How to ease Covid-19 lockdown? Forward guidance using a multi-dimensional vulnerability index
While extending the nationwide Covid-19 lockdown for two more weeks starting 17 May 2020, the government has given major relaxations for public movement and economic activity in non-containment zones in India. Essentially the current method for classifying all the districts into zones is unidimensional in nature, relying primarily on the existing penetration of the infection as a predictor of future spread. Chakrabarty, Mandi, and Mukherjee construct a multi-dimensional Vulnerability Index for Indian districts that can provide guidance for lifting the lockdown sequentially.
Covid-19: Mitigating the risk from reverse migration
One of the worst affected sections from India’s Covid-19 lockdown has been the migrant workers who have been left jobless, moneyless, and homeless. Though efforts are being made by several state governments to bring back migrant workers and facilitate their safe movement, this ‘reverse migration’ raises the risk of the spread of infection to the hinterlands. In this post, Parikh, Gupta, and Subham discuss how states can mitigate this imminent risk.
Covid-19: Escaping the economic dangers
As long as the spread of Covid-19 is not controlled in India, there is a threat of new complete or partial lockdowns in response. In this post, E. Somanathan contends that any further lockdown risks incurring a loss of over 10% of GDP without stemming the spread of Covid-19. The ideal strategy is to find and isolate the small fraction of infected people through incentivised testing, while allowing business as usual to resume.
Covid-19: Does the Government of India really have little fiscal space?
Several commentators have argued that the Government of India has very limited fiscal space to provide fiscal stimulus to jumpstart the economy, and spend on the poor and on medical care post Covid-19 lockdown. In this post, Gurbachan Singh contends that there is significant, if not ample, fiscal space, if we use the term more broadly. He shows how fiscal space in terms of government's existing assets can be an alternative way of maintaining aggregate demand in the economy
Webinar: The new Coronavirus and the Indian economy
The Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES) and I4I are jointly hosting a webinar with Ashok Kotwal (Editor-in-Chief, I4I) on Monday, 18 May at 9.30 am IST. Prof. Kotwal will discuss the structure and state of the Indian economy in 2019, the arrival of New Coronavirus, the response by the Government of India, the public debate over the appropriateness of the response, and suggestions for a course correction.
Covid-19: Leading India effectively out of the lockdown
India is on the brink of coming out of its Covid-19 lockdown. In this post, Ghosh and Pal examine the challenges around the implementation of expert advice on effectively leading India out of the lockdown. They argue that the central government can do more to promote intergovernmental cooperation in building a national strategy for resolving policy paralyses, to release essential funding to states objectively for enhancing testing and tracking, and to regulate fake news and misinformation for preventing fear and rumour.
Covid-19: Expected migrant movement as lockdown eases
Since the lockdown was announced in India, many migrants have undertaken the difficult journey to their place of origin. However, millions of them are still in cities, and some are expected to return home when the lockdown is lifted. Using past data on seasonal and permanent migration, Imbert shows that they will mostly come from a few manufacturing clusters where Covid-19 prevalence is high, and return to poor rural areas where healthcare capacity is low.
How costly are flawed government responses to Covid-19? An assessment of the migrant crisis
By March-end, countless migrant workers started fleeing India’s locked-up cities and trekking home to their villages amidst the Covid-19 crisis. Sarmistha Pal argues that government’s responses until now not only failed to cater to migrant workers’ needs, but also remain largely ineffectual in solving the cash constraints of their employers. These responses are costly as they are likely to give rise to more hunger and starvation, deaths, loss of productivity, firm closure, and ultimately mass unemployment.
Covid-19: Getting fiscal policy right
The textbook answer to financing of additional government expenditure in a recession is that the government should borrow the funds rather than impose a tax. Gurbachan Singh argues that the conventional wisdom applies to a normal economy in recession, but not to an economy that is in recession due to lockdown. He explains that the Government of India need not incur additional fiscal deficit to provide an additional relief package; it can instead impose direct taxes without making a significant dent into the aggregate demand.
Is Covid-19 equally deadly across all states?
International experience suggests that the rates of fatality on account of Covid-19 vary across the world. In this post, Jain and Chatterjee seek to estimate the fatality rate of the pandemic in India, and the extent of spatial variation across states. They find that the overall ‘Case Fatality Ratio’ – ratio of deaths to cases – is around 13-15%, and states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh record higher values than other states.
Covid-19: Consequences for state finances
When Covid-19 pandemic started in India, given that health is a state subject, individual states reacted as best they could under state-level legislations. However, as more than 60% of all economic activity was shut down with the announcement of a nation-wide lockdown on 24 March, the result was a sudden and sharp drop in states’ own taxes at the time when their expenses shot up. In this post, Pronab Sen discusses how state finances have been dealt a devastating blow.
15th Finance Commission: Covid-19 warrants rethink of local government allocations
The 15th Finance Commission has made significant departures from the previous Central Finance Commissions in its recommendations for urban local governments, in its interim report for 2020-21. In this post, Mehta and Mehta highlight these and provide some suggestions for consideration in the final report, especially with regard to increasing allocation for sanitation, and making available more untied funds for urban local governments to enable them to meet exigencies of Covid-19-like situations.
Financing of fiscal response to Covid-19: A red herring?
Governments around the world are frenetically announcing an expanding slew of rapid response measures to address the fallouts of Covid-19 pandemic. The fiscal price tag on these measures is massive and growing rapidly. In this post, Datt and Bajaj argue for an alternative way of financing the fiscal response in India: the Reserve Bank of India could directly buy government bonds to the tune of the fiscal response, offering money to the government account, and then write it off.
Covid-19 and MSMEs: The ‘identification’ problem
A recent survey of 5,000 micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) found that 71% of them could not pay salaries to their workers in March 2020 due to the Covid-19 lockdown in India. The government has announced that a stimulus package focused on the MSME sector is in the offing. In this post, Pandey and Pillai explain the issue of identification of beneficiaries in the absence of a comprehensive dataset on MSME units, and suggest potential mechanisms for targeted relief delivery.
Only germs this time, no guns and steel (yet)?
The first round of globalisation over the previous centuries was associated with a transmission of diseases between continents. With Covid-19, history seems to be repeating itself, but this time in the form of a global pandemic fuelled by increased human connectivity. Chakrabarti and Chatterjee discuss how globalisation may itself be set back by Covid-19, as countries have stopped production, and supply chains have been disconnected, disrupting the gains made by mankind over the past two centuries.
Covid-19: The infected economy
India, along with much of the world, is now in a lockdown. But the cost of locking down the country is particularly high for the urban poor in India. Besides, the reality of urban living reduces the efficacy of a lockdown in containing the spread of Covid-19. In this post, Amartya Lahiri explains why a bigger fiscal package is needed to approach the direct cost of the lockdown, and how it can be financed.
Age composition of population and Covid-19
The novel Covid-19 is affecting the advanced countries in the Western Hemisphere disproportionately more than developing countries. In this post, Basu and Sen show that Covid-19 casualty is higher in countries where there is a large ageing population, and therefore question whether a draconian lockdown is a practical policy for India going forward, where the proportion of elderly population is low.
We need a Marshall Plan to fight Covid-19
There are still a lot of unknowns in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, but two robust lessons are clear: we need to pull out all stops to strengthen our healthcare capacity and reinforce social-safety nets on a massive scale. In this post, Parikshit Ghosh argues that if the fight against the virus is given the metaphor of war, we need a Marshall Plan while we fight that war, not after it is over.
Covid-19: Curated content and resources
Watch this space as we bring together our pick of articles, videos, and podcasts as well as useful links with credible information on Covid-19.
Covid-19: Are we ready for the long haul? - Part II
In Part I of this piece, the authors made broad recommendations to guide the government’s response to Covid-19 in India. In this part, they identify five salient population groups that are particularly vulnerable to the economic and health shocks arising from the current crisis, and regions where relief effort needs to be concentrated.
Covid-19: Are we ready for the long haul? - Part I
As this may be the first of many future lockdowns to stamp out possible repeated outbreaks of Covid-19, policymakers must be prepared to provide relief to adversely affected individuals. With this in mind, the authors propose a comprehensive approach that argues for a combination of in-kind transfers and cash support to be provided to all households with ration cards during any lockdown that takes place over the next 24 months.
Covid-19: Is there a reasonable alternative to a comprehensive lockdown?
In India’s battle against Covid-19, we are inevitably confronted by the choice between social distancing on the one hand, and denying people their livelihood on the other. Recognising the unsustainability of a general, mandatory lockdown, Ray and Subramanian put forth a proposal whereby the young are legally permitted to work and the locus of measures to avoid intergenerational transmission is shifted to the household.
Covid-19: Dealing with the economic consequences
In the last two weeks, the Covid-19 pandemic has turned the world economy upside down, and all indicators point to one of the sharpest economic contractions in modern times. In this post, Ram Singh discusses the hard choices that lie ahead for India, and what government interventions are required to prevent the shock from turning a slowdown into a depression.
Covid-19: Macroeconomic implications for India
Due to the measures adopted to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19), especially social distancing and lockdown, non-essential expenditures are being postponed. This is causing aggregate demand to collapse across the globe. Rajeswari Sengupta argues that the problem could be more acute and longer lasting in India owing to the parlous state the economy was in before Covid-19 struck, and discusses policy options to deal with the economic crisis.
Infrastructure development: Current bottlenecks and way forward
Infrastructure development remains a key constraint in India’s economic development. Given the budgetary constraints of the government, private financing for infrastructure provisioning through public private partnerships has become imperative. In this post, Meenakshi Sinha discusses the challenges and issues of partnership agreements between the public and private sectors, and the need to explore alternative pathways for land acquisition that work to the benefit of all stakeholders.
How India’s growth bubble fizzled out
India’s GDP growth has slowed sharply from 8% per annum last year to 5% in the second quarter this year. In this post, Ashoka Mody contends that the ongoing slowdown is not a short-term disruption; a financial bubble that began inflating nearly three decades ago is finally fizzling out. In his view, it is crucial for India to build necessary human capital alongside safer and more productive urban spaces.
Union Budget 2020 and India’s economic future
In this post, Nirvikar Singh discusses what we can learn from the recently presented Union Budget about the possible direction of India’s economy. He contends that, though the Budget is positive in terms of its potential impacts on India’s economy, the difference from recent years is a need for focus and implementation with an urgency that has not been needed for some time.
Union Budget 2020: Preference for infra spending, divestment, and directing resources to middle class
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget for 2020-21 on 1st February – at a time when economy is facing an economic slowdown. In this post, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha contends that even though the tax assumptions are less aggressive this time than those in the July 2019 Budget, a lot depends on the strength of the economic recovery and the ability of the government to pull off an ambitious divestment plan.
The need for a total overhaul of the GST regime
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council met in Goa in September 2019 to find a way to boost the weakening Indian economy. The Council recommended reductions in GST rates for certain categories of goods and services. In this post, Abheek Barman contends that the answer is to overhaul the GST totally, and discusses how the government can go about this.
Does the current economic slowdown warrant a fiscal boost?
The Indian economy is going through an economic slowdown. Several economists have made a case for an expansionary fiscal policy to deal with the slowdown. In this post, Gurbachan Singh argues that it is not advisable to use fiscal policy now. He further contends that part of the fall in demand is rooted in the long-term supply-side reforms that the government and Reserve Bank of India have been undertaking.
What should we do about the Indian economy? A wide-angled perspective - III
In the previous part of this series, Ashok Kotwal and Pronab Sen presented an export-led development strategy employed by successful Asian countries and why India failed on this front. In this part, they trace the genesis of the present economic slowdown.
Tapping the revenue potential of property tax in India
Property tax, levied on ownership of any real property, is a significant source of revenue for city-level municipal governments in India. However, revenue collections from it are quite low as it is poorly administered, and its potential not fully harnessed. Chattopadhyay and Kumar argue that apart from improving valuation technique or expanding tax base, efficient tax collection and management are essential to strategising a property tax reform.
What should we do about the Indian economy? A wide-angled perspective - IV
In the previous part of this series, Ashok Kotwal and Pronab Sen traced the genesis of the present economic slowdown. In this part, they discuss the way forward to arrest the slowdown. They suggest a rural-led growth strategy, which would deliver slower overall growth but will have a bigger positive impact under the present circumstances. They argue that a rural-led strategy may also circumvent some of the obstacles that are presently preventing India from implementing the template followed by successful Asian countries.
Foreign currency sovereign bonds: Think before you leap?
Government recently announced its decision to borrow in foreign currency from abroad to finance part of government’s fiscal deficit. In this post, Renu Kohli discusses some key fiscal preconditions regarded paramount to ensure a strong sovereign balance sheet before venturing in to the unchartered territory of foreign borrowing.
What should we do about the Indian economy? A wide-angled perspective - II
In the previous part of this series, Ashok Kotwal and Pronab Sen described the generic process of development in a dual economy. In this part, they present the strategies employed by successful Asian countries that led to a total structural transformation of their economies. They further explain the unique problems that make India’s progress on this front difficult.
I4I Event: Panel Discussion on financing development in India
‘Ideas for India’ is hosting a panel discussion on ‘Financing development in India’ on Monday, 9 September 2019, at Desire Hall, Le Méridien Hotel, New Delhi at 6:30pm. The panellists are Prachi Mishra (Goldman Sachs), Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg), and Ananth Narayan (SP Jain Institute of Management and Research). The discussion will be moderated by Pronab Sen (IGC India), and feature reflections from Minouche Shafik, Director, London School of Economics. In this post, Ashok Kotwal (Editor-in-Chief, I4I) outlines the key issues for deliberation.
Why external sovereign debt should be avoided
The Finance Minister of India, in her 2019 Budget speech, announced the government’s intent to finance a part of the fiscal deficit by issuing sovereign bonds in the international financial markets. This is a major departure from a 72-year history of Indian economic management when external commercial debt was consciously avoided by the government. In this post, Dr Pronab Sen discusses the arguments made in favour of issuing foreign currency-denominated sovereign bonds, and contends that such debt should be avoided.
Has China really outperformed India?
It is widely agreed that China has grown much faster than India, and that India has finally taken over in recent years. In this piece, Martin Rama benchmarks the growth performances of the two countries in ‘development time’ rather than ‘chronological time’ – and puts forth the possibility that for a quarter of a century India outperformed China in terms of economic growth and is starting to lag now.
Four lessons for developing countries from advanced economies’ past
In this post, Izvorski and Karakülah contend that comparisons between today’s developing countries and today’s advanced economies can provide aspiration but less so in terms of recommendations about policies and institutions. Of greater value for developing countries are comparisons with advanced economies when they were less prosperous. Using government spending a century ago by 14 of today’s advanced economies, they highlight four lessons for developing countries.
Union Budget 2019: An attempt to address the economy’s stress points
In this post, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha contends that in the first Budget of the second Narendra Modi administration, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has made an honest attempt to address some of the stress points in the Indian economy – but a lot depends on the sanctity of her Budget numbers.
Make in India: Why didn't the lion roar?
In this Perspectives piece, Prof. Nagaraj contends that ‘Make in India’ has failed to meet its objective of turning industry around. The government has seemed more concerned with improving India's rank in the spurious Ease of Doing Business Index, which anyway did not result in higher investment.
Interim Budget 2019: Rising fiscal deficit in a 'booming' economy
In this article, Rajeswari Sengupta analyses various nuances of the recently announced Union Interim Budget, including the deviation from the targeted path of fiscal consolidation. In a world of Aadhaar-linked bank accounts, it is significantly easier for governments to transfer money to a vast numbers of voters leading to an increase in the temptation to announce new welfare schemes. This can potentially take a serious toll on the nation's fiscal strength.
Demonetisation’s multiple failures
With 99.3% of banned currency returning to the banks, it is clear that demonetisation’s primary objective of nullifying ‘black money’ was not achieved. In this post, Dr Renu Kohli contends that it is also difficult to conclude – as some others have done – that demonetisation either raised tax buoyancy more than other measures, or lowered cash intensity in the economy
India’s national policy framework on e-commerce: Issues and concerns
In July 2018, India released a draft national policy framework on e-commerce among its stakeholders. The ensuing debate led to the government announcing a revised draft policy. In this post, Rahul Choudhury examines some of the major provisions of the policy in light of the country’s issues and concerns with regard to e-commerce, and suggests the way forward.
Nobel laureate Paul Romer’s contribution to endogenous growth theory
What motivates people like Steve Jobs to spend time, money, and effort in developing new ideas despite the implicit hazard that ideas can easily be copied later? In this post, Mausumi Das contends that Nobel Laureate Paul Romer was the first economist who addressed this issue in a comprehensive manner and linked the economics of ideas to the economics of growth within a coherent macroeconomic framework.
Challenges in access to secondary education in India
India’s latest National Education Policy has envisaged universal access to education by 2030. However, while enrolment is high in elementary schools, access to and uptake of secondary education has remained low. Bordoloi and Pandey consider some contributing factors, including the limited number of schools offering secondary education, the higher costs associated with schooling, and the lack of public investment in education and vocational training. They call for increased attention to be paid to policy focussed on secondary education.
Using geospatial methods in estimating exposure to open defecation
Universal access to clean water is far from a reality in many developing countries. This column examines a nationwide information campaign that attempted to minimise the use of arsenic-contaminated tubewells in Bangladesh. It finds that mothers in arsenic-contaminated areas are more likely to exclusively breastfeed their children, and breastfeed for longer after the campaign - likely out of concern for child well-being. It also finds that infant health improves.
Enabling inclusive education
In this column Renu Singh, Country Director of Young Lives India, contends that multiple and overlapping barriers of poverty, gender, religion, caste and disability have to be overcome to ensure education for all.
Is trade with India changing Africa’s healthcare landscape?
After China, India has become the second largest trading partner with sub-Saharan Africa. The southern and western regions of Africa – which have the largest number of people living with HIV/AIDS worldwide – are the largest importers of Indian pharmaceuticals. In this post, Dixit, Emery, and Kumar discuss encouraging developments in healthcare trade between India and Africa, and the pathways for widening this life-saving trade.
Building foundations well: The challenge for primary education
Rukmini Banerji contends that the draft New Education Policy gets it right in emphasising the importance of Early Childhood Care and Education and the need to urgently work on establishing foundational literacy and numeracy at the primary stage, where there is currently a learning crisis.
Social protection in the Union Budget 2019
In this post, Sudha Narayanan analyses the provisions pertaining to social protection in the Union Budget 2019. She contends that while the budgetary figures give the impression that the Government is staying the course with many social welfare programmes, it may well be chipping away the architecture of social protection in India.
What do children in rural India do in their early years?
This year’s Annual Status of Education Report throws light on what children in India do in their early years. In this article, Bhattacharjea and Ramanujan argue that the assumption that there is a universal, age-based trajectory that children follow from home to preschool to primary school is far from what happens on the ground. Children take different pathways through the early years that have consequences for what they experience and learn.
School education in India: Equity in learning?
In recent years, the focus has shifted from enrolment to learning in school education in India. The debate has been centred on learning levels of children and whether they moved up or down, but what about equity in learning? In this post, Wilima Wadhwa discusses inequity in school education across three dimensions – school type, distribution of learning outcomes, and geographical location.
ASER 2018: Behind the headlines
Thanks to more than a decade of Annual Status of Education Reports (ASER), the main headlines from the surveys are widely known – the learning levels of Indian school going children are worryingly low. In this article, Rukmini Banerji takes a closer look at the recently released ASER 2018 data to see what else it can tell us, and discusses actionable steps to bring forward children who are falling behind
India’s education quandary: Learning from learning outcomes
The World Bank’s Human Capital Index, 2018 ranks India at 115 out of 157 nations. While there has been progress towards universalisation of elementary education and gains in broad indicators such as enrolment rates and student-teacher ratios, the quality of education continues to remain a black box. In this post, Bandyopadhyay and Agarwal discuss the key factors behind the deteriorating learning outcomes, with an emphasis on per-pupil expenditure, school infrastructure, and teaching.
National Nutrition Mission: Will it harmonise with India’s health and nutrition agenda?
India is home to 31% of all stunted children and half of all wasted children across the globe. Lately it took a major step in the direction of holistically addressing the mammoth multidimensional problem of malnutrition – the National Nutrition Mission to achieve the goal of malnutrition-free India by 2022. In this post, Shweta Khandelwal outlines various aspects of the programme which need brainstorming, and the challenges that it might encounter.
Kerala vaccination policy: Is it feasible for other states too?
In a drastic step to ensure that all children below five years of age are fully vaccinated, the Kerala government introduced a draft health policy in February 2018, which made vaccination compulsory for school admissions. In this post, Kaushik Bharati assesses the feasibility of the policy for other Indian states, based on a comparison of parameters such as health index, vaccination coverage, and literacy rates.
National Health Stack: A job half well-done
To support the implementation of the recently launched National Health Protection Scheme, NITI Aayog has proposed the creation of digital infrastructure called National Health Stack. In this post, Smriti Sharma discusses the thinking behind National Health Stack, and whether it can help overcome the challenges faced by existing government-sponsored public health schemes. She contends that laying a technology framework on top of a flawed system will not resolve underlying issues.
Why we still need to measure open defecation in rural India
On October 2, the government will host the UN Secretary General and other international delegates at the Mahatma Gandhi International Sanitation Convention, to celebrate India’s progress on ending open defecation. In this post, Srivastav and Hathi contend that while the recently released National Annual Rural Sanitation Survey data seem to show that open defecation is being eliminated from rural India, this conclusion is unfortunately premature.
ASER 2024: More than a post-pandemic recovery in learning
The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024 reports on children’s schooling status and reading and arithmetic levels from almost all rural districts of India. In this post, Wilima Wadhwa, Director of the ASER Centre, discusses the key trends in school enrolment and learning outcomes across government and private schools. Noting improvements in learning, she attributes the gains to the focus on foundational learning and numeracy in the New Education Policy.
Moratorium on new subsidies to garner resources for public spending on health
Employability is fundamentally driven by human capital development, encompassing health and education. Based on analysis of data from about 100 economies, Shishir Gupta argues that in India, the lack of sufficient public spending constrains healthcare – rather than education, where the issues are different. In his view, one pragmatic way to increase public spending on healthcare is by putting a moratorium on new subsidies and rationalising existing ones
India’s massive employment problem and some ways out
In the recent announcement of India’s Union Budget 2024-25, significant emphasis was placed on the need for job creation. In this post, Pranab Bardhan presents a four-pronged strategy for the sustainable generation of good jobs in the long run: mass-scale vocational education and apprenticeship; replacing capital subsidies with conditional, wage subsidies; providing extension services to non-farm household enterprises; and boosting demand via a basic income supplement for vulnerable groups.
Transforming menstrual hygiene in India
Launched in 2014, the ‘Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram’ seeks to improve menstrual hygiene in India by addressing issues around affordability as well as awareness. In this post, Kanika Dua contends that the programme – combined with enhanced provision of sanitation facilities – helped increase the adoption of hygienic menstrual management products, particularly among rural, less educated, and economically disadvantaged women.
Improving healthcare access to address the rise in non-communicable diseases among Indian women
In light of the changing healthcare burden for women, with a rise in mortality due to non-communicable diseases, Bhan and Shukla outline the incidence of diseases in Indian states over the last two decades, and the role that the PMJAY programme plays to alleviate constraints to healthcare access. They note the male bias in utilisation of public-funded healthcare programmes, as evidenced from state insurance schemes, and highlight the need to understand the barriers to access and user experience of women.
Persistent struggle for learning: A tale of tribal regions
The recent National Achievement Survey shows that tribal districts lag behind in learning outcomes. This article suggests this to be of significant concern, as the distribution of schooling infrastructure does not show similar differences. It highlights the below average language and mathematics outcomes in areas with a higher share of tribal populations. It emphasises the need to focus on teachers’ involvement and pedagogical improvements, in addition to investment in physical infrastructure, to achieve the goal of inclusive learning
The ‘invisible’ disability of mental illness: Barriers to social security access
Sakshi Sharda writes about the how a lack of clarity on the assessment and diagnosis of mental health and poor implementation of social security schemes increases the vulnerability of those livings with disabilities. She explores the difficulties faced when obtaining disability certification for people suffering from ‘invisible’ disabilities such as mental illness, neurological disorders and learning disabilities. She highlights the shortcomings in existing policy, and issues caused by the lack of consensus on testing and limited access to tertiary health care centres.
Foundational learning outcomes: More recovery than loss
Sharing data from the recently released ASER 2022, Wilima Wadhwa discusses the trends in primary school enrollment and learning during the pandemic. Using data collected from Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal in 2021 to fill in the gap in the surveys, she shows how there were large learning losses in reading and maths between 2018 and 2021; however, learning levels had recovered by 2022. She also highlights the emphasis given to foundational learning, the results of which are reflected in ASER 2022.
Nutritional penalty of motherhood: Can midday meals for children also improve their mothers’ health outcomes?
Midday meals provide a nutritional safety net for children and improve their learning outcomes and attendance. Nikita Sharma argues that spillover benefits might also exist for mothers of the children who receive them. She highlights research findings which indicate that, in addition to addressing malnutrition among children, midday meals also ensure that mothers do not need to forgo their own consumption to feed their children in times of scarcity.
Old habits and new norms
As schools reopen and memories of the pandemic fade, Madhav Chavan takes stock of practices and ideas that have become the ‘new normal’. He highlights the increase in enrollment and absence of learning loss among children over the last few years, and the role that parents and the community played in aiding children’s learning efforts. He sees the pandemic-induced closures as an opportunity to learn from how the school system coped with the challenge and created new pedagogical norms.
A data story on female child marriage in India
In the eighth post of I4I’s month-long campaign to mark International Women’s Day 2023, Shubham Mudgil and Swathi Rao from The Quantum Hub use a novel dataset based on NFHS-5 to present data highlights on child marriage in parliamentary constituencies across India. They trace the prevalence of female child marriage and the extent to which the situation has improved in certain states over the years. They discuss the issue of underreporting, and the need for a holistic approach of empowering women to ensure reduction in female child marriage rates.
Credit cooperatives: Promoting worker well-being during crises?
Research shows that access to alternative credit mechanisms during the pandemic enabled informal women workers to gain financial security, benefitting their mental well-being in the process. Based on the results of a survey conducted by SEWA Bharat in 2021, Devika Oberoi discusses the mechanisms through which credit cooperatives increase financial security and create networks among women, and suggests some policy interventions which can encourage financial inclusion and improve women's resilience in times of crisis.
The future of old times
India needs to plan for a radical expansion of public support for the elderly. In this piece, Drèze and Duflo argue that near-universal social security pensions would be a good start. Elderly persons, especially widows, often struggle with poverty, ill health and loneliness, all associated with a risk of depression. Financial assistance would help them to lead an easier life. Some Indian states already have near-universal pensions, and there is a case for extending this approach across the country.
Remedying poor student assessment data in India
Taking into account existing evidence on the accuracy of administrative data on student learning levels in India, Singh and Ahluwalia discuss why a reliable system of student assessment matters; fixing the quality of assessment data is a step towards preventing a vicious cycle of mediocrity in the Indian education system. They highlight how independent third-party evaluation, and the use of technology and advanced data forensics can help prevent misrepresentation of true learning levels.
Covid-19: Identifying and addressing vaccine hesitancy using ‘personas’
Vaccine hesitancy poses a threat to India’s fight against Covid-19, and given the different motivations that drive vaccine hesitancy, a one-size-fits-all solution may not be feasible. In this post, Daral and Shashidhara use data from a Facebook survey – conducted in partnership with the University of Maryland – to identify the barriers and beliefs driving vaccine hesitancy, by segmenting the vaccine hesitant into ‘personas’ based on their psycho-behavioural profiles.
Covid-19 in India: Cases, deaths, and vaccinations
The Omicron variant resulted in a third major wave of Covid-19 in India, with the number of cases exceeding those in the second wave, albeit causing less severe illness on average. In this post, Kundu and Gisselquist draw on several nationally representative data sources to illuminate key Covid-19 patterns and trends in the country pre-Omicron – capturing the differential impacts across regions, and discuss how the pandemic response can be improved
Budget 2022-23: The elephants and the ostrich
Analysing India’s 2022-23 Union Budget, Neeraj Hatekar contends that MNREGA, the rural job guarantee programme that has not received additional funding vis-à-vis 2021-22 budget estimates, should be leveraged in dealing with the looming agriculture crisis. He also examines the deterioration of health and nutrition indicators, and puts forth the view that there are no significant initiatives in the Budget to address this.
Estimating changes in India’s workforce during 2011-2018
Prior to the 2017-18 Periodic Labour Force Survey, there was paucity of official, labour-market data since the last nationally representative survey was from 2011, and other surveys in the intervening period indicated varying estimates. In this post, Basole and Nath identify the main factors driving these differences, and highlight the most salient feature of employment during 2011-2018 – massive withdrawal of women from subsidiary agricultural work.
Timeliness and coverage of child vaccinations across India
Despite free vaccinations for children below 12 years of age under the Universal Immunisation Programme, one-third of global child deaths due to vaccine-preventable diseases occur in India. In this post, Debnath and Chaudhuri use nationally representative data from 2005-06 and 2015-16, to examine the timeliness and coverage of routine immunisation in the country. Further, they discuss findings from a recent primary survey in Bihar to gauge the impact of Covid-19 in this regard.
Covid-19 and mobility: A behavioural perspective
The imposition of a nationwide lockdown in March 2020 to check the spread of Covid-19, sparked debates on the necessity and effectiveness of such measures due to resulting economic hardships. In this post, Chadha and Naik examine the correlation between Covid-19 spread and mobility in the district of Pune in Maharashtra state, between January and July 2021.
Covid-19 and mental health: Focus on children’s holistic development
Santanu Mishra (Co-founder and Trustee Smile Foundation) discusses how Covid-related restrictions on movement and social interactions, and complete dependence on adults to create a conducive home environment, have had an impact on the mental health of children. He also highlights the need for schools - when they reopen - to focus on more holistic development of children.
Covid-19 and mental health: Are children ready to go back to school?
Previous parts of the I4I e-symposium on ‘Covid-19 and mental health’ have discussed the potential adverse effects of school closures on children’s psychological well-being – particularly those belonging to marginalised and vulnerable groups. In this post, Wilima Wadhwa presents ASER (Annual Status of Education Report) 2020 findings on children’s access to learning materials during this period. She contends that when schools reopen, the system will have to adapt to children and their current reality, rather than the other way around.
Covid-19 and mental health: Large-scale phone survey in six Indian states
The Covid-19 pandemic brought with it the dual crises of public health and the economy, particularly in low-income settings with limited formal safety nets. Based on a large-scale phone survey conducted across six Indian states, this article finds that stricter containment measures, while potentially crucial to check the spread of the virus, are associated with worse mental health among women and higher food insecurity.
Covid-19 and mental health: Strengthening psychosocial well-being of children
Yasmin Haque, UNICEF Representative in India, outlines the evidence on the severe impact of the pandemic on the mental health of children and adolescents – particularly girls, and the measures being taken by UNICEF and its partners to provide support.
Gender pay gap in India’s health workforce
Despite constituting almost half of the qualified health workforce in India, female health workers face a visible gender pay gap and lack of conducive work conditions. In this post Arushi Pandey examines the evidence on gender disparities in compensation for health workers at various levels, and the impact of on women’s careers, service delivery, and universal health coverage and health-related sustainable development goals.
Book review: India’s fight against the Covid-19 pandemic
The Indian government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic has drawn polarising reactions, mostly set within a restrictive ‘success-failure’ metric. In this post, Oommen C Kurian reviews the book Till We Win: India’s Fight Against The Covid-19 Pandemic by Chandrakant Lahariya, Gagandeep Kang and Randeep Guleria – commending the authors for their balanced, nuanced approach to assessing India’s Covid-19 response. In his view, the book also serves as an accessible information source for general readers on viruses, health systems and policies more broadly.
Covid-19 and other diseases: An ‘Animal Farm’ perspective
Debraj Ray and S Subramanian contend that despite the apparent sentiment of ‘we are all in this together’, the global burdens of Covid-19 and the global benefits of anti-Covid-19 policy have been skewed against the poorer nations of the world, and within nations, against the poor and the vulnerable.
Understanding India’s mental health crisis
Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, several reports have indicated a worsening of mental health issues among individuals across age groups. In this post, Michele Mary Bernadine examines the state of mental health in India, the cost of the mental health crisis to the economy, and the extent to which legislation and existing State capacity is equipped to address this crisis.
Budget 2021-22: Healthcare takes centre stage, again
Assessing the 2021-22 Union Budget from a health-sector perspective, Coffey and Spears contend that improving India’s health outcomes will require old solutions to old problems – and this sort of thing is hard to find in a ‘new’ budget. In particular, they advocate for increased allocation for maternal and newborn health programmes in the next budget.
International Day of Education
24 January is observed by the United Nations as the International Day of Education, to highlight the importance of education for sustainable development and to promote universal, equitable, and inclusive education. The 2021 theme is “Recover and revitalize education for the Covid-19 generation”, with a focus on placing education and lifelong learning at the centre of the pandemic-recovery process. This page presents selected I4I content pertaining to the provision of and access to education in India – with particular focus on schooling during Covid-19 and related issues of technology and facilities, learning outcomes, and disparities across socioeconomic groups.
Maternal health services utilisation: Has the rich-poor gap declined?
Various studies have noted that vast inequalities – economic and socio-demographic – exist in maternal, newborn, and child health outcomes and utilisation of care services. In this post, Sohini Paul explores how inequality in the use of these services changed in the 10 years following the launch of the National Rural Health Mission in 2005. While service utilisation by the poor increased and the rich-poor gap declined in this period, coverage remains low among the poor and inequality persists
Designing India’s national healthcare protection: Challenges and opportunities
The burden of non-communicable diseases, requiring costly hospital-based treatment, is increasing in India, and only 15% of the population has health insurance coverage. The Modi government recently introduced the Ayushman Bharat–National Health Protection Mission that aims to pay for tertiary healthcare for nearly 100 million families across the country. In this post, Debnath et al. highlight design issues that the programme must overcome to deliver on its promise.
Are we prepared for the future of work?
Given the threat of jobs displacement on account of the rise of automation and artificial intelligence, it has become crucial to develop a high-quality labour force with advanced cognitive skills. In this context, Raavi Aggarwal examines the trends in government spending on the education sector, as well as learning outcomes. She contends that in order to sufficiently prepare for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we need to make adequate investments in education, skills, and innovative capacity now.
Reducing maternal mortality in India: A four-pronged strategy
While India’s maternal mortality rate declined substantially during 2004-2006 to 2014-2016, at an annual rate of 5%, the reduction is still short of what is required to achieve the National Health Policy target. Jithin Jose proposes a four-pronged strategy to sustain and accelerate the decline, RAFT – review of medical records, death certificates or autopsy reports of mothers; access to quality and respectful healthcare for women; funding for infrastructure, medicines, and interventions in the labor room; and training of personnel.
How can immigrant scientists give back to their homelands?
In addition to contributing to their adopted countries, immigrant scientists have potential to use their talents to give back to their homelands. In this context, Madhukar Pai shares his personal experience in India, and provides insights that may be applicable to immigrant scientists from other countries.
The resurgence of chikungunya in India: How should we tackle it?
The number of reported cases of chikungunya – a mosquito-borne viral disease – has been increasing in India in recent years, especially during 2016-2017. In this article, Kaushik Bharati discusses why this is so and what can be done about it.
What lies ahead: The role of entrepreneurship in India's rising public health sector
India’s deep pool of entrepreneurs has launched countless disruptive businesses from the Bay Area to Bangalore. In this article, Chintan Maru explores the question − how can India attract this talent to tackle the country’s formidable public health challenges?
Strengthening primary healthcare: From promises to reality
In February 2017, Government of India had announced its plans to upgrade some of the existing primary healthcare facilities into Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs). However, the pace of implementation has been very slow. In this article, Dr Lahariya contends that the recently announced Ayushman Bharat, which includes a component on HWCs, can provide a much-needed impetus to this initiative – if certain concrete steps are taken.
Modicare: Getting universal health coverage in India right
The recently announced National Health Protection Scheme succeeds Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), which provided health insurance for short-term hospital visits to the poorest 300 million Indians. Based on their large-scale study of RSBY in Karnataka, Malani and Kinnan put forth some important lessons for the new programme.
Value, not volume: Four ways entrepreneurs can help restore trust in India’s healthcare providers
India’s healthcare providers are facing a crisis of public distrust. In this article, Chintan Maru contends that the root of the problem is the way healthcare is paid for. He explores how health entrepreneurs can undertake the transformation from pay-for-volume to pay-for-value, thereby aligning the interests of healthcare providers and patients.
India's plan to eliminate tuberculosis by 2025: Converting rhetoric into reality
During the 2017 Union Budget address, the Government of India announced its plan to eliminate tuberculosis (TB) by 2025, which is extraordinarily ambitious given that India accounts for a large proportion of new TB cases and deaths globally. In this article, Pai, Bhaumik and Bhuyan offer some suggestions that might help bridge the gap between ambition and reality.
Despite improvements in child health, why do so many newborns still die?
The ‘Million Death Study’ shows that the death rate of under-five children in India dropped from about 90 per 1,000 to about 47 during 2000-2015. However, improvements in death rates in the first month of life have been slow, and deaths from low birthweight remained largely unchanged. In this article, Diane Coffey elaborates on these findings and recommends stronger efforts to understand and improve the health of pregnant women.
For no more Gorakhpur
In August 2017, the media was splashed with the grim news of the tragic deaths of children at a hospital in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, owing to alleged medical negligence. In this article, Chandrakant Lahariya contends that there are immediate, knee-jerk responses to such tragedies and everything is forgotten soon after. He highlights possible lessons and action points that emerge from such incidents.
Achieving universal health coverage in India: Inefficiency is the problem, not money
India has been widely criticised for having one of the world’s lowest public spending on health. In this article, Kanchan Mukherjee contends that even with this minimal expenditure it is possible to achieve universal health coverage. This is because money is not the issue; the crux of the problem is the inefficient way it is spent, which includes misplaced priorities and a lack of evidence-based decision-making.
A letter to Oxfam: Reframing the questions around private-sector healthcare
A 2009 Oxfam paper puts forth the view that scaling-up private healthcare provision is very unlikely to deliver high-quality care to the poor. Commenting on the paper, Jishnu Das contends that while it is right to argue for investments that improve public healthcare and build State capacity, we will not get there by demonising the private sector.
Recognition of snakebite as a neglected tropical disease: What does it mean for India?
In June this year, the WHO placed snakebite envenoming on its list of top-20 priority neglected tropical diseases. In this article, Dr Bharati contends that India, which has the highest burden of snakebite mortality in the world, should grab the opportunity to spearhead the global initiative to tackle the disease.
Can India reap the demographic dividend in higher education?
India’s population is going through a ‘demographic bulge’, with an increase in the proportion of the working age group and a decrease in that of dependents. In this article, Shivakumar Jolad computes the demographic changes due to fertility decline and attempts to forecast the demand and supply of higher education over the period 2016-2031, across Indian states.
Japanese encephalitis in Gorakhpur: Why has vaccination failed to make an impact?
Vaccination is the mainstay of prevention strategies for Japanese encephalitis – the child killer disease that recently caused many deaths in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh. In this article, Dr Kaushik Bharati discusses why the vaccine drive in India has failed to reach its full potential in the fight against the disease, and what can be done about it.
Making India open-defecation free by 2019
Swachh Bharat Mission – the flagship sanitation programme of the Indian government – aims to make India open-defecation free by 2019. However, this has only been achieved in 17 of 686 districts so far. In this article, Bhaskar Pant outlines the key reasons due to which the government’s efforts are not being reflected in the results, and makes suggestions to increase the effectiveness of the programme.
Health policy and economic growth in India
A new synthesis paper (Menon 2017) produced by the International Growth Centre brings together evidence from various health-related IGC studies on India undertaken over the past seven years, to draw implications for health policy. At a workshop organised by IGC in collaboration with Ideas for India and Indian Statistical Institute, Srinath Reddy (Public Health Foundation of India), Alok Kumar (NITI Aayog), and Karthik Muralidharan (University of California, San Diego) discussed key policy lessons emerging from research, and areas where further work is required.
Gorakhpur's Japanese Encephalitis malady
The recent controversy around multiple child deaths in a public hospital in Gorakhpur district in Uttar Pradesh has brought the focus back on Japanese Encephalitis – the child killer disease. In this article, Smriti Sharma contends that a holistic, intersectoral approach is required to tackle the issue.
Why doesn’t anybody know if Swachh Bharat Mission is succeeding?
In 2014, the Prime Minister announced a goal of eliminating open defecation by 2019. In this article, Coffey and Spears, contend that now almost two-thirds of the way through the Swachh Bharat Mission, nobody knows whether it is succeeding because there is no credible, independent survey that can offer a useful estimate of the fraction of rural persons defecating in the open.
Zika virus: Is it a potential threat to India?
The WHO recently reported the first three laboratory-confirmed cases of Zika virus disease in India – all in the state of Gujarat. In this article, public health consultant Kaushik Bharati discusses the potential threat of the vector-borne disease to the country, and what needs to be done.
Smart policy for women's economic empowerment in South Asia
In this article, Jennifer Johnson and Nalini Gulati highlight the different trajectories of women’s economic empowerment across South Asia, based on a recent policy dialogue hosted by Evidence for Policy Design.
Moving towards a principles-based drug retail policy in India?
The health ministry has proposed a new e-platform for tracking the country’s entire drug supply chain, including online sales. In this article, Smriti Sharma and Amey Sapre contend that the e-platform is a step in the right direction, but imposing the requirement of brick-and-mortar facilities on e-pharmacies is incorrect. Regulators should adopt an approach that promotes the principles of competition, innovation, and customer protection and responsibility in the drugs market.
On Delhi's mohalla clinics
The Delhi government planned to set up 1,000 mohalla or community clinics in the state by end-2016, but only one-tenth of the target was met in the proposed timeline. In this article, public health expert Chandrakant Lahariya contends that in the success or failure of this initiative, at stake is the future of the efforts to reform the health system and strengthen primary healthcare in urban areas across Indian states.
Promoting excellence in higher education in India
Over the years, the entire system of higher education in India has relentlessly bled talent. In this article, Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics at MIT, discusses why this is so, and what can be done.
Common tongue? How mother tongue instruction influences education
The recently released draft of the National Education Policy stresses the importance of education in the mother tongue, especially in the formative years at school. This column seeks to uncover the link between vernacular language use in schools and educational achievement using data from large-scale historical events in South India. It finds that mother-tongue instruction led to persistent increases in educational achievement in primary and secondary schooling.
School consolidation in Himachal Pradesh: Achieving quality and inclusion
While the emphasis on neighbourhood schooling in India’s education policy over the past 15 years has increased enrolment, it has also contributed to a proliferation of poor quality, small schools. To address this, the state government of Himachal Pradesh has announced its intent to consolidate existing schools. In this article, Shrikant Wad discusses the issue and recommends measures that would enable the consolidation policy to achieve quality along with inclusion.
Maternity entitlements for healthier babies
The National Food Security Act, 2013 provides for a maternity benefit of not less than Rs. 6,000 for every pregnant and lactating mother in India. In this article, Coffey and Hathi explain why maternity entitlements are a good investment, and discuss how they should be designed to have the biggest impact on the health and productivity of the next generation.
India's informal doctors: Assets, not crooks
Informal healthcare providers are the most common, and sometimes the only source of healthcare, in much of rural India. In this post, Jishnu Das of the World Bank argues that informal providers should be trained and their impact evaluated to see if it improves healthcare for poor people.
New Education Policy: Addressing institutional concerns
Failure of education policy has been attributed, at least in part, to implementation issues. In this article, Kiran Bhatty, Senior Fellow at the Center for Policy Research, contends that the poor state of institutional capacity in education, especially at the lower levels of administration, does not receive sufficient attention. The New Education Policy should include a plan for institutional reforms as these are critical for successful implementation of policies and programmes.
Five priorities for the New Education Policy
In this article, Ashish Dhawan, Founder and Chairman of Central Square Foundation, lays out five broad priorities for the New Education Policy – ensuring robust data on children’s learning, strengthening school-based management, integrating early childhood education into the school system, engaging the private sector, and leveraging technology.
New Education Policy: Incorporating a 'Right to Learn' Act
In this article, Geeta Kingdon, Professor of Education Economics and International Development, University College London, discusses some of the provisions of the Right to Education Act, 2009 that are leading to declining learning levels. In her view, the most important plank of the New Education Policy must be to nullify the effect of such provisions by bringing in a new ‘Right to Learn’ Act, 2016 to supersede the RTE.
Getting reading right, right now
In this article, Lant Pritchett, Professor of the Practice of International Development at Harvard Kennedy School, contends that children of 2015 in India are not getting the education they need to be ready to lead the polity, society and economy of the country in 2050. To fix the problem, we should start by ensuring that every child is taught to read fluently by grade 3.
New Education Policy: Putting money where learning is
More public expenditure on elementary education in India in recent years has not translated into better learning outcomes of schoolchildren. In this article, Anit Mukherjee from the Center for Global Development, contends that the defining legacy of the New Education Policy should be to redesign public finance and delivery systems in education to focus on learning and reward good performance.
Assessments in school education: The current debate
There is an active ongoing debate in the country on the move to scrap the No-Detention Policy and the efficacy of Continuous Comprehensive Evaluation, which were introduced under the Right to Education Act. In this article, Azim Premji Foundation puts forth the argument that if one understood the idea behind assessments in the progressive paradigm of education, the need for these initiatives would become clear.
Holding the teacher education enterprise accountable for its performance
Research on the performance of trained and untrained teachers fails to find that students of trained teachers always perform better. In this article, Amita Chudgar, Associate Professor of Education Policy at Michigan State University’s College of Education, argues that while a focus on teacher assessment and accountability is important, teacher training institutes must be held accountable for providing appropriate teacher training.
Ensuring learning at the elementary stage: Are children school-ready?
In this article, Venita Kaul and Aparajita Bhargarh Chaudhary from the Centre for Early Childhood Education and Development, Ambedkar University, present evidence from their research to emphasise the importance of good preschool education to prepare children to learn well in elementary school, and recommend adding a preschool class to all existing schools.
Ten steps to transform the quality of education in India
In this article, Sridhar Rajagopalan, Managing Director of Educational Initiatives, suggests 10 initiatives that can help transform the quality of education in India.
New Education Policy: An opportunity not to be lost
There are now various assessments to measure learning levels, and much debate around what learning indicators to use at different stages of schooling. In this article, Wilima Wadhwa, Director of ASER Centre, contends that there is a lot to learn from the different approaches to assessment and the New Education Policy provides an opportunity to re-examine and unify them.
Tackling India's dengue problem
The dengue virus has infected 25,000 people in India this year, with about 6,000 in Delhi alone. In this article, Chandrakant Lahariya, a public health policy expert, contends that the dengue situation represents a failure of local public health administration, and calls for a holistic approach to address the root causes and ensure long-term solutions.
Is the policy focus shifting from school education to higher education in India?
The overall allocation for education has been reduced in the 2015-16 union budget, with an increase in allocation for higher education and decrease in allocation for school education. In this article, Bharadwaj and Srivastava explore whether the policy focus is really shifting from school education to higher education. They argue that while it is important to focus on higher education and skill development to plug the gap created by poor quality school education, this can only be a transitory arrangement.
Moving beyond the growth-versus-redistribution debate
The two dominant narratives on the state of the Indian economy – one centred on growth and the other on poverty – are in a constant state of conflict. In this article, Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, argues that we need to move beyond the stale growth-versus-redistribution debate and focus on economic mobility through investments in human capital.
Drafting India's new national health policy: A window of opportunity
The Indian government is working on drafting a new national health policy and designing a health assurance mission, in parallel with developing its national health accounts. In this article, Nata Menabde and Chandrakant Lahariya – public health policy experts at the World Health Organization - contend that this opportunity has the potential to transform the health status of millions of Indians and achieve universal health coverage.
India's national immunisation programme: Moving from policy to action
About a year ago, the Prime Minister’s Office in India announced the introduction of four new vaccines in the national immunisation programme. In this article, Chandrakant Lahariya, a public health policy expert, discusses the significance of the decision. He highlights gaps between policy decisions and action with respect to the immunisation programme in the past, and emphasises the need for speedy and effective implementation of the announcement.
Getting centre-state relations right for health in India
The 14th Finance Commission has recommended devolving a greater share of revenues to states in order to give them more control over spending. In this article, Amanda Glassman and Anit Mukherjee examine the current centre-state relationships in the context of the health sector in India. They recommend that centre-to-state transfers should be performance-related, and should seek to, at least partly, level the playing field across states.
How serious is the government about Swachh Bharat Mission?
The recently announced Union budget 2015-16 has reduced the central government allocation for Swachh Bharat Mission – the flagship sanitation programme of the government. In this article, Sangita Vyas, Managing Director for Sanitation at r.i.c.e., questions the commitment of the government to eliminating open defecation in India by 2019.
Swachh Bharat Mission: The long walk from rhetoric to implementation
Swachh Bharat Mission – the flagship sanitation programme of the Indian government – aims to realise the dream of a ‘clean India’ by 2 October 2019, the 150th birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi. In this article, Varad Pande contends that while the renewed rhetoric on sanitation is welcome, the devil will be in the detail. We must learn from past experience and global and Indian best practice, and not repeat the same mistakes.
Putting undernutrition higher on the political agenda in India
In his previous article, Lawrence Haddad contented that globally, we are in the midst of a ‘perfect storm’ for ending undernutrition, and maximum effort is required to take advantage of this transformative opportunity. In this part, he discusses how the new government generates a new opportunity to put undernutrition prevention higher on the political agenda in India.
Ending undernutrition: In clear sight?
The World Health Assembly is targeting a decline of 100 million in the number of stunted under-five children by 2025; a 10% decline in stunting rates in India by 2014 can close a fifth of the gap. This article contents that we are in the midst of a ‘perfect storm’ for ending undernutrition, and maximum effort is required to take advantage of this transformative opportunity.
Restoring dignity to the teaching profession in India
It is unfortunate that the teaching profession in India is no longer considered an attractive career option by young, bright people. This article outlines a plan to make teaching a more viable profession in India. It recommends strengthening teacher education institutions, incorporating practical experience into teacher preparation programmes, promoting performance-linked rewards and career progression, and creating a more professional environment for teachers.
India's disputed ruling on pharmaceuticals and patents
On April 1 2013, the Supreme Court of India rejected the attempt by Novartis, the Swiss pharmaceutical company, to patent a new version of the leukemia drug Glivec. The verdict follows previous rulings that granted compulsory licenses to an Indian generic drug manufacturer for a kidney cancer drug (Nexavar) patented by Bayer. This article discusses five important questions raised by these rulings.
Digital gender divide amidst India’s service-led growth
While India’s growth in recent decades has been services-led, entering high-productivity business services requires an adequate supply of high-skilled workers. In this context, Isha Gupta discusses how the country’s ‘digital gender divide’ – women’s lower access to and use of information and communication technologies – acts as a constraint. Outlining avenues offered by digital technologies, she recommends policy interventions that can help leverage these opportunities for women’s economic empowerment.
Harnessing machine learning to combat domestic violence in India
One in three women globally will endure a form of domestic abuse in their lifetimes – with the prevalence being even higher in South Asian countries such as India. Given the complexity of identifying and addressing intimate partner violence, Sneha Shashidhara discusses the application of machine learning techniques in this context. While recognising the potential of this technology, she also highlights ethical concerns and the need for clear guidelines and safeguards.
Atrocities, murders, and untouchability: Measuring caste-based discrimination
How can we best measure inter-caste tension and discrimination in India? In this post, Victoire Girard highlights the limitations of using statistics compiled under the Prevention of Atrocities Act, which was implemented in 1989 to combat caste-based discrimination. She documents that reported murders of lower castes, or even averaged responses regarding untouchability in household surveys, appear to provide more consistent proxies of inter-group tensions across states.
India’s Women’s Reservation Act: A big win for governance and beyond
Amidst debates about the recently passed women's reservation act and whether it will reduce gender disparities on the ground, Wattal and Gopalan summarise evidence from a number of randomised evaluations on women's participation in local government. These studies find that more women leaders in local governments can lead to greater investment in policies which are a priority for women, as well as improved social perceptions of women and changes in women’s aspirations and attitudes towards gender roles.
Assessing gender disparities in entrepreneurship and employment in India
Economic growth depends on successful utilisation of the entire workforce. Ejaz Ghani argues that gender equality is not only a key pillar of human rights, but could be a powerful tool for sustaining higher and more inclusive economic growth. He notes that despite the economic advances that India has made, its gender balance in economic participation remains among the lowest in the world, and shares some statistics from the manufacturing and services sector which highlight these disparities.
An overview of (elder) son preference in India
In the fourth article in the Ideas@IPF2023 series, Seema Jayachandran presents key information about son preference and how it manifests as gaps in health and updates these outcomes with NFHS-5 data. She substantiates a more novel assertion on how elder sons are favoured and its consequences for other children, especially considering and the impact of declining fertility on sex-selection practices. She concludes with a discussion of the shortcomings of commonly employed policies intended to improve the sex ratio in India.
The complexity of female empowerment interventions
In the final post of I4I’s month-long campaign to mark International Women’s Day 2023, Siwan Anderson unpacks the complex dimensions and interactions between measures of female empowerment. She highlights the sobering and unintended perils of policy interventions that aim to increase women’s economic and political empowerment or change gender norms. She urges policymaking to remain mindful of the backlash within families to women’s expanded economic prospects, the benchmarking and transplanting of gender norms from developed countries and measures to build capacity to make political quotas effective
Atrocities, murders, and untouchability: Measuring caste-based discrimination
How can we best measure inter-caste tension and discrimination in India? In this post, Victoire Girard highlights the limitations of using statistics compiled under the Prevention of Atrocities Act, which was implemented in 1989 to combat caste-based discrimination. She documents that reported murders of lower castes, or even averaged responses regarding untouchability in household surveys, appear to provide more consistent proxies of inter-group tensions across states.
Aadhaar: It's not black and white
Amidst the emerging privacy concerns surrounding the success of Aadhaar and its integration in our day-to-day lives, Outline India conducted a survey in Delhi to understand people's reception of Aadhaar card, its perceived impact on their lives, and their thoughts on making the scheme mandatory to access government services and schemes.
14th Finance Commission: A trust-based approach towards local governments
The 14th Finance Commission has been hailed as ‘path-breaking’ for recommending larger fund allocations to state governments and giving them more autonomy in spending these funds. In this article, Meera Mehta and Dinesh Mehta highlight that the Commission has also recognised the need to trust and respect local government bodies, and has allocated much larger funds to them. Will this approach work and will state governments cooperate?
The challenge of fulfilling aspirations
This year’s election is a watershed in Indian history. This editorial discusses possible reasons for the stunning defeat of the previous government. While there is no denying that the previous government could be faulted for many things including creating a leadership vacuum and letting corruption go unchecked, the knockout blow came from its inability to reform the institutions that are responsible for fulfilling legitimate aspirations of the masses. What should the central government do?
Accountability and responsibility
Accountability of public institutions and employees is deemed important for them to function for the common good. In this post, Drèze and Sen argue that accountability is only one aspect of a much broader concern for responsibility. Explaining how a sense of responsibility can be an immense force for social progress, they call for bringing such ideas back to the forefront of mainstream economics.
What does Mission Antyodaya data say about rural deprivation?
Public provisioning of basic facilities such as health and education, remains crucial for marginalised populations. In the context of the decentralised structure of governance and fund allocation in India, Guha, Jyotishi and Hatekar assess public provisioning at the disaggregated levels, and the gaps therein. Leveraging the Mission Antyodaya dataset, they create a ‘Rural Deprivation Index’ which can be used to examine the status of provisioning across blocks, villages, districts and states.
The ‘Odisha model’ for disaster resilience
From its management of the devastating Super Cyclone in 1999 to the more recent challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, the state of Odisha has been a testament to the power of adaptive governance. In this post, Souryabrata Mohapatra discusses four key aspects of Odisha’s model for disaster resilience – multi-layer institutional framework, ground-up approach, capacity-building, and infrastructure and technology – reflecting the state’s ethos of valuing every life.
Reshaping social protection in India
As India has undergone a transformation in recent decades in terms of trends such as poverty reduction, food security and urbanisation, there is a need to also revamp the traditional social protection architecture. In this post, Ejaz Ghani proposes a four-pillar approach involving a focus on informally employed urban poor, incorporating gender differences in risks, streamlining existing schemes, and engaging the private sector
What explains policy change? Understanding the historical political economy of India
Drawing on insights from his new book, ‘History of Economic Policy in India’, Rahul De frames policy change as precipitating through three circumstances: crisis, coalitions, and contingency. He uses historical examples of policymaking in post-independent India to delineate why and under what circumstances certain policies were implemented. Using instances from the Nehruvian planning regime to the economic liberalisation in 1991, this article aims to use political economy concepts to incisively explain major economic policy changes in India.
Mainstreaming millets right: Dangers of promoting ultra-processed products
In the fifth post of the e-Symposium on ‘Carrying forward the promise of International Year of Millets’, Reshma Roshania argues that instead of relying on the ‘Big Food’ industry to increase the production and consumption of millets, policies should focus on making millets a vital part of government food schemes. She highlights the shortcomings of Production Linked Incentives in ensuring that the nutritious value of millets is realised, and suggests that rather than investments in startups, street food vendors and small-scale food outlets should be encouraged to provide millet-based meals and cater to rural markets.
Decentralised targeting of transfer programmes: A reassessment
Ahead of the release of ‘Decentralised Governance: Crafting Effective Democracies Around the World’, Dilip Mookherjee brings together some of the arguments against decentralisation of welfare programmes, including the incidence of political clientelism and elite capture, and summarises attempts made by developing countries to undertake hybrid ‘recentralisation’ initiatives. While acknowledging that direct benefit transfer (DBT) programmes can limit the scope for misallocation and corruption, he probes the ability of DBTs to be responsive to localised shocks and recentralisation’s implications for fiscal federalism.
Is electrification in India fiscally sustainable?
In the first article in the Ideas@IPF2023 series, Barnwal and Ryan describe the completion of household electrification in India as a fiscal feat, notwithstanding the persistent losses recorded by electricity distribution companies. They outline the extent of government investments in and bailouts of discoms, losses of revenue and electricity subsidies over the last decades, and propose Direct Benefit Transfers for Electricity as a policy solution based on the preliminary results of a pilot study carried out in the agricultural sector in Rajasthan and Punjab.
Unpacking how MSMEs are defined in India’s manufacturing and services sector
The Indian government announced a number of reforms to help micro, small and medium enterprises that had been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic – including changes in how an MSMEs are classified. Rahul Ranjan looks at the shifting classification of enterprises between the old and new definitions and delineates which industries in the manufacturing and services sector saw gains in micro-enterprises as a result of this change.
Analysing e-governance service delivery outcomes: Insights from eTaal
In this piece, Trivedi and Mumtaz attempt to analyse the performance of e-governance service delivery across different tiers of government and service categories, through the volume of end-to-end electronic transactions occurring during service delivery. They use the data aggregated by the eTaal portal to conduct a temporal analysis, and demonstrate an exponential growth in the adoption of e-governance services in India. They emphasise the pathway for bridging the gaps in e-governance service delivery through an accelerated, unified, platform-driven approach.
Has Budget 2023-24 been successful in balancing gender priorities?
Ahead of International Women’s Day, Tanya Rana and Neeha Susan Jacob categorise and analyse scheme allocations through the Union Budget’s Gender Budget Statement (GBS), by looking at what schemes various ministries and departments prioritise under the two parts of the GBS. They discuss issues of arbitrary classification, inclusion of schemes that are not entirely women-centric, and allocations that are inadequate to meet scheme objectives. They emphasise the need for monitoring and unambiguous scheme classifications to achieve financial priorities for women's empowerment.
Improving admissions to technical colleges in India
Following their note on the issues that may arise from the ambiguity of EWS reservation policies, Aygün, Turhan, and Yenmez provide a critique of the multi-run deferred-acceptance algorithm currently used to implement de-reservation in the admission procedure of technical colleges. They outline three major limitations – the assignment of students to their less-preferred programmes, the potential disadvantage associated with reporting reserved category membership, and the scope for preference misreporting – and conclude by putting forth their own choice procedure for admissions to technical college programmes.
Design choices for implementing affirmative action
In this expository piece, Ashutosh Thakur explains the various ways in which affirmative action policies can be implemented, and discusses the underlying tradeoffs and issues at hand. He delineates three implementation designs – hard cap, vertical, and horizontal reservation – in the context of poorly and well-performing candidates in hypothetical scenarios. However, in practice, the lack of detailed guidance has resulted in ad-hoc implementations of affirmative action policies that have long-lasting consequences for the political climate and legal discourse.
Challenges of executing EWS reservation efficiently
A recent Supreme Court judgement excluded members of reserved categories from the scope of EWS. Aygün, Turhan, and Yenmez look at the implications of this decision, including reserved category members having to choose between applying for positions on the basis of their caste or income, and the ambiguity about how EWS reservations are defined. They corroborate their findings with examples of recent court cases, and highlight the issues likely to arise with implementation, especially de-reservation.
Panchsutras for carrying out a successful Governance Transformation
Following his last piece, which put forth a Governance Matrix that could be used assess a government system’s readiness to drive outcomes, Gaurav Goel puts forth five principles, or panchsutras, which are critical for the success of a governance transformation. Using the example of the Swachh Bharat Mission-Grameen, he shows that these principles are key to not only spurring the system into action, but also maintaining momentum towards achieving a goal, and ensuring long-term sustainability of the transformation
The Governance Matrix: Understanding a system’s readiness for change
To explain the gap between the expectation of perfect outcomes and the reality of an imperfect system, Gaurav Goel puts forth The Governance Matrix, a tool which can be used to assess the readiness of a government to successfully implement initiatives. He explains the two axes – political salience and system capacity – along which political systems can move; based on this, he posits four states in which governments can exist, and examines the potential for sustainable change in each of the quadrants.
The panchayat asset register: An instrument to conserve India’s commons
With common lands making up nearly a quarter of Indian territory, the State has taken steps to protect them from encroachment. The Indian Constitution grants panchayats custodial rights to protect village commons. Chandran and Singh discuss the issues panchayats face in exercising this function, including the lack of knowledge or capacity to maintain asset registers of common lands. They suggest improving access to data and information, and institutionalising land audits to enable better governance of common lands.
Electricity Act amendment: The need for a cautious approach
The recently proposed amendment to the Electricity Act, 2003 comes after nearly two decades with few legislative changes. In this post, Dixit and Josey review electricity sector developments, especially technology driven changes during that time, and discuss the positive effects that some of the proposed amendments would have on the sector's functioning. At the same time, they highlight aspects of the amendments that pose further questions and should be approached with caution.
How colonial is Indian law?
Critiques of the colonial rule in India and its legacy have been extended to law – with many allusions to the need to shake off the yoke of the colonial legacy. In this post, Roy and Swamy unpack the legacy of colonial rule in India on its present-day legal system, with a focus on three broad domains pertaining to economic activity – land, corporate and company law, and environment and natural resources.
Budget and politics in pandemic times
Applying a political economy lens to the recently announced Budget 2022-23, Yamini Aiyar contends that the emphasis on capital expenditure over welfare in the two Budgets announced during the pandemic are a mere continuation of a shift in political narrative towards “market-friendly reforms” that began with the Modi government’s re-election in 2019.
Improving public service delivery by fixing payment systems
Fixing how funds flow through the government systems grabs far fewer headlines than malnutrition, problems in the education sector, or crumbling infrastructure. In this post, Charity Troyer Moore contends that payment systems are fundamental to improving these development outcomes, and challenges to them pervade government functioning across sectors, programmes, and locations. She examines the key issues, and what Budget 2022-23 can do to fix them.
2021 West Bengal Assembly election: Did the Covid-19 surge matter?
In the recent Assembly elections in the state of West Bengal, the ruling Trinamool Congress bucked an anti-incumbency headwind to secure victory. Using electoral data from 2016, 2019, and 2021, Ghatak and Maitra analyse the change in vote shares of the contesting parties, examining the relative balance of pro- and anti-incumbency forces at work, aspects of gender and religious polarisation, as well as the impact of the Covid-19 surge.
The digital dream: Upskilling India for the future
While the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the pace at which technology is becoming commonplace in our lives, it has also exposed a stark digital divide, leaving a large proportion of India’s population out of this paradigm shift. Using 2017-18 National Sample Survey data, Mumtaz and Mothkoor highlight variations in digital literacy across states and union territories of the country, and discuss government efforts in this context.
Rising industrial accidents: Fallout of boosting ‘Ease of Doing Business’?
India has witnessed a surge in severe fire and explosion-related accidents in industrial and commercial establishments, in recent years. In this post, R Nagaraj contends that perhaps the dilution – or rather the effective abolition – of industrial labour and safety regulations undertaken to boost India's rank in the World Bank's global index of Ease of Doing Business, may be the culprit.
When criminality begets crime: The role of elected politicians
The criminalisation of politics has become a massive threat to society. While the impact of criminally accused leaders on economic outcomes has been studied in the literature, little is known about their effect on the crime environment of the jurisdiction. Analysing data from India for 2009-2018, this article shows that in districts with weak rule of law, an additional criminally accused leader leads to 64 more criminal cases.
DUET: Decentralise employment generation to urban local bodies
Dilip Mookherjee supports Drèze’s suggestion to decentralise employment generation to urban local bodies, and contends that the moribund nature of urban local government is a key reason for the neglect of urban renewal, sanitation, and public health so far. However, more thought needs to be devoted to issues of corruption and potential for politicisation, as well as funding.
Kerala’s management of Covid-19: Key learnings
Kerala was the first Indian state to be affected by Covid-19 with the highest number of cases at one point in time, but today it has a flat infection curve and one of the highest recovery rates in India. In this post, S.M. Vijayanand, Chief Secretary (Retd.) of the Government of Kerala, analyses Kerala’s experience in managing the Covid-19 crisis in the state and highlights critical takeaways for other states.
Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Issues and gaps in service delivery and access
The Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana is a much-needed and purposeful scheme, given the health hazards faced by women inside households as 79% of rural Indian households still depend on traditional unclean energy sources for cooking. In this post, Rahul Ranjan contends that unless the energy policy in non-agricultural sector encourages the use of alternative energy, replacement of traditional fuels within households is unlikely to happen at large scale.
There are none so blind as they who will not see
Based on Government of India’s own data, the government and the community of economists in India have come up with different narratives about the position of Indian economy. In this post, Pronab Sen highlights the differences between the two narratives. He also expresses concern over the kind of response government is taking to combat the current economic slowdown, which is fully consistent with its own narrative and completely ignores the other.
Using mobiles to improve governance
Measuring how well major public programmes are implemented remains a core governance challenge. With the increasing mobile-phone penetration in the country, Muralidharan, Niehaus, Sukhtankar, and Weaver make the case for leveraging this powerful tool to improve public service delivery.
Strengthen MNREGS to support the rural economy
India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) has generated a lot of controversy about its effectiveness as a safety net designed to benefit landless rural households. Muralidharan, Niehaus, and Sukhtankar discuss the results from a large-scale randomised evaluation that suggest MNREGS may be a surprisingly effective tool both for improving the welfare of the landless rural poor and increasing overall rural productivity.
Need for a choice-based approach in PDS
A large share of public spending on the Public Distribution System (PDS), India’s flagship food security programme, does not reach intended beneficiaries. Thus, the idea of Direct Benefits Transfer (DBT) in lieu of subsidised food has emerged as a leading policy alternative. Muralidharan, Niehaus, and Sukhtankar recommend a simple but powerful approach: rather than policymakers deciding between PDS and DBT, we could give beneficiaries that choice.
Indian economy: High performer or Potemkin village?
The recent schizophrenic commentary on the health of the Indian economy raises questions on the true state: Is India doing really well or are we just seeing an impressive facade? In this post, Amartya Lahiri contends that the last four years blessed India with a wonderful external climate along with widespread domestic support for reforms to free up private enterprise. Having missed that opportunity we are reduced to parading ‘Potemkin villages’.
Bank and its critics
There has been a lot of commentary in recent weeks on the Reserve Bank of India, around its capital base, performance, and autonomy. In this post, Amartya Lahiri contends that RBI has a more coherent case on these issues than its critics. Central banks need to be adequately capitalised in order to perform their core functions, which include being the lender of last resort for the banking system.
Food subsidy – PDS, cash, or both?
Should food subsidies – currently availed in the form of subsidised cereals – be given out in the form of cash instead? In this post, Krishna and Agrawal contend that rather than asking this binary question, it might be more cost-effective and welfare-enhancing to consider: where is PDS, and where might cash be, the better policy response for serving the same need?
Protecting data privacy: Authorisation and access control
The B.N. Srikrishna Committee, which was constituted in August 2017 to draft India’s data protection laws, is expected to submit its final recommendations this month. In this post, Banerjee and Sharma discuss key features of the Committee’s White Paper, and advocate authorisation and access control as a viable framework for privacy-by-design.
New ideas for fighting corruption in India
Even as technological innovations have reduced petty bribery, it is clear that bigger forms of corruption are flourishing in India. In this post, Avinash Dixit and Ritika Mankar propose the formation of a ‘business community institution’ to address the issue. They highlight some cross-country evidence on fighting corruption, to derive the critical features of the institution, which should make it more successful than efforts made so far.
Why governments across the globe are cracking down on civic organisations
Dupuy, Ron and Prakash content that NGOs need to generate resources from the communities they serve. This will make them accountable to these communities and enhance their legitimacy, and incentivise local communities to step up and protect the civic sector from governmental interference.
Governance and public service delivery in India
The International Growth Centre recently produced a synthesis paper (Afridi 2017) bringing together insights from its research on governance and public service delivery in India, over the past seven years. At a workshop organised by the IGC in collaboration with Ideas for India and Indian Statistical Institute, Amarjeet Sinha (Ministry of Rural Development), Rajesh Mahapatra (Hindustan Times), and Sandip Sukhtankar (University of Virginia) discussed the findings on key governance challenges and what can be done to address them.
Why 'free' speech is not always 'costless'
A recent CBI raid at the premises of the owners of NDTV has sparked off yet another round of debates about freedom of the media, the spectre of authoritarianism, and freedom of expression in India. In this article, Maitreesh Ghatak contends that confusion over what ‘free speech’ means stems from equating the two different senses in which it is used: free as in unconstrained, and free in the sense of not having a price or cost.
The state of the economy and mass perception
In this article, Ashwini Kulkarni of NGO Pragati Abhiyan contends that the media should tap into the knowledge of practitioners that are familiar with the ground realities of social sector schemes – rather than those outside the sector - with regard to budget-related and other discussions on the sector. This will help provide the masses with a real picture of the developmental problems plaguing the economy.
A proposal for public funding of elections and political parties in India
The Finance Minister of India recently introduced measures aimed at cleaning up political party funding in the country. In this article, Gowda and Santhosh highlight the limitations of these measures, and alternatively propose public funding of elections and political parties to improve electoral processes and outcomes.
Free speech and the rule of law
In this article, Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, argues that the fight over freedom of expression in India is a shadow fight; the real fight is about preserving the sanctity of our law-enforcement and judicial institutions to protect freedoms of any kind.
Rural development programmes: Implementation challenges and solutions
With a majority of the population living in rural areas in India, rural development is key to the development of the country. Based on his experience of working closely with the district administration in Purulia district in West Bengal, Pushkar Pahwa discusses the issues in the implementation of rural development programmes on the ground, and makes suggestions to improve their effectiveness.
Deconstructing the global wave of right-wing populism
At present, there seems to be palpable reaction against ideas of tolerance, minority rights, freedom of expression, and respect for individual autonomy and dignity, in many parts of the world. In this article, Pranab Bardhan contends that global traits of the populist right suggest how liberals can take it on.
Unique Health Identification and Aadhaar: A case for mandatory linkage
As part of the Digital India initiative, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) issues a Unique Health Identification (UHID) number to each patient, which documents their entire journey in the hospital. AIIMS has called for a mandatory linkage between UHID and Aadhaar. In this article, Mudit Kapoor, Associate Professor at ISI Delhi Centre, explains how this step can have significant positive implications for delivery and democratisation of healthcare.
Surrogacy bill: Implications and way forward
Contributing to the ongoing debate on India’s surrogacy bill, Dutta and Sarkar discuss the potential implications of the bill on the country’s billion-dollar surrogacy industry. They contend that India could follow in the footsteps of Israel and adopt a more pragmatic and holistic approach to regulating commercial surrogacy, rather than banning it altogether.
Banning commercial surrogacy in India
In an attempt to protect the welfare of surrogate mothers, the Indian government has proposed to introduce legislation that will ban commercial surrogacy in the country. In this article, Ajit Karnik, Professor of Economics, Middlesex University, Dubai, discusses the threats that are associated with the welfare of surrogate mothers and argues that a ban would compromise their interests further as it would inevitably lead to the emergence of an illegal market for such transactions.
Modi and his challenges: Leading India on its march to prosperity
Despite Narendra Modi’s successful leadership as Chief Minister of Gujarat, some question his ability to achieve the same progress at the national level as India’s Prime Minister. In this article, Rajiv Kumar analyses Modi’s political background and state- and national-level experience to assess his capacity to navigate India through a politically and economically important time towards its goal of becoming a prosperous economy.
Surrogacy bill: Boon or ban(e)?
The Surrogacy (Regulation) Bill, 2016 proposes a complete ban on commercial surrogacy and restrictions on altruistic surrogacy. In this article, Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics, contends that the bill does not provide any compelling argument for the ban. Rather, by singling out those who are not even allowed the option of altruistic surrogacy, it reveals its biases.
Missing the target: NDA's not-so-rosy report card on social policy
In this article, Parikshit Ghosh, Associate Professor of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, assesses the performance of the social sector under the NDA government at the end of two years in office.
The tussle between RBI and Ministry of Finance: A different dimension
The popular belief about the tussle between RBI and the Ministry of Finance is that it is an issue of the trade-off between inflation and economic growth, with the former more focussed on controlling high inflation and the latter emphasising high growth. However, according to Gurbachan Singh, there is a different dimension to the story; the Ministry doesn’t fully appreciate that RBI cannot ignore market forces while making announcements about interest rates.
The first two years of Modi government
In this article, Pranab Bardhan, Professor of Graduate School at the Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, provides his perspective on the performance of the Modi government in its first two years in office.
Aadhaar Bill: UID without excessively compromising privacy?
Can something like UID be created without compromising privacy beyond acceptable limits? If so, how should the Aadhaar Bill have been written? What are its specific and avoidable weaknesses?
Aadhaar Bill: Move towards a surveillance State?
Most advanced economies have had some version of UID for a long time, example, the Social Security number in the US, the Social Insurance Number in Canada, etc. This is recorded not only in interactions with the State (example, tax filing) but also in many kinds of non-governmental transactions (example, college admissions or property purchase). Yet, it is arguable that these nations have not become police States, occasional abuse notwithstanding. If privacy concerns in India are justified, is it a reflection of the trust deficit in government specific to India (or poorer countries more generally)? Or do schemes like UID inevitably lead to a surveillance State anywhere in the world?
Aadhaar Bill and government benefits: Better targeting and reduced corruption?
Supporters of Aadhaar express the hope that will reduce inclusion errors and corruption by eliminating ghost beneficiaries, say in schemes like MNREGA. Are there substantial benefits to be reaped on this account?
Quality of governance and welfare outcomes
As the MDGs gave way to the SDGs, considerable attention has been focussed on movements in key welfare indicators for women and children in the past decade. In this context, this column compares India with Bangladesh, and also looks at the relative performance of Indian states. Further, it provides evidence on the strength of association between the quality of governance and welfare outcomes in India.
Aadhaar Bill and government benefits: Risk of increasing exclusion?
Supporters of Aadhaar express the hope that will reduce inclusion errors and corruption by eliminating ghost beneficiaries, say in schemes like MNREGA. Are there substantial benefits to be reaped on this account? Tweet using: #AadhaarBill
Aadhaar Bill: Incremental information-gathering powers for government?
The government already has the means to collect a lot of information on citizens (example, phone conversations and logs, credit card transactions, income tax records, bank account details, etc.). Conversely, there are many activities which happen under the radar (example, cash transactions, informal sector employment, etc.). What kind of information-gathering powers will Aadhaar confer on the State over and above what it already has?
Rethinking clientelism: Politics of service delivery in rural India
Clientelism is often blamed for public service delivery failures in developing countries. While the top-down drivers of political support in exchange for service delivery for specific constituents is well-documented, local grassroots influence and the effect of democratic mobilisation by local communities are less well-understood. This column looks at the value of combining top-down influence with bottom-up community mobilisation to exert stronger pressures on improving anti-poverty programme outcomes.
How are India's new states faring?
In the year 2000, three new states – Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand – were carved out of the large states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh respectively. This column analyses the performance of the new entities before and after breakup, and in relation to their respective rump states.
Asking the right question to get the right policy
There is consensus in the development community on the importance of bridging the gap between researchers and practitioners; however, misaligned incentives underlie this gap. In this article, Pande, Moore and Dodge of Harvard Kennedy School, explain how bringing policymakers together with researchers to work more iteratively ensured that data from MNREGS - the world’s largest public works programme - became accessible and relevant to those who use it.
A conversation on development - II
Parikshit Ghosh (Member of the I4I Editorial Board & Associate Professor of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) speaks with Kaushik Basu (Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World Bank and former Chief Economic Adviser, Government of India) on issues ranging from the use of economic knowledge in policy decisions, role of values in public service delivery, to the need for pluralism and tolerance for economic growth, and the importance of communicating good ideas effectively to policymakers and the general public. This part of the interview focuses on India-specific issues. This is the fourth in the series of I4I Conversations.
Unleashing the full potential of India's 'Open Government Data' initiative
In October 2012, India embarked upon its ‘Open Government Data’ journey, by opening up access to government-owned shareable data in machine-readable formats for the use of general public. In this article, Natasha Agarwal, an independent research economist, discusses issues in the design and implementation of the initiative particularly through the lens of its governing policy - the National Data Sharing and Accessibility Policy, and makes recommendations to enhance its effectiveness in achieving stated objectives.
Bihar's alcohol ban: Prudent policy or tail-chasing?
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s decision to implement prohibition in the state from 1 April 2016 is based on the rationale that alcohol consumption is the primary reason for violence against women. In this article, Kumar and Prakash argue that a blanket ban on alcohol won’t stem violence against women – but making alcohol costlier may help.
Intimidation, imitation, economics: Why youth are taking to terror
Men between the ages of 18 and 35 become terrorists, and it is the same demographic that supplies drug dealers, violent criminals, and foot soldiers of political parties. Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics at MIT, contends that the pattern may be explained by factors such as the power of conformity, intimidation by the local big guy, finding the possibility of violence exciting, and frustration with economic prospects.
Democracy, inclusion, and prosperity
In his speech at the D.D. Kosambi Ideas Festival in February 2015 in Goa, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan put on his hat as a professor of political economy and spoke about the development of a liberal market democracy.
Bihar verdict: Development, cow politics, and caste
The Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance of JD(U)-RJD-Congress defeated the Modi-led NDA in the recent Bihar assembly elections. In this article, Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, analyses the role of alternative models of development associated with the two leaders, divisive social issues, and caste-based politics in the verdict.
Breaking the silence on growing intolerance
Recent violent incidents in the country indicate a growing intolerance towards those whom we disagree with, as well as an unwillingness of politicians to defend the rights of people to speak and live as they wish. In this article, Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics at MIT, contends that this is not just a Hindu problem or that of religion. There is a need for the political culture to imbibe our long intellectual tradition of liberal thought.
The political economy of data
Recent experiences, especially from Scandinavian countries, show that opening administrative data sources can substantially improve public policymaking. In this article, Pande and Blum contend that while investment in data infrastructure is needed to produce and use statistics, the decision to collect and open data also depends on political economy considerations. Such forces are particularly strong in India and pose a major constraint on effective policy reform.
The need for police reform
The police in India are still mainly governed by the Police Act of 1861. In this article, Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics at MIT, emphasises the need for police reform in order to check misuse of power by the State.
Why numbers matter
The delayed and partial release of data from the ‘Rapid Survey on Children’ by the Indian government has given rise to questions and speculation. In this article, former bureaucrat V. Ramani discusses the broader issue of the lack of suitable, public data on the social sector in India and the inability or unwillingness of the government to use existing data to monitor outcomes.
Should the less educated be barred from village council elections?
In December 2014, the state government of Rajasthan issued an executive order barring citizens with less than eight years of formal education from running for village council chief elections in all but tribal areas. In this article, Rohini Pande, Professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, contends that this will discriminate against able leaders who have been denied schooling because of gender, poverty or caste.
Three concerns about AAP's promise
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has come to power in Delhi with a historic mandate. In this article, V Ramani, Partner at Access Advisory and former bureaucrat, flags three key concerns around their approach towards tackling corruption, public finance, and economic growth.
An economist's view on the new government's initiatives
In this article, Pranab Bardhan, Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, provides his perspective on some of the initiatives of the new Indian government at the centre in their first six months in office – Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Jan Dhan Yojana, ‘Make in India’ campaign, and the proposed changes to MNREGA. In his view, inefficient subsidies must give way to a basic monthly income for all citizens.
Response to the Bhagwati-Panagariya rejoinder on MNREGA
In a recent article, Abreu et al. refuted the Bhagwati-Panagariya argument for phasing out MNREGA in favour of cash transfers. In this article, Abreu et al. respond to claims in a rejoinder by Bhagwati-Panagariya, regarding net benefits of MNREGA employment, the self-selection feature of the programme, and rural asset creation.
The Bihar story: Resurrection of the state
In the not so distant past, the Indian state of Bihar was a byword for corruption, lawlessness, poverty, and absence of governance. Over the last decade or so, the state has demonstrated a remarkable turnaround and has consistently been amongst the fastest growing regions in the country. At IGC Growth Week, Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi outlined the key initiatives that made this possible.
A conversation on Bihar
I4I Guest Editor Karthik Muralidharan (Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego) speaks with Anjani Kumar Singh (Chief Secretary, Government of Bihar) during the IGC Growth Week in London, on issues ranging from the successes and challenges of Bihar in the past five years, constraints on industrialisation, skilling, spatial distribution of development, to frequent transfer of bureaucrats and role of research inputs in policymaking.
Saving people's livelihoods
The new government is seeking to alter the essence of MNREGA based on the premise that it is not useful in its current form. In this article, Sudha Narayanan criticises the move and argues that despite its shortcomings, MNREGA is the best available institutional mechanism to preserve the resource base for food production and build resilience of Indian agriculture.
Governance by ordinance
The UPA government recently explored taking the ordinance route to promulgate six anti-corruption bills. This article traces the shift from the post-Independence culture of healthy parliamentary debate in India, to ordinance-making powers becoming a procedural device to pass bills without debate. In the interest of a well-functioning democracy, it emphasises the need for the Legislature to engage in debate on legislation, and for the Executive to moderate its ordinance-making powers.
India's illiberal speech climate
India’s cultural watchdogs and hate speech laws are increasingly seeking to restrict free expression in the country. This article contends that the right to take offence is fundamentally incompatible with the right to speak freely, and outlines three reasons for protecting free speech.
Re-conceptualising crime and punishment
A Delhi court has awarded the death penalty to the convicts in the December 2012 gangrape incident. This article discusses the moral basis and dangers of relying on this form of punishment for deterring crime and providing justice. It proposes an approach that focuses on effective policing and law enforcement for crime prevention, together with measures of restitution for both the offender and the victim.
UID project: Does evidence matter?
The Indian government has been pushing to make UID compulsory, and is now moving towards charging for use of authentication services. This article asserts that the three key selling points of UID – corruption control, inclusion and portability – have been achieved in several states in major welfare programmes, by creatively using simpler technology that is free of the hassles attached to UID.
Some reflections on the National Food Security Act
The Food Security Bill became an Act with little parliamentary opposition. Yet the public debate has lingered. Would subsidised food grains reduce malnutrition? Won’t it be better to invest in health and education instead? Can we afford the cost of subsidising food for such a large chunk of the population? Should we continue to waste money on the flawed PDS system? How will the grain markets be affected? This column offers a perspective on these important questions.
A suggestion for WTO negotiations
India’s new food security law is likely to breach WTO’s limit on farmer support. India is keen to ask for a temporary exemption from the rule so that the law can be implemented unhindered. But, in return, it may have to agree on trade facilitation. This article argues that while our food procurement policies do need reform, there is no link between the food security law and free trade.
Doing a number on the Food Security Bill
In a recent article, Kotwal, Murugkar and Ramaswami pointed out errors in estimation by Surjit Bhalla that led him to assert that the Food Security Bill will increase cost of food subsidy by 336%, and presented correct costs of the Bill. Bhalla then defended his methodology and calculations and criticised the authors’ arguments. This article responds to Bhalla’s defence, and says that the astronomical estimates of the Bill are irrelevant.
How can Indians be happier?
The recently released World Happiness Report 2013 seeks to go beyond Gross Domestic Product and the Human Development Index to understand what really matters to people for their well-being. It is found that perceived social support and the effectiveness and honesty of the government are strongly associated with citizens’ life evaluations in India.
Correct costs of the Food Security Bill
In a recent article, Surjit Bhalla has asserted that the Food Security Bill will increase costs of food grain subsidy by 336%. Correcting errors in his calculation brings this figure down to 18%. In this article, the authors explain the errors and present the correct cost figures of the Bill.
Economists on the wrong foot
This article asserts that the Sen-Bhagwati debate misses out two crucial elements – communities as agents of development, and ecological sustainability. It emphasises the importance of community empowerment, and backing community initiatives through state policies.
Getting India wrong
In this article, Partha Dasgupta argues that deliberations on economic development, as in the recently published books by Bhagwati-Panagariya and Dreze-Sen respectively, are of little instrumental use if they ignore the role that high population growth and environmental destruction play in the persistence of poverty.
The National Food Security Ordinance: Five misconceptions
The National Food Security Ordinance was promulgated in July 2013. The public debate that ensued, especially the criticism in the business media, has tended to be either devoid of facts or factually incorrect. This article attempts to correct the terms of the debate with relevant facts.
I4I turns 1!
It has been a year since the voice of ‘Ideas for India’ was first heard. Our mission was to be an outlet for evidence-based arguments on a wide set of issues relevant to Indian growth and development. We had hoped then that this would be a voice that would clarify rather than obscure, a distinct voice that would grow on you. Have our hopes been realised? That is for the readers to judge. We in the Editorial Board feel that this has been an exhilarating ride so far.
Star Wars
Debraj Ray gets to the heart of the growth versus redistribution debate and argues that a sectoral imbalance in growth is inevitable. While occupational choice is an important way to deal with this, it is slow and imprecise. Action on the part of the government may be critical to even things out.
Food Bill: Neither populist nor unaffordable
Criticism of the National Food Security Bill has led to the government dropping the idea of issuing an Ordinance and instead, saying it would try to get the Bill passed in a special session of Parliament. This article addresses some of the key questions raised by critics of the Bill.
Turn Right or Left? Or is there a middle way?
Dilip Mookherjee shares his perspective on the recent Bhagwati versus Sen debate. While Sen represents the pro-state-led assistance stand and Bhagwati is seen as pro-market, what India requires is the right combination of prescriptions from both camps to effectively combat poverty.
Food deprivation: A thali index reveals what poverty estimates do not
Poverty in India is typically estimated based on a poverty line that identifies the purchasing power needed to satisfy the daily calorific intake deemed necessary. In this post, Balakrishnan and Raj measure the standard of living in terms of a ‘thali meal’. Based on the extent of food deprivation that they find, they argue for a review of poverty measurement in India.
Poverty is bad – but is vulnerability worse?
Official data reveal that poverty in India has declined significantly over time. In this post, Kamila and Wadhwa make the case for policy discourse to shift towards the phenomenon of ‘vulnerability’. Presenting their view on alternative methods of quantifying vulnerability, they highlight the challenges of leveraging existing data for this purpose and the kinds of data that would be needed to capture the essence of vulnerability.
Impact of the Food Security Act on Public Distribution System
‘Leakages’ from the Public Distribution System – that is, grain released by the Food Corporation of India that fails to reach consumers – stood at around 42% in 2011-12 at an all-India level. Passed in 2013, the National Food Security Act guaranteed food security and mandated PDS reforms. As anticipated, based on data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, Reetika Khera shows that leakages were down to 22% by 2022-23.
The problem of India’s stagnant real wages
New data from the Labour Bureau and the National Sample Survey Office point to a virtual stagnation of real wages in India over the past decade. In this post, Das and Drèze argue that this trend points to a deep crisis in the country’s informal sector, and warrants a lot more policy attention that it has hitherto received
Determining how many Indians are poor today
Poverty debates in India have seen a revival since the release of a fact sheet from the 2022-23 household consumption expenditure survey. In this post, Ghatak and Kumar note that the general consensus among researchers is that extreme poverty is under 5%. However, they contest this by digging deeper into how the poverty line is determined and conclude that in the absence of detailed data necessary for calculation of an updated poverty line, doubts will remain about the estimates of extreme poverty
India’s rising ruralisation defies claims of declining poverty
Building on some of the key contributions to the Great Indian Poverty Debate, Dhananjay Sinha assesses the economic transformation in India over the past few decades. He outlines the lack of private capital expenditure and declining per capita income in India. He also discusses the growth of the agricultural sector, and how this increased ruralisation affects the demand for food grains and other consumer goods. With this evidence, he concludes that the claims of declining poverty may be unfounded.
Could job creation be a driver of poverty reduction in India?
While the Indian economy continues to grow, there is a consensus that creating more jobs is vital to reduce poverty. Ejaz Ghani shares trends which suggest that job creation is being driven by cities and small and young firms, but entrepreneurial growth in India has slowed down due to inadequate infrastructure and distorted factor markets. He suggests that the path to job creation and poverty reduction is scaling up local investments in education and infrastructure, and not chasing large firms.
Weighty evidence? Poverty estimation with missing data
Attempts have been made to estimate poverty in India with biased survey data, by adjusting household weights to remove the bias. Based on simulation exercises with artificially contaminated household surveys, Drèze and Somanchi illustrate the limitations of this method. Its ability to correct poverty estimates varies wildly, depending on the nature of the underlying bias, which may be hard to guess – there lies the rub. When the bias changes over time, estimating poverty trends becomes truly problematic.
Finding the indiscernible poor: Community knowledge as a targeting approach
Varying estimates of poverty have often resulted in some deprived communities being excluded from government welfare schemes. Sabarwal and Chowdhry look at the case of Satat Jeevikoparjan Yojana in Bihar, which uses the mechanisms recommended by BRAC’s Graduation Approach and harnesses community knowledge to identify those living in extreme poverty and ensure that they receive access to social protection schemes. They discuss how this targeting approach takes into account non-monetary deprivation, and ensures the inclusion of women and marginalised groups.
Statistical priorities for the ‘Great Indian Poverty Debate 2.0’
In the final post of a six-part series on the estimation of poverty in India, Himanshu summarises attempts by researchers to estimate poverty using three varied approaches, given the lack of official consumption expenditure data. He considers the validity of recent estimates against the reality of declining wages. His view remains that if the outstanding statistical issues outlined here aren’t resolved, the upcoming NSS estimates on consumption expenditure will not end, but likely spark, a third round of the poverty debate.
Filling a gaping hole in the World Bank’s global poverty measures
In the fifth post of a six part series on the estimation of poverty in India, Martin Ravallion provides a non-technical summary of Roy and van der Weide's working paper. He discusses some of their main findings, which show that not only has the poverty rate continued to decline, but rural and urban poverty measures have been converging. He notes that although fewer people live at or near the consumption floor, the benchmark has not changed much since 2011.
The Great Indian Poverty Debate, 2.0
In the third post of a six part series on estimating poverty in India, Justin Sandefur considers the approaches employed for projections of poverty estimates since 2011-12 – the last year for which official estimates are available. He highlights the novel and creative solutions used by two recent working papers to fill the gap. But given other economic indicators and quality of National Accounts data, he expresses scepticism over the optimistic headline poverty figures proffered by both papers.
Extreme poverty in India is yet to be eliminated: A comment on BBV
In the fourth post of a six-part series on the estimation of poverty in India, Sinha Roy and van der Weide reflect on the dramatically different estimates produced by two studies, and the source of the discrepancy. They put the estimates from the papers side by side in order to investigate three likely causes for this – using consistent data sources to determine pass-through rates, incompatibility in pass-through and growth rate series, and the incorporation of subsidies into the calculations of household expenditure.
Has India eliminated extreme poverty?
In the second post of a six-part series on Gaurav Datt unpacks the claim that India was on the verge of eliminating extreme poverty, and questions two key assumptions on which it rests. Rather, he shows that the survey capture ratio has been declining, while top income shares have been rising over the last decade. He finally presents some alternative estimates, which call into question the elimination of extreme poverty.
Measuring poverty in the absence of Consumption Expenditure Survey data
In the first post of a six-part series on , Surjit Bhalla and Karan Bhasin discuss issues related to measurement of absolute poverty in India. They summarise their IMF working paper from April 2022, and defend their assumption of unity pass-through and impact of food transfers. They point out shortcomings in certain measurement approaches, including the World Bank’s reliance on the outdated Uniform Recall Period, and cite other poverty estimates which corroborate their own findings.
Fatal oblivion: India's National Family Benefit Scheme
The National Family Benefit Scheme (NFBS) – which provides financial assistance to families in the event of the death of a breadwinner – has been plagued by low budget allocations, restricted coverage, and administrative hurdles. In this post, Jasmin Naur Hafiz examines these and other implementation issues facing the scheme, and advocates for revamping and consolidating this critical component of India’s social security framework.
Not by growth alone: The salience of redistribution in poverty eradication
Recent studies posit that per capita incomes of developing countries are finally on track to catch up to those of industrialised countries. In this post, Enevoldsen and Pande contend that this country-level catch-up will not be sufficient to eradicate extreme poverty, as the blessings of this ‘growth’ are not reaching the poor. Inclusive prosperity requires a political solution: redistribution.
MNREGA funds allocation: Honouring the work-on-demand guarantee
The Centre has sought an additional Rs. 25,000 crore as funding for MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act). Based on simple calculations using official data, Ashwini Kulkarni contends that the actual fund requirement is in fact much higher. As the pandemic continues to adversely impact rural livelihoods, the government should allocate sufficient funds to MNREGA, in order to honour the work-on-demand guarantee.
The Covid-19 crisis and food security
India’s national lockdown in 2020, imposed to contain the spread of Covid-19, threw millions of people out of work and sharply reduced earnings for those who remained employed. Based on data from multi-state surveys, Drèze and Somanchi highlight the devastating impact of the pandemic on food security, and make a case for stronger relief measures.
How many jobs were lost in urban India during lockdown?
The nationwide lockdown imposed in March 2020 to contain the spread of Covid-19, disrupted economic activity – particularly in urban India. Using data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey for the period April-June 2020, Mitra and Singh examine job losses in urban areas. They find that the secondary and tertiary sectors were more adversely affected than agriculture, and more women than men dropped out of the labour force.
DUET re-examined
In September 2020, Jean Drèze’s proposal for an urban work programme called DUET (Decentralised Urban Employment and Training) was presented on I4I. This was followed by an extensive symposium in whicheminent economists and practitioners provided their perspectives on the proposal. In this post, Drèze updates his original proposal in one important respect, by suggesting that the programme should be run by and for urban women. Responding to some of the key comments and questions of the symposium contributors, he argues that the best way to assess the efficacy of DUET in practice is to give it a chance.
A review of the coverage of PDS
The coverage of the Public Distribution System (PDS) has been of wide interest due to the pandemic and lockdown. Based on government data sources, Khera and Somanchi estimate the state-wise coverage of PDS and map the categories of food support. They find that despite the expansion of PDS with the enactment of the National Food Security Act, and state ‘top-ups’ beyond central support, over 400 million people are excluded from it.
DUET: Employment programme in public works in small towns
Given the severe problems of unemployment and under-employment in urban India, particularly among the country’s burgeoning youth population, Pranab Bardhan emphasises the need for an employment programme in urban public works. In his view, such a programme should be inclusive, local government-driven, and prioritise projects that serve environmental and health goals in small towns.
DUET: Towards employment as a universal right
Debraj Ray contends that we should push forward with the agenda of employment as a universal right, and DUET would move that needle. He discusses two aspects of the proposal – keeping track of workers, and keeping track of projects.
Covid-19: How long can consumption be sustained in lockdown?
In May 2020, the Finance Minister announced an economic relief package totaling Rs. 20 trillion, in response to the Covid-19 crisis. However, the actual stimulus is estimated to be only 1.3% of GDP. In this post, Khan and Abraham assess the earning loss of workers during different phases of the lockdown, and contend that, even if we consider just the earning loss of workers in the informal sector, the actual stimulus in the package should have amounted to at least 3% of GDP.
Covid-19 relief: Are women Jan Dhan accounts the right choice for cash transfers?
While the relief package announced by the Government of India for Covid-19 rightly complements food rations with cash transfers, the case for using the list of women Jan Dhan bank accounts for the latter is not clear. In this post, Anmol Somanchi estimates the coverage of these accounts, and finds that more than half of all women, andshows that a little less than half of all households are likely be excluded from cash relief and discusses other limitations of this approach.
Webinar: Impact of Covid-19 on informal and migrant workers in India
The International Growth Centre (IGC), in collaboration with I4I, organised a Webinar on 'The impact of Covid-19 on informal and migrant workers in India', with Jean Drèze (Ranchi University), Farzana Afridi (Indian Statistical Institute), Purnima Menon (IFPRI), and Shahid Vaziralli (IGC), on 13 May 2020.
Covid-19: What can be done immediately to help vulnerable population
With over 80% of India’s workforce employed in the informal sector and one-third working as casual labour, Covid-19's spread and subsequent unplanned lockdowns, have created economic havoc in the lives of millions. In this post, Reetika Khera puts forward suggestions on what can be done to help people immediately, ranging from cash and in-kind assistance to special measures for migrants in urban areas and urgent health-related measures.
EWS reservation in higher education: Affirmative action or vote bank politics?
The Constitution (103rd Amendment) Act, 2019, provides for 10% reservation for the economically weaker sections (EWS) in higher educational institutions within the general category. In this post, Devika Malhotra Sharma argues that the reservation would adversely affect all the other oppressed categories by shrinking the competitive pool of seats accessible to them. Further, it does not seem justifiable as candidates from EWS are already well-represented in higher educational institutions.
What do poor people think about direct cash transfers?
Based on a survey conducted over November-December 2018 with 3,800 respondents in rural Bihar, Khemani, Habyarimana, and Nooruddin present descriptive evidence on what the poor citizens of India think about spending public budgets on direct cash transfers rather than on other welfare programmes.
NYAY e-Symposium: Prioritise expansion of National Social Assistance Programme
Dr Pronab Sen (Country Director, IGC India) argues that the first priority should be to expand existing social security, which covers the elderly, the handicapped, and widows – given the fact that much of poverty is due to high dependency ratios. More importantly, this would be much less divisive than how NYAY is currently being envisaged.
NYAY e-symposium: Tool for addressing multidimensional poverty
Ashwini Kulkarni (Director, Pragati Abhiyan) puts forth the view that an unconditional income transfer programme like NYAY can help address multidimensional poverty and enable the most vulnerable among the poor to think beyond their survival. She suggests designing a ‘special purpose vehicle’ for the implementation of NYAY.
NYAY e-Symposium: Not long-term solution to poverty but useful ‘first-aid’
Maitreesh Ghatak (Professor of Economics, London School of Economics) contends that a cash transfer, as envisaged by NYAY, will provide some relief and a safety net to the poor living on the margins of subsistence. However, it is not clear how it will deal with the problem of targeting. Moreover, it is not a long-term solution to the problem of poverty, which requires investment in health, education, and skill formation, among other things.
NYAY e-Symposium: The potential macroeconomic impact of NYAY
Niranjan Rajadhyaksha (Research Director and Senior Fellow at IDFC Institute) contends that the estimated cost of NYAY is substantial and there is ample reason to worry about the fiscal burden of the scheme. Further, the cash infusion in the economy may lead to inflation in the middle term and hence, the real income benefits of the transfer would be reduced.
NYAY e-Symposium: Getting targeting right
Karthik Muralidharan (Tata Chancellor's Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego) recommends targeting the 20% of poorest blocks in the country under NYAY, and making the cash transfers universal or quasi-universal in those areas.
NYAY e-Symposium: Four concerns around cash transfer policies
Bharat Ramswami (Professor of Economics, Ashoka University) discusses four sets of caveats in implementing NYAY as an add-on cash transfer. He contends that the emergence of cash transfers as a sustainable tool of redistribution depends on how they mesh with existing subsidies and if they crowd out public budgets for health and education.
NYAY e-Symposium: The case for a universal basic income supplement
Pranab Bardhan (Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley) argues in favour of an income supplement, albeit one that is universal.
NYAY e-Symposium: Doing justice to NYAY
Jean Drèze (Visiting Professor, Ranchi University) discusses the role of NYAY in the larger context of social security in India, and proposes some tentative principles for the scheme
Can Rahul Gandhi’s minimum income guarantee proposal work?
Congress president Rahul Gandhi has promised a minimum income guarantee scheme for the poor if the party is voted to power in the upcoming elections. Discussing the proposal and associated concerns, Prof. Maitreesh Ghatak contends that while the idea of building up a social safety net in India is welcome, designing such schemes has to be done with much care.
Aadhaar that doesn’t exclude
Aadhaar is in the news today partly because of security concerns and partly because of reports that the poor are unable to receive PDS rations because of failures in Aadhaar authentication. In this article, Kotwal and Ramaswami focus on the latter with an eye to look for ways to bring down the exclusion errors.
Can India make a universal basic income work?
According to the Economic Survey 2016-17, universal basic income may prove to be a more effective antipoverty intervention than India’s largest welfare schemes. Discussing the Survey’s proposal, Saksham Khosla contends that while it deserves praise for bringing substantial rigour to the UBI debate, thrusting the issue into the national spotlight, and prudently concluding that the time has not yet come for implementation; its central design features offer a weak foundation for implementing UBI.
Aadhaar, biometrics, and the PDS in Jharkhand
Aadhaar-based biometric authentication was made mandatory for obtaining rations under the Public Distribution System in Ranchi district in Jharkhand in August 2016. In this article, Nazar Khalid demonstrates that even a year later, a significant fraction of cardholders is still unable to buy their foodgrain rations.
Universal basic income and the Indian macroeconomy
In this article, Shiv Hastawala discusses how, given the macroeconomic framework of India, a universal basic income could potentially have a positive impact on the economy in terms of output, employment, and inflation. Tweet using: #basicincome
Draft social security code: Will it help informal workers?
Labour law reform is considered as a key requirement for creation of new jobs as well as greater formalisation of existing jobs in India. In March this year, the Ministry of Labour and Employment brought out the draft social security code to amalgamate several Central labour laws and extend employment security to all workers. In this article, Sharmila Kantha discusses the positive features and practical aspects of the legislation.
Straw men in the debate on basic income versus targeting
A universal basic income as a poverty-reduction policy is often contrasted unfavourably with targeted transfers. In this article, Martin Ravallion argues that five of the common arguments employed against basic income are really straw men that overstate the relative effectiveness of targeted transfers. While a universal basic income is not yet feasible in many countries, more universality and less fine targeting would create better social policies.
A proposal for universal basic services
In the context of the ongoing debate on the idea of a universal basic income for India, Prof. Himanshu of Jawaharlal Nehru University argues that we first need to ensure that all citizens have access to basic services such as health and education, provided by the government.
Two views on fighting world poverty
In the previous article, Lant Pritchett critiqued Chris Blattman’s proposal to compare interventions that provide chickens rather than cash, and the view that the answer is the best investment we could make to fight world poverty. In this article, Blattman contends that he agrees that we need to focus on the big picture and growth as a society, but that there is a strong argument for directly tackling the worst poverty now.
Disintermediating the State: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty more than targeted programmes?
Commenting on the discussion of the universal basic income in India’s Economic Survey 2016-17, Justin Sandefur contends that a modest version of UBI could potentially save money and shift expenditure in a progressive, pro-poor direction.
The tale and maths of universal basic income
Commenting on the discussion on universal basic income in the recently released Economic Survey, Jean Drèze argues that UBI is an idea whose time will come, but that time is still quite distant as far as India is concerned.
Getting kinky with chickens
In the context of Bill Gates’ commitment to chickens as a high-impact poverty intervention, Chris Blattman recently proposed a study to compare interventions that provide chicken rather than cash, and said that the answer is the best investment we could make to fight world poverty. In this article, Lant Pritchett refutes this view.
Decoding universal basic income for India
In this article, Jean Drèze argues that while universal basic income is a good idea in principle, as far as India today is concerned, it sounds like premature articulation. It could also become a Trojan horse for the dismantling of hard-won entitlements of the underprivileged.
A universal basic income to step up economic reform
In this article, Nimai Mehta, Academic Director of the Global Economics and Business Program at the American University, highlights the political challenge of introducing the wider set of reforms needed if a universal basic income (UBI) is to lift the poor out of poverty, and of ensuring fiscal affordability of UBI. Further, he shares some initial ideas on how these objectives may be achieved by leveraging the evolving Centre-state relations.
Universal basic income for India
In this article, Vijay Joshi, Emeritus Fellow of Merton College, University of Oxford, sets out his proposal for a universal basic income (UBI) in India. He contends that deep fiscal adjustment, in combination with UBI, has the potential to make a huge positive difference to people’s lives, present and future.
The universal basic share and social incentives
In the previous article in the series, Debraj Ray proposes a simple amendment of the universal basic income called the universal basic share. In this article, Debraj Ray and Karl Ove Moene (University of Oslo), discuss how the universal basic share combines social considerations of fairness with incentives for the collective good.
Minimum standard of living for all Indians
In this article, T.N. Srinivasan, Samuel C. Park, Jr. Professor Emeritus of Economics, Yale University, contends that the idea of an assured minimum income for all citizens of India was being discussed as early as the 1960s, but could not be implemented then on account of certain circumstances.
The universal basic share
Debraj Ray, Professor of Economics at NYU, proposes a simple amendment of the universal basic income – what he calls the ‘universal basic share’. The idea is to commit a fixed fraction of the gross domestic product to the provision of a basic income for all.
Is India ready for a universal basic income scheme?
Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics, contends that potential resources do exist to fund a universal basic income scheme, via subsidy cuts and/or raising more tax revenue - but the real issue is whether there will be political support to do so.
Basic income in a poor country
Pranab Bardhan, Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley argues that even though universal basic income is being considered unaffordable in some developed countries, it may well be feasible and desirable in a poor to medium-income country partly on account of low poverty thresholds and existing social safety nets that are threadbare and costly to administer.
Universal basic income: The best way to welfare
Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics at MIT, suggests replacing welfare schemes of the government by a single universal basic income, which entitles every adult resident to a minimum weekly income as long as they verify their identity every week.
The 'poverty line' - II
In the second of a three-part series on the poverty line, Prof. S. Subramanian, former National Fellow, Indian Council of Social Science Research, argues that there is a built-in incentive for official poverty lines to be pitched ‘low’.
The 'poverty line' - III
In the last of a three-part series on the poverty line, Prof. S. Subramanian, former National Fellow, Indian Council of Social Science Research, discusses how the official methodology of poverty measurement in India has thrown the door open to anarchy.
MNREGA, 10 years on: Glass half-full or half-empty?
In this article, Kunal Sen, Professor of Development Economics and Policy at the University of Manchester, evaluates whether MNREGA has achieved its broader development objectives. He further analyses why the programme’s implementation has been challenging, and what the implications of weak implementation have been for its objectives.
The 'poverty line' - I
In the first of a three-part series on the poverty line, Prof. S. Subramanian, former National Fellow, Indian Council of Social Science Research, contends that the term should not be bandied about frivolously.
MNREGA: Technology vs. technocracy
In this article, Reetika Khera, Associate Professor of Economics at IIT Delhi, argues that for MNREGA to flourish in the future, technologies that empower workers should be encouraged, and the tendency to over-centralise the implementation of the programme should be reversed.
Four key administrative reforms to strengthen MNREGA
In this article, Ashwini Kulkarni of NGO Pragati Abhiyan, discusses four key administrative reforms that can strengthen the implementation of MNREGA, and enable the programme to fulfill its objectives more effectively.
MNREGA: Vision and reality
In this article, Martin Ravallion, Professor of Economics at Georgetown University, contends that the main proximate reason for MNREGA’s disappointing performance is that many people in poor areas of rural India who want work under the scheme have not been able to get it. To match the reality of MNREGA with its grand vision, poor people need to be made more aware of their rights and entitlements under the scheme, and the supply side needs to be more responsive.
Access to information and the poor
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India recently ruled against charging different subscribers different prices for data services. In this article, Martin Ravallion, Edmond D. Villani Chair of Economics at Georgetown University, contends that we certainly need to improve access of the poor to knowledge about public services that can help them, but such efforts should be explicitly targeted at them. Relying on prevailing processes of knowledge diffusion may simply reflect and even reinforce existing inequalities.
Against the tide: Deaton's economics
In a tribute to Angus Deaton, recipient of the 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics, Reetika Khera, who did her post-doctorate research at Princeton University under Deaton, outlines his India-specific contributions both as a rigorous economist and a public intellectual. She discusses Deaton’s great concern with measurement issues, and the over-reliance on randomised controlled trials as evidence for policymaking; and his support of government action for social policy.
Angus Deaton's ideas for India
In a tribute to Angus Deaton, the 2015 Nobel laureate in Economics, Diane Coffey and Dean Spears – former graduate students of Prof. Deaton at Princeton University – review some of his work on the well-being of the poor in India, and discuss the paradoxes and puzzles that still remain.
Angus Deaton: The real world economist
In a tribute to Angus Deaton, recipient of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics, Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, outlines Deaton’s contribution to economic and policy analysis, and to bridging the gap between theory and empirics. He also highlights the strong connection to India in his work.
A symposium on Piketty - II: Capitalist dynamics and the plutocrats
In the last part of the series on Piketty, Pranab Bardhan, Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, discusses the implications for further study that Piketty’s book has for developing countries such as India. He emphasises the need for collecting more serious information on wealth ownership in India.
MNREGA's swan song: Not everyone's idea of achche din
Over the last few months, the central government announced a set of measures to restrict MNREGA. The rationale essentially revolves around corruption in the scheme and lack of economic viability. In this article, Amitava Gupta refutes this justification and argues that the attack on MNREGA is a attack on the rights of the poor to a fair share in the nation’s prosperity.
(Mis)Leading attack on MNREGA
Bhagwati and Panagariya have argued for phasing out MNREGA in favour of cash transfers. In this article, Abreu et al. contend that the argument is based on inflating the costs of the programme and deflating the benefits. While they do not claim that all is well with MNREGA, they believe it needs better governance, not slow suffocation.
Is the proposed restructuring of MNREGA desirable?
The rural development ministry plans to restrict MNREGA to the 200 most backward districts, and reduce the wage component of the total expenditure of the programme. In this article, Ashwini Kulkarni - a member of the National Consortium of Civil Society Organisations working on MNREGA - argues against the proposed changes.
Please weight
The latest wealth index by New World Wealth that looks at multimillionaires has ranked India eighth in the global rich list. This article contends that looking at absolute numbers may be misleading. Accounting for population and economic differences across countries, it shows that while India does not stand out in terms of income going to the top 1%, it does in terms of income going to the top 0.1%.
Squaring the poverty circle
An expert group headed by C Rangarajan has recommended a poverty measurement methodology for India. In this article, Deaton and Drèze argue that the method proposed by the expert group to set poverty lines is both theoretically and empirically implausible. A simple and transparent benchmark, amenable to democratic debate, would be more useful.
Some thoughts on paternalism in poverty programmes
it is pretty ironic the number of conversations I have had with development people about the poor and their drinking - over drinks. – Paul Niehaus.
A second debate on the Land Acquisition Act
Of all the recently enacted parliamentary legislations, none is more important for industrial investment and growth than the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act.
What explains the steep poverty decline in India from 2004 to 2011?
Ashok Kotwal, Editor-in-Chief, Ideas for India, interviews Pronab Sen on the recent poverty figures that show a steep decline in poverty in India between 2004 and 2011. According to him, the shift in terms of trade in favour of agriculture and higher rural wages accelerated the trickle down of the fast economic growth to the poor.
Trump’s tariffs and India’s strategic response
India-US trade relations have taken a sudden and sharp turn for the worse, with the US imposing a 50% tariff rate on imports from India. In this post, Gulati, Rao and Suntwal highlight that the impact is heavily concentrated in labour-intensive sectors, which sustain millions of livelihoods. They recommend a multi-pronged strategic response: smart negotiations with the US, immediate and targeted relief to hard-hit sectors, diversification of export markets, and strong domestic reforms to restore competitiveness.
India-ASEAN economic linkages: Challenges and way forward
India’s ‘Look East’ policy picked up steam with the conceptualisation of the Indian-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement in 2003. This column analyses the broad trends in India-ASEAN trade over the past decade, delves into the challenges involved in the economic relationship, and explores possible options for the way forward.
Trends in India’s regional export diversification
The recent disruptions in global trade point to the emergence of a ‘new normal’, where flows of goods are vulnerable to factors such as conflicts, uncertain tariffs, and export restrictions. In this post, Sharmila Kantha examines the trends in India’s exports between 2017 and 2024 and deliberates on how the country can respond to this new normal through regional diversification in terms of its export markets.
India’s new FTAs: Strategic shift to developed economies
The recently concluded India-UK Free Trade Agreement is a part of a wider shift in India’s global economic strategy, which has involved a renewed focus on FTAs with developed countries. In this post, Sharmila Kantha contends that, in a changing global trade regime, India must tread with care to balance the markets to its West and East and align its geopolitical and geo-economic objectives
How the Bangladesh unrest may impact India’s trade
Bangladesh has been a major export market for India, with India traditionally enjoying a strong trade surplus with its neighbour. In this post, Pandey and Sharma provide an overview of recent trends in India-Bangladesh trade, and consider how Bangladesh’s ongoing political turmoil may impact its import demand, prospects of an India-Bangladesh free trade agreement, and India’s role in global textile trade.
The tariff tantrums
President Trump’s administration has imposed steep tariffs on countries across the world, ostensibly to promote fair trade and reduce US trade deficits. However, Parikshit Ghosh argues that these “reciprocal” tariffs lack clear economic logic and reflect a mercantilist worldview. He notes that India should be prepared for a global recession in the face of this policy, and should tap into the strength of its domestic markets
Red flags in EU’s green trade policies
The approach to aligning trade practices with sustainability has shifted from soft commitments to mandatory regulations and standards. In this post, Abrol and Singh reflect on how two such policies – the EU Deforestation Regulation and the corporate sustainability due diligence directive – may adversely impact trade from developing countries. They contend that these regulations should recognise country-level differences and provide greater regulatory space for developing countries to pursue catch-up policies.
Implications of shifting trends and patterns in India’s oil exports
Sharmila Kantha outlines why the high share of petroleum products in India's exports is a concern – particularly considering the declining trend in India's oil and gas production and fluctuating global demand. She shares some trends in the volume and value of India's oil exports and imports, as well as statistics on the key countries with which it trades. She concludes with some policy suggestions to increase production and ensure the stability of India's oil exports.
EU’s ‘Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’: How will it impact trade?
Introduced in 2023 by the European Union, the ‘Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’ will apply a carbon price on emissions embedded in the production of carbon-intensive goods imported to the region. In this post, Gupta, Pandey and Sapatnekar contend that the initiative can impact trade competitiveness and profitability of exporters, favouring nations with faster decarbonisation ability and robust carbon pricing systems
India’s millets consumption and trade over the last three decades
In the first post of the e-Symposium on ‘Carrying forward the promise of International Year of Millets’, Manan Bhan introduces the concept of ‘embodied land area’, which accounts for land use at the point of consumption and places the burden of negative impacts on consumers rather than producers. He notes the decline in land area under use for the production of millets and sorghum, and the potential to expand millet cultivation, trade and consumption in a sustainable manner to benefit both producers and consumers.
Making the most of Indian millets: Lessons from the International Year of Quinoa
In the fourth post of the e-Symposium on ‘Carrying forward the promise of International Year of Millets’, Pallavi Agrawal reflects on the success story of quinoa, and how the International Year of Quinoa in 2013 was harnessed to market the crop’s health benefits and expand its cultivation to other countries and increase demand. She suggests some ways in which India can capitalise on the current millets buzz – including marketing it as a superfood, expanding production to satisfy to global demand, and investing in better processing and improving value chains.
Growing threats to global trade
After an era of hyperglobalisation in the 1990s, there has been a clear change in policy and public attitude toward global trade. This article looks at the recent backlash against globalisation and the role that different factors played in contributing to it. It considers the effect of the pandemic and geopolitical pressures due to the conflict in Ukraine, and warns that protectionism could make the world less resilient, more unequal, and more conflict-prone.
Opportunities, risks and realities of India’s participation in global value chains
Despite its manufacturing capability, India, unlike other Asian countries, has failed to integrate into global value chains (GVCs). In this post, Karishma Banga discusses the nature of India’s GVC integration, primarily through forward participation; the sectors that fuel productive linkages; and the factors that have caused low integration – lack of well-developed, labour-intensive industries, large domestic market, labour market rigidities and low FDI. Finally, she recommends strategies to maximise gains for domestic firms integrating into GVCs.
How tradable services can aid the jobs challenge in India
Although the rising demand for services has led to its increased contribution to employment in many developing countries and globally, India's growth in services has not translated into a proportionate increase in employment. Rupa Chanda examines two factors which need to be considered if services are to play a bigger role in job creation– improving the quality of jobs along with increasing formalisation of labour, and investing in skills and training to face technological changes.
Current state of play in India’s services trade
Since the 1990s liberalisation reforms, the services sector has been seen as a key driver of India’s economy. Against the backdrop of the WTO Ministerial Conference, Anil Kumar Kanungo examines the current state of India’s services trade – India’s participation in multilateral trade organisations and agreements, barriers to services trade, and opportunities and prospects for growth.
Has the export-oriented manufacturing model reached its sell-by date for India?
As India faces the challenge of creating millions of well-paying jobs for its rapidly growing working-age population, Devashish Mitra analyses which sectors and what strategies can provide these good jobs. He posits that four factors can help the export-oriented manufacturing model succeed – further labour reforms; the signing and implementation of free trade agreements and establishing special economic zones; and participation in global supply chains. This will allow India to leverage its labour, along with advanced-country technology, to create productive jobs
Global supply chain disruptions: Causes and the way ahead
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has been disastrous for the global supply chains, with persistent effects since early 2020, and knock-on effects now gaining intensity. In this post, Sharmila Kantha discusses the factors responsible for supply chain disruptions, the global impact of the crisis, and the ways in which India – and the world – and private businesses can navigate the situation to build long-term resilience against similar crises.
Leveraging global supply chains to fight Covid-19
When the second wave of Covid-19 hit India, the health catastrophe was compounded by shortages of oxygen, medical equipment, and life-saving drugs. In this post, C Veeramani and Anwesha Basu contend that contrary to the Indian government’s Atmanirbhar or self-reliance stance, relying on global supply chains is a better strategy to achieve resilience against unexpected health shocks.
India’s trade protectionism and low-productivity vicious cycle
Amid rising populism and anti-globalisation movements across the world, Atmanirbhar Bharat represents India’s adoption of trade protectionism. While the country’s inward-oriented economic policies tend to be viewed with a predominantly ideological lens, Srijan Shukla presents an alternate political economy framework, which attributes the underlying protectionist tendencies to a vicious cycle of low productivity.
Should India reconsider participating in e-commerce negotiations at the WTO ?
India is planning to bring about a national e-commerce policy. However, the government has decided to stay away from negotiations at the World Trade Organization platform to set international e-commerce rules due to many concerns. In this post, Shikha and Prakash argue that it will be prudent to join the negotiation and participate actively to highlight India’s concerns and guide the discussion towards a fair negotiation.
RCEP trade agreement: The road not taken?
Prime Minister Modi recently announced that India would not be joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement between Southeast Asian Nations and its free-trading partners. It is mainly due to concerns on the impact that it would have on Indian agriculture and industry because of increased imports from some RCEP countries. Using rigorous academic evidence, Agrawal and Malhotra discuss what the government should reflect on, if it were to reconsider its stance.
Trade rules in e-commerce: Opportunities and concerns for India
India, which is among the fastest growing markets for e-commerce in the world, submitted a formal document to the WTO in December 2017 opposing any negotiations on trade in the sector. In this post, Mukherjee and Kapoor discuss the country’s opportunities and concerns with regard to e-commerce, and suggest next steps for policy and regulation.
Tapping export destinations for growth
TThe trade environment today is becoming increasingly murky and stormy, despite a strengthening global economy. India’s position – never very remarkable – is being further battered, and its embattled manufacturers and exporters face a risky external marketplace. Against this backdrop, Sharmila Kantha assesses which markets India should tap to intensively promote its exports in a targeted manner.
Does the India-EU trade pact make sense for India? - II
In this article, Swati Dhingra, Assistant Professor of Economics at the LSE, contends that the proposed India-EU trade agreement is one-sided and would harm India’s economic interests. In her view, India should leverage its position as a regional power to extract a better deal.
Does the India-EU trade pact make sense for India? - I
During the 13th India-EU Summit in Brussels last month, leaders from both sides welcomed the re-engagement on the stalled India-EU Free Trade Agreement. In this article, Devashish Mitra, Professor of Economics at Syracuse University, argues that this trade pact is not a good idea from India’s point of view, and suggests a few alternatives to the current approach.
Getting more out of India's 'Tourist Visa on Arrival' scheme
The Government of India has extended the ‘Tourist Visa on Arrival’ scheme - now expected to be renamed ´Visa Online (ETA)´ scheme - from five countries in 2010 to 44 countries in 2014. In this article, Natasha Agarwal and Magnus Lodefalk highlight some of the limitations in the design and implementation of the scheme, and make recommendations for maximising its economic benefit and effectiveness.
Mega-trading blocs: Where does India stand?
Emerging multilateral trading agreements, resulting in mega-trading blocs, seem to be replacing global negotiations through the WTO. In this article, Sharmila Kantha assesses the potential impact of these trading agreements on India, and contends that Indian policymakers and businesses would need to factor them into their future plans.
Protectionism under the guise of food security
India has backed out of the commitment it made at the WTO negotiations in Bali in November 2013. The implicit explanation is that the government needs to accumulate food grain stocks to provide subsidised grain to the poor and ensure food security. In this article, Kotwal, Murugkar and Ramaswami critique this reasoning and India’s position on the issue.
India's WTO problem: A proposal
India is threatening to block the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement unless its agricultural policies are exempted from multilateral scrutiny. This article contends that while India’s objectives on agriculture are valid, its tactics in withholding support for TFA are perhaps less so. India should withdraw its opposition, reformulate its position on agriculture to persuade others of its merits, and revisit the WTO issue in the near future.
Bali conundrum: WTO and Indian agriculture
The outcome of the recent WTO meetings at Bali is a stopgap arrangement, which implies that the Indian government does not have to make any changes in the implementation of the new Food Security Act in the near future. In this article, the authors suggest disentangling consumer support and producer support via cash transfers so that India can build a safety net for its poor without violating WTO agreements.
Planning for ‘jobs of the future’ in a changing world
Following decades of structural transformation, in the coming years, external factors including climate change, increasing automation, and global economic policies will all play a role in determining India’s employment landscape. To mark International Workers’ Day on 1 May, I4I Deputy Managing Editor Nikita Mujumdar summarises some research on addressing these challenges to ensure worker well-being and productivity, and equitable access to future-proof jobs.
Manufacturing share in GDP: Comparing India with China and South Korea
: It is commonly believed that Indian manufacturing performance is weak, as the sector has not been able to capture a large enough GDP share. Presenting a comparison of manufacturing share in gross domestic product in India, China and South Korea, Bishwanath Goldar argues that this can be explained predominantly by changing terms of trade between manufacturing and services, and manufacturing translating technological and productivity advances into lower prices and better-quality products for customers in India.
Feminisation of India’s industrial workforce
In recent years, the average annual growth rate in manufacturing employment has exceeded that of aggregate employment in India. In this post, Goldar and Aggarwal demonstrate that this trend is accompanied by an increase in the share of women in the industrial workforce – largely driven by a rise in the proportion of women-owned manufacturing enterprises. Their findings also highlight the need for measures to enhance productivity of women-owned units.
Technological advancement and employment changes: Recent trends in India
What is the impact of rapid technological advancements on employment in the Indian economy? In this post, Kathuria and Dev analyse ‘Consumer Pyramids Household Survey’ data to explore this question. They note a consistent decline in the share of low-skilled workers across sectors, along with reduced employment prospects, particularly in the post-Covid-19 era. They advocate for training these workers – especially women – so that they can transition into higher-skill, higher-paying jobs.
Share of manufacturing in India’s total employment: No mean performance
Available jobs data show only a modest increase in the share of manufacturing in India’s total employment in the last 50 years. In this post, Bishwanath Goldar highlights that the outsourcing of services used by manufacturing has grown speedily over time, due to the splintering of services from manufacturing. If this is accounted for, the performance of manufacturing in job creation is not as dismal as indicated by the data.
How can India become a manufacturing powerhouse?
India’s manufacturing sector has been stagnant over the past 20 years, in terms of contribution to national output as well as employment generation. In this article, Ejaz Ghani locates the explanation in the diverging paths of industrialisation and urbanisation, market distortions pertaining to land and finance, excessive focus on large enterprises rather than smaller, informal ones, and the misconception that services growth is crowding-out manufacturing.
How worker investments can fuel productivity in India’s manufacturing sector
In the second article in the Ideas@IPF2023 series, Adhvaryu et al. synthesise some facts on India’s declining manufacturing productivity and variations across states and industries. They examine existing literature on investments in four key areas with the potential to increase worker productivity – soft skills, voice, physical environment, and managerial quality – highlighting studies conducted in both the Indian and global context. They conclude with possible reasons why firms may not be adequately investing in workers.
A review of women’s engagement with digital labour market platforms
Summarising some findings from ongoing work being done as part of the DP-WEE project, Sneha Ganguly highlights how the emergence of digital labour platforms have the potential to improve women's access to jobs, reduced gendered bias in certain roles, and allow women to flexibly monetise existing assets. She discusses the need for facilitating skilling, providing greater access to technology for women, as well as ensuring safety in the workplace and offering financial incentives to achieve a gender balanced workforce.
Bringing skilling and productive employment closer to women
On International Women’s Day, Farzana Afridi considers a key issue in the creation of good jobs for women – the provision of skilling. She discusses the lack of physical and financial access to skill training, shortage of demand-relevant and high-quality programmes, and inefficient matching with jobs post-training. While highlighting recent government proposals to address these concerns – such as launching a unified Skill India Digital Platform – she contends that a more gender-sensitive approach is needed.
The promise of technology for women’s employment
The growth of digital labour platforms holds tremendous potential to improve employment outcomes for India’s young, urban population. In this post, Farzana Afridi discusses the challenges in leveraging this technology – especially for women, given their lower access to technology, skills, capital and public spaces. She calls for the creation of a data ecosystem – including public and private sources – to analyse the issues and develop suitable policies to fully realise the sector’s promise.
Changing the frame: Making small firms compete like large ones
Although small firms have natural advantages, they face constraints when it comes to reach and scale; this prevents them from competing with larger firms. Pankaj Chandra shares business models from Italy, China, Japan, and various parts of India, where firms have become a part of a network that collectively acts as a large firm. These clusters allow firms to coordinate functions and collaborate in order to grow.
Barriers to upgrading in developing countries
In recent decades, several countries have seen rapid development, aided in part by the adoption of advanced technologies. In this post, Eric Verhoogen looks at recent research to highlight the factors that drive upgrading in developing-country firms. He identifies two factors that have a positive effect on upgrading – selling to richer consumers such as developed countries or MNCs, and increasing know-how by learning from consultants or other firms.
Would a four-day work week benefit women?
In February 2021, the Indian government stated that it may allow firms the flexibility of having a four-day work week, while retaining the norm of 48 hours of work per week. In this post, Koustav Majumdar assesses the potential impacts of such a policy change on women and their workforce participation – given that women are known to disproportionately bear the burden of domestic work on a day-to-day basis.
India’s new labour codes: A pre-condition for long-run growth
The Ministry of Labour and Employment has recently notified four new labour codes, which are expected to be implemented from April 2021. Assessing the impact of the policy changes around hiring-and-firing, trade union membership, and working hours, Aakanksha Shrawan argues that the proposed reforms would be game-changing both for domestic employers, and foreign firms who are contemplating investing in India.
An offline alternative for Aadhaar-based biometric authentication
While decision on the constitutionality of Aadhaar by the Supreme Court of India remains a matter of speculation, it has become abundantly clear that most of the use cases for Aadhaar-based biometric authentication (ABBA) have turned out to be deeply problematic. In this post, Banerjee and Sharma outline the tentative design sketch of an alternate offline protocol, with digitisation and identity verification objectives similar to ABBA, which may be more accurate and free of the negatives.
India’s R&D expenditure: Composition matters
While gross expenditure on R&D in India has been on the rise in recent years, it is dominated by public investment. In this post, Sanjib Pohit contends that the current system of allocating public funds for R&D is geared towards low-risk, low-return incremental research, and should instead promote innovative research. He also recommends encouraging private investment in ‘core’ R&D activities via tax incentives.
The impact of robotisation on the world economy: A forward-looking review
Robots have long existed in human imagination and only recently in the real world. The baggage of past imagination often intrudes into our understanding of how real robots will affect our economic lives. This explainer rigorously defines ‘robots’ and artificial intelligence; presents empirical evidence and analysis on the impacts of robotisation on production processes and aggregate economic outcomes; and puts forth policy recommendations for ensuring social benefits from robotisation at minimal cost.
Management and India’s economic growth
India has produced a well-recognised elite of managers, some of whom have demonstrated their capabilities in premier firms outside the country. In this post, Nirvikar Singh discusses existing empirical evidence from India that demonstrates the importance of managerial skills for economic growth, and recommends policy measures that can promote good management.
Role of private sector in the holistic skilling of India’s workforce
Low skill levels of workers are a key reason for low labour productivity in developing countries. In this article, Adhvaryu et al. discuss research that centres around two important questions in this context: who should conduct and pay for skilling, and what kind of skills does the workforce need?
Advancing evidence-based tiger conservation
In the world’s most populated nation, natural landscapes are dramatically and rapidly being altered by human enterprise. In this context, Pranav Chanchani advocates for data-driven policymaking to sustain tigers in India – encompassing appropriate linkages to information on social and ecological drivers of tiger population. He emphasises developing a nuanced understanding of where and how tigers can be conserved beyond Protected Areas, reconsidering entrenched assumptions about what works for conservation, redefining criteria and milestones for success, and interdisciplinary scientific inquiry. This post is the second in a three-part series on tiger conservation in India
Yamuna River pollution: Problem of governance, not infrastructure
Despite decades of efforts to clean Delhi’s Yamuna, the river remains severely polluted. In this post, Naina Sharma contends that the situation is reflective of gaps in governance, rather than technical shortcomings. Outlining the problems with sewage management in the capital city and weak enforcement of applicable norms, she emphasises the rationalisation of institutional framework and collective public action to address the issues.
Addressing water scarcity in Maharashtra: Need for a policy shift
In the 1980s, Maharashtra played a pioneering role in promoting integrated watershed development to address water scarcity. In this post, Tiwale and Sankar contend that in recent years, the state has shifted to technocratic, quick-fix, and fragmented approaches to water management. They discuss two schemes – the Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan and Farm Pond on Demand – and recommend an integrated, bottom-up approach with science-based solutions, demand-side measures and appropriate institutional arrangements
Financing the climate transition of India’s power sector
A cornerstone of India’s climate transition plan is to shift towards a high-efficiency, low-emission power sector. In this post, Vardhan and Tilotia outline the investment and financing challenges associated with such a shift, by consolidating existing projections under various scenarios for the power sector, and assessing these against available financial resources. Further, they examine policy options that could enhance the flow of capital into such investments.
Can education propel climate action?
While youth in the developing world are anxious about climate change and ready for action, they are constrained by a lack of information and knowledge. In this post, Masood and Sabarwal discuss insights from a new World Bank Report outlining how education can address this disconnect to drive climate action. They also highlight the need to safeguard educational systems from the threats posed by climate change.
Managing human-wildlife conflict in the Sundarbans
Besides being home to uniquely adapted tigers, the Sundarbans are a source of livelihood for the human population in the region. In this post, Danda and Mukhopadhyay discuss the nature of human-wildlife conflict that arises, and the exacerbating impact of climate change. They detail the measures undertaken to address the challenges, situating these within the wider effort towards tiger conservation in the Sundarbans. This post is the second in a three-part series on tiger conservation in India.
Voluntary mobility to adapt to changing climate: A pathway to achieving SDGs
While the impacts of climate change affect all populations across the world, some are more at risk than others based on their geographical and socioeconomic positioning. Drawing on examples of climate change-led mobility from other countries, Sampurna Sarkar discusses how States can ensure the safety and well-being of at-risk populations. She recommends a way forward for the Indian government to enable immobile, temporarily mobile, and displaced populations to transition to a state of voluntary mobility, while also conducting eco-restoration of origin locations.
Tiger conservation in a changing climate
The Sundarbans of India and Bangladesh – the only mangrove tiger habitat – is a top priority for global tiger conservation. Discussing the extreme climate vulnerability of the region, Anamitra Anurag Danda argues that efforts need to go beyond what has been envisaged under the ‘Global Tiger Recovery Program 2.0’ for 2023-2034 – failing which the species may become early victims of climate change-induced habitat loss. This post is the first in a three-part series on tiger conservation in India.
Eco-budget in Karnataka: Opportunities and challenges
In its 2022-23 budget, the government of Karnataka announced an allocation of Rs. 100 crore to compensate for the negative impact of natural events and human activities on forests. In this post, M Balasubramanian contends that while this is a welcome step, the financial allocation – based on an evaluation of the economic loss of forest ecosystem services – is insufficient. He highlights the need to improve data and methods used for estimating losses.
Financing India’s green structural transformation
While India has launched an ambitious green structural transformation programme – with some initial successes to its credit – it is still nascent and there is a need to mobilise more resources. In this post, Ejaz Ghani outlines how global risk pooling, fiscal reforms, public-private partnerships and innovative financial instruments can help finance green growth – thereby enabling India to achieve both poverty reduction and climate risk mitigation.
India’s opportunity for sustainable growth
In the second post of a three-part blog series, Tim Dobermann and Nikita Sharma contend that it is important for India to choose a growth trajectory that prioritises raising living standards while minimising environmental decline. They discuss how innovations in at least two areas – energy and conservation – are helping India realise this opportunity.
Going green while being in the red
In the third post of a three-part blog series, I4I Editor-in-Chief Parikshit Ghosh advocates for a holistic approach that harmonises India’s environmental policy, social safety nets, and macroeconomic management. Given the difficulty of predicting where and when climate-related needs will arise, he puts forth the idea of a consolidated green fund for the country.
Does India’s air pollution impact more than just health?
Air pollution presents a significant risk to human health in India, a fact which is now widely appreciated. Less well-known is a body of evidence suggesting that air pollution harms the day-to-day functioning of those with no diagnosable health harms, through avenues such as impaired decision-making and reduced capabilities in a wide range of tasks. Aguilar-Gomez et al. outline this research on the ‘non-health’ impact of pollution in various industries, and the ways in which people respond to ambient pollution.
Climate change and riverine pollution: The need for high-quality environment data in India
Controlling water pollution and protecting water resources in India requires comprehensive collection and monitoring of data. In this article, Pohit and Mehta describe a project undertaken by NCAER and TCD, which used automated sensors attached to boats to collect data on water quality parameters at key points along the Ganga river in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. They emphasise how these findings can help understand the sources of pollution to ensure effective policy interventions and regulatory compliance by polluters.
Pivoting to evidence-based tiger conservation
In light of the recently released tiger population estimates for India, Pranav Chanchani discusses what needs to be done make data-driven decisions to sustain tiger population as natural landscapes are being altered by human enterprise. He suggests that data on the social and ecological drivers of variation in the tiger population – including prey, cover and human tolerance for tigers – is essential for the species’ effective conservation. This evidence-based conservation will also provide a more nuanced understanding of where and how tigers can effectively be conserved beyond Protected Areas.
Keeping development at the forefront of India’s long-term climate strategy
India’s Long Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) sets out multiple low-carbon transitions, highlighting that climate action will be intimately tied to developmental processes. In this article, Chandra et al. identify some of the challenges and opportunities embedded within these transitions, and reflect on how these will impact developmental priorities such as employment and energy security. To operationalise the LT-LEDS effectively, they argue that India will benefit from planning now to minimise the trade-offs between low-carbon futures and development.
Trade-offs in carbon trading: Can a carbon market yield benefits for India?
The creation of a national carbon market in India, depending on its institutional setup, policy integration, and design could offer a mechanism for reducing emissions, or it could result in serious economic costs. Srivastava and Swain put forth seven key considerations for its design – including India's growth objectives, trade balance, fiscal revenues, and the effect on its MSMEs. To ensure its success, they highlight the need to integrate it with a comprehensive policy package to quell broader political economy challenges.
How could Indian law tackle climate governance?
As climate change becomes an increasing concern, addressing the problem only through policy may not be enough. In this piece, Dubash and Sridhar suggest that legislation around climate can ensure economy-wide outcomes, and put forth nine considerations that countries hoping to implement climate law should satisfy to effectively tackle climate change. They discuss possible approaches to design these laws – taking into account the broader political context – to make sure that both environmental and development objectives are met.
Pledges, plans, and actions: An analysis of India’s Panchamrit pledges
In anticipation of India updating its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Aman Srivastava and Ashwini Swain evaluate the climate pledges made by Prime Minister Modi at COP26. In the context of historical trends and growth and development objectives, they discuss the feasibility and implications of reducing India’s emissions intensity and increasing the share of renewables in its energy mix. They use this analysis to suggest potential ways forward towards ensuring greater clarity and cohesion among these pledges.
The role of regulatory innovation in reversing India’s environmental degradation
In the Yale Environmental Performance Index, India ranked last out of 180 countries. Anant Sudarshan examines the broader economic and developmental costs of environmental degradation. Based on the literature and his own empirical work he argues that regulatory stagnation has made it harder to find solutions, with India failing to sufficiently engage with promising innovations in environmental policy. He suggests that environmental governance in India would benefit from more research-policy collaboration and broader disciplinary expertise.
In extremity and externality: Need for policies to protect children from environmental crises
Despite the undeniable threats of climate change, little consideration has been given to creating social safety nets for the vulnerable or engendering resilience in institutions disrupted by extreme climate events. In this post, Despite the undeniable threats of climate change, little consideration has been given to creating social safety nets for the vulnerable or engendering resilience in institutions disrupted by extreme climate events. In this post, Nikita Sharma considers the impact of climate change on economies and individuals, particularly children whose health and education are impeded as a result of extremities and externalities, and the need for policy to support them alongside those to mitigate the climate crisis.
Carbon dioxide emissions from India’s industries: Data sources and discrepancies
Industries are one of the most significant contributors to energy-related carbon-dioxide (energy-CO2) emissions in India – the share of industries in the total emissions was 25%, second only to power generation. In this post, Manisha Jain examines the trends, and differences in the two data sources on manufacturing emissions in India – International Energy Agency estimates, and country-level data reported by the central government to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Reimagining Indian federalism in the climate crisis
Climate change is an increasingly urgent problem for India, as for all countries. In this post, Pillai et al. contend that addressing the issue requires reimagining Indian federalism, as the Indian Constitution gives states a crucial role in several arenas of climate action. They propose a new approach to institutional reform in climate policy, one that gives states adequate flexibility while coordinating their actions for national goals.
On the economic geography of climate change
Climate change is a defining challenge of our times. In this post, Peri and Robert-Nicoud introduce a special issue of the ‘Journal of Economic Geography’ on climate change, which provides foundations for well-informed policymaking by addressing two main themes of the economic geography of climate change. First, climate change yields heterogeneous effects across space, and second, a crucial aspect of human adaptation to climate change is geographic mobility.
Balancing economic development and climate goals
Although India is on track to meet its target under the Paris Climate Agreement, the fast pace of urbanisation could worsen the problem of climate change. In this post, Ejaz Ghani outlines the policy instruments available to promote green growth in the cities and enhance energy efficiency, and contends that there can be huge payoffs from linking urbanisation with climate change
India’s progress in meeting its climate goals
India’s target under the Paris Agreement on climate change, is to reduce greenhouse gas emission intensity by 33-35% by 2030, from the 2005 level. In a previous I4I post, Manisha Jain showed that the estimated progress towards the target varies across external and country data sources. Based on further analysis, in this post, she argues that the different datasets give different answers to questions about the scope of raising India’s climate targets, and the effectiveness of its mitigation strategies.
Tracking India’s greenhouse gas emission intensity target
One of the targets in India’s ‘Nationally Determined Contributions’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is to reduce the greenhouse gas emission intensity of GDP by 33-35% by 2030, from 2005 level. In this post, Manisha Jain examines the differences in data on India’s emission intensity between country reports and third-party sources, and suggests ways to improve official reporting.
The importance of a climate stimulus in India
The Covid-19 pandemic has plunged India into recession, and substantial stimulus from the government is required to jump-start the economy. In this post, Ingmar Schumacher contends that while systemic sectors should be bailed out – even if these are polluting – it would be a mistake to not take advantage of the double dividends that come with transitioning towards a more sustainable economy.
Covid-19, population, and pollution: A roadmap for the future
The impact of the ongoing Covid pandemic is turning out to be multidimensional, and among the long-run considerations that it has brought to the fore are population and pollution. In the run up to World Environment Day on 5 June, Rishabh Mahendra and Shweta Gupta discuss these issues in the context of the current crisis, and draw policy lessons for the future.
Covid-19: Green stimulus to revive a comatose economy
The economic impacts of Covid-19 in India are likely to be quite steep. Singh and Mohan contend that any stimulus package to restart the economy has to be ‘green’; it must encourage an economic path that reduces the carbon intensity of the economy, instead of propping up business models that have no place in a future low-carbon world. They further discuss what steps can be taken in three key areas: electricity, transport, and the urban economy, to deliver broad-based growth and improve environmental outcomes.
Delhi’s air: Parikshit Ghosh speaks with Mohan P George
Edited excerpts from an in-depth interview with Dr. Mohan P George (Senior Scientist, Delhi Pollution Control Committee), conducted by Parikshit Ghosh (Member of the I4I Editorial Board; Associate Professor, Delhi School of Economics) on the crucial public policy problem of air pollution in Delhi.
Is adaptation to climate damages a blessing or curse for developing nations?
Pathways reflecting current climate action commitments by different nations mean a global warming level much higher than the level at which the world will be faced with manageable climate damages. Furthermore, developing countries are going to face the maximum brunt of these damages. In this post, Ingmar Schumacher argues that it is in the interests of developing countries to pursue full international cooperation on mitigation of climate change.
The ‘Right to Energy’ and carbon tax: A game changer in India
India's carbon emissions in 2014 were more than three times its level in 1990. While the emissions have increased sharply, their distribution across income groups is extremely skewed. The poor in India who contribute the least to climate change face the maximum brunt. In this post, Azad and Chakraborty discuss a proposal of taxing carbon while redistributing the revenue to the poor by giving them access to free energy up to a limit.
Compensatory afforestation funds: A means or an end?
India has one of the most ambitious targets for forest cover as part of its Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement which will require considerable land and financial resources. In this post, Shubham Sharma argues that mere creation of a fund for compensatory afforestation, when natural forests are diverted for development might not be the best solution. Integrated solutions are required to address the causes of diversion of forest land.
Nobel laureate William Nordhaus’ ideas for India
William Nordhaus has won a share of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics for his contribution to climate economics. In this post, Dean Spears discusses Nordhaus’ work and its implications for India. He contends that India is even more climate-vulnerable than realised by the Nobel laureate’s quantitative model that describes the interplay between the economy and climate.
Financing scale-up of rooftop solar power via municipal bonds
While India’s solar power generation capacity has increased dramatically in recent years, the rate of deployment of rooftop solar is still insufficient to achieve the national targets. In this post, Goldar and Paul recommend the use of municipal bonds to support the scale-up of rooftop solar. Applying their proposed bond model to Surat and New Delhi, they illustrate how rooftop solar can become competitive and benefit different types of consumers in these cities.
The simple economics of clean air
One of the main reasons why north-western India chokes on smog every November is the burning of residue from the rice crop by farmers. In this article, Somanathan and Gupta contend that public auctions to sell machines that weed out crop residue at a subsidised rate could help stop stubble burning. It will cost the agriculture ministry a fraction of its annual budget.
Why Asian cities should become focal points for climate change mitigation
In this article, Naini Jayaseelan, former Secretary, Environment, Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi, contends that mega cities in South and South-East Asia offer huge opportunities for climate change mitigation via improvements in efficiency in power, transport, and water and sanitation infrastructure.
Star power: Rating industries in Maharashtra by emission levels
Maharashtra Pollution Control Board recently launched a programme to rate industries based on their emission levels – the first such initiative by a government regulator. An easy and accessible way to inform residents about industry emissions around where they live and work, Greenstone, Pande, Ryan and Sudarshan contend that the programme can infuse transparency and accountability into the system, and instil healthy competition among industries.
Electrified transport: Countdown to 2030
The Government of India is aiming to have only electric vehicles operating in the country by 2030. Despite the various policy initiatives that are being undertaken to make progress towards this ambitious target, the adoption of electric vehicles remains quite low. In this article, Sarkar and Sarkar discuss why this is so and what can be done to stimulate sale of electric vehicles in India.
Case for electric vehicles through cleaner grid supply
The Indian government recently announced its plan to make India a 100% electric vehicle nation by 2030. In this article, Mudit Chordia, a Consultant at the University of Chicago Urban Labs, discusses the viability of such a plan in the Indian context.
Cheaper, cleaner, more reliable: Why invest in cross-border power-trading
Despite improvements to energy supply over the years, many Indian states still face frequent power shortages. Meanwhile, neighbouring countries such as Nepal and Bhutan have large reserves of untapped hydropower with the potential to meet unserved demand for energy in major load centres. Investing in interconnections could also contribute to significant reductions in carbon emissions. This column quantifies potential gains from an integrated South Asian power.
What is causing Delhi's air pollution?
Several policies aimed at reducing Delhi’s air pollution have been implemented this winter, but what remains unclear is where the pollution comes from. This column takes stock of what we know about pollution sources and the portion contributed by each. It contends that good information systems are required to turn the critical convergence of public concern, policymaker attention, and academic contribution into a smart policy response.
Driving Delhi: The impact of driving restrictions on driver behaviour
In an attempt to address Delhi’s grave pollution problem, the state government experimented with a driving restrictions policy for a fortnight in January. Based on a phone survey of a sample of 614 drivers in the city, this column describes how the policy changed drivers’ behaviour in terms of labour supply, number of daily trips, travel modes, and satisfaction, between restricted and unrestricted days while the policy was in effect.
The Paris Agreement: No more chances to fail
The Paris Agreement is being viewed with cautious optimism by most observers. In this article, Milind Kandlikar, Professor at the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, argues that although the Agreement is not legally binding and largely silent on equity matters, it is in India’s interest to make a credible contribution to global emissions reduction. The twin problems of providing energy for all and growth in emissions may be less coupled than suggested by the Indian government’s position.
Coal and the climate change debate
In the run-up to the Paris Climate Summit, there has been a growing call among advanced nations to phase out fossil fuels. In this article, Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser, Government of India, argues that shunning coal is not viable for India. Instead, the world should come together to find effective techniques to ‘clean and green’ coal.
Incentivising states to conserve forests
Central tax revenues will now be shared among states not just on the basis of population, area, and income, but also forest cover. In this article, Jonah Busch, an environmental economist at the Center for Global Development, contends that the fiscal reform has the potential to become quite a potent climate instrument. It can serve as an example for other countries with similar tax revenue distribution systems and high rates of deforestation.
Why is land expensive in India, and what can be done about it?
The price of land in India is high relative to its fundamental value, impacting economic development in the country. In this post, Gurbachan Singh explains why this is so, in terms of two broad factors – the license-permit-quota Raj in urban India, and the Land Acquisition Act, 2013 in rural India. He recommends phasing out the Raj, and eventually abolishing the pricing provisions of the Act.
The role of cities in ensuring good jobs
In light of India's rapid urbanisation, Rana Hasan looks at various factors which set large cities apart from smaller cities and rural areas: more job opportunities, higher wages, large manufacturing and business sectors, and greater innovation. Although cities already attract workers and firms, he discusses what can be done to make cities even more conducive to job creation. He puts forth policy suggestions and calls for increased investment in transportation and infrastructure and better coordinated economic and urban planning.
Are cities holding India back from reaching its ambitious net zero targets?
While per capita emissions in global cities are significantly lower than the national average, large Indian cities like Delhi and Kolkata emit up to double the national average. Shah and Downes look at how urbanisation in India could derail national decarbonisation efforts. They suggest a more decentralised approach, where local and national governments work together to minimise the impact of climate change.
Financing Indian cities
Indian cities are fund-starved and unprepared to handle the stresses of rapid urbanisation in the country. Urban local bodies and municipal corporations, particularly in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, do not have the necessary autonomy or capacity to raise revenue. In this article, Nandan Sharalaya discusses options available to the government for financing cities, above and beyond the traditional model of public-private partnerships.
The puzzle of Indian urbanisation
The global experience has been that as countries develop, rural-to-urban migration accelerates, and decelerates only when the urbanisation level is very high – usually well over 50%. In contrast, migration in India began decelerating when urbanisation was below 25%. In the article, Pronab Sen deconstructs this puzzle.
Where is the cash?
In recent weeks, reports of currency shortages have emerged from several parts of the country. In this post, Nalini Gulati contends that the cash crunch appears to be temporary and is likely to be resolved once the demand-supply mismatch is addressed. What may persist is the ‘ATM run’ and it is important to examine that issue. #CashCrunch Body: In November 2016, Prime Minister Modi announced that Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes were no longer legal tender and needed to be exchanged for new currency, thus withdrawing 86% of the cash in the economy. The cash shortage that followed had a significant adverse impact on the informal sector in particular, which predominantly uses cash for transactions and depends largely on informal cash credit. In recent weeks, reports of currency shortages have emerged from several parts of the country. The government is attributing the cash crunch to “unusual†high demand for currency, while maintaining that there is sufficient cash supply for normal transaction
Amalgamation of public sector banks: The task ahead
The central government has proposed amalgamation of three public sector banks (PSBs), the first stage of which has been completed. This strategic move is touted to be the beginning of transformation of PSBs into smart and agile entities to compete with their private peers. In this post, K. Srinivasa Rao discusses reasons for amalgamation, strengths and challenges of the new amalgamated entity, and ingredients for success of amalgamations in the PSB space.
What ails the Indian banking sector?
Non-performing assets (NPAs) of Indian banks have risen from under 3% to over 13% in the past couple of years, making the state of the banking sector one of the biggest challenges facing the country in accelerating investments and growth. In this post, Dr Pronab Sen diagnoses the causes of the current NPA problem, and proposes solutions.
Explainer: India’s payments banks
In August 2015, the RBI issued in-principle licences to 11 entities to establish payments banks in India – a unique format of banking which has not been used anywhere else in the world. Fully based on modern technology, these banks are expected to bring the huge unbanked population of India under the formal banking system. In this explainer, Rahul Choudhury describes the evolution of payments banks, the opportunities they offer, and the challenges they face.
Financial inclusion in India: Progress and prospects
Financial inclusion is globally considered as a critical indicator of development and well-being of society. In this post, Srinivasa Rao traces the financial inclusion journey in India so far, and discusses prospects for the future.
New resolution framework for stressed assets: Challenges and opportunities
The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), 2016 aims to expedite resolution of stressed assets, and provide an exit route to failed entities. A simplified, generic framework has been developed by RBI for stressed assets of Rs. 20 billion and above, effective from March 2018. In this post, Srinivasa Rao draws lessons from the ongoing resolution processes of the first lot of large delinquent corporate loan accounts for which IBC has been invoked.
Explainer: Conceptual foundations of cryptocurrencies
In recent times, cryptocurrencies have become a subject of intense deliberations among policymakers, market participants, investors, and other stakeholders. Whether cryptocurrencies will revolutionise banking and payment systems or is the euphoria surrounding cryptocurrencies like a bubble waiting to burst ̶ only time will tell. In this explainer, Pandey and Sharma attempt to decode the mechanics of cryptocurrencies and simplify the jargon used in the discussion on cryptocurrencies.
Public bank privatisation: No panacea for the ills of the banking sector
The recent Punjab National Bank fraud has rekindled the debate on bank privatisation, often considered a solution for the poor management in public sector banks. In this article, Sengupta and Roy contend that privatisation may solve other problems in the Indian economy, free up fiscal resources, and may even reduce corruption, but it is not a solution for regulatory weaknesses.
Understanding the recent ordinance amending the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code
The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 (IBC) is a landmark reform for India. One year after the notification of the law, an Ordinance to amend IBC has been promulgated, which bars several categories of persons and entities from participating in the IBC processes. In this article, Sengupta and Sharma discuss how the Ordinance goes against some of the core principles of the IBC and analyse how it is likely to impact bankruptcy outcomes.
Huge bank losses, frauds, and economic risks
Banks have incurred humongous losses in India. The public authorities have taken corrective measures primarily in the form of strengthening laws, audits, and the enforcement processes. In this article, Gurbachan Singh argues that while this is indeed required, at the margin there is a much greater and urgent need to improve assessment of the economic risks in a dynamic economy.
A vision and action plan for financial sector development and reforms in India
In this article, Agarwal and Prasad present a summary of their new Brookings India report, which takes stock of financial sector development in India, identifies areas of improvement, outlines long-term objectives for financial sector development and reforms, and provides policy recommendations to achieve the long-term objectives.
Bubble in bitcoin or elsewhere?
The price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed. Gurbachan Singh contends that there may or may not be a bubble in cryptocurrencies. If there is a bubble, then the prices will fall eventually, and the story will end there. If, however, there is no bubble in cryptocurrencies, then there can be interesting implications for other important assets.
Facilitating foreign investment in rupee-denominated debt
On 22 September 2017, the RBI notified that rupee-denominated offshore bonds – popularly known as ‘masala bonds’ – will no longer form part of the limit for investment in corporate bonds by foreign portfolio investors. In this article, Radhika Pandey contends that while this is a step in the right direction, more needs to be done to complete the reform to simplify and rationalise the current regulatory framework.
Recapitalisation of public sector banks, and financial repression
Government of India recently announced its decision to infuse Rs. 2.11 trillion of fresh capital into public sector banks, financed partly through recapitalisation bonds. In this article, Dr Gurbachan Singh discusses how by opting for normal government bonds instead, issues of financial instability and financial repression could have been avoided. Government of India recently announced its decision to infuse Rs. 2.11 trillion of fresh capital into public sector banks, financed partly through recapitalisation bonds. In this article, Dr Gurbachan Singh discusses how by opting for normal government bonds instead, issues of financial instability and financial repression could have been avoided.
Why are finances of Indian states deteriorating?
The combined stock of debt owed by Indian states is about 21% of GDP, and is proliferating. In this article, Ananya Kotia discusses why the stock of the states’ debt is unsustainable today despite their commendable adherence to hard limits on borrowing flows imposed by India’s fiscal rule framework.
Should India hold US$400 billion of foreign exchange reserves?
RBI’s foreign exchange reserves have now crossed the US$400 billion mark. In this article, Dr Gurbachan Singh discusses why India’s Central Bank should not hold such large reserves.
Financial inclusion: Concepts, issues, and policies for India
The International Growth Centre recently brought out a synthesis paper (Singh 2017) that lays out the basic concepts surrounding financial inclusion, and reviews a wide range of IGC and other studies on financial inclusion. At a workshop organised by the IGC in collaboration with Ideas for India and Indian Statistical Institute, Rohini Pande (Harvard Kennedy School), S. Krishnan (State government of Tamil Nadu), Ashok Bhattacharya (Business Standard), and R Gopalan (ex-Ministry of Finance) discussed the key lessons emerging from research, implications for policy, and areas where further work is needed.
Post demonetisation: Is digital finance in India's future?
Analysing RBI data from June 2017 – six months after demonetisation was announced on 9 November 2016 – Mukherjee and Wadhwa show that reliance on cash has reverted to pre-demonetisation levels, and the sharp increases in digital transactions did not sustain. While consumers don’t seem ready to give up cash just yet, the experience proves that the digital financial ecosystem of India is in good health.
Towards financial prescription
The Securities and Exchange Board of India has proposed that the distributors of mutual funds should only be allowed to sell financial products and not act as financial advisers for customers. Drawing analogies from the regulatory frameworks for driving on public roads and practising medicine, Gurbachan Singh contends that this is a step in the right direction but much more needs to be done to regulate financial advice.
Strategy for dealing with the banking crisis
To deal with India’s banking crisis, Prof. Ajay Shah of NIPFP recommends a two-pronged strategy – more financing for firms, and RBI reforms.
Assessing the impact of demonetisation through the gender lens
In this article, Mitali Nikore, Senior Consultant at PwC India, highlights how demonetisation is impacting women differentially, and offers policy suggestions on how the negative effects can be mitigated.
Aadhaar, demonetisation, and the poor
There is a view that an Aadhaar-centred apparatus of digital inclusion can shield the poor from the problematic effects of demonetisation. In this article, Silvia Masiero argues that constraints of technology ownership, access to informational networks, and infrastructural readiness prove the argument wrong. Other means are needed to reduce the severe humanitarian consequences of sudden cashlessness.
Post-demonetisation: Can the old notes return?
Banks in India are reported to have received about 87.7% of the demonetised currency notes so far. In this article, Badri Sunderarajan argues that when once all the old notes have come in, it would make sense to reintroduce them into the system as legal tender.
Demonetisation: A thunderbolt in search of a target
In this article, Ajit Karnik, Professor of Economics at Middlesex University, Dubai, examines the various rationales that have been trotted out to justify demonetisation and finds little evidence to back these up. In his view, this seems to have been done mainly because a dramatic gesture was required to keep the supporters of the current government enthused.
Will demonetisation lead to a protracted economic slowdown?
In this article, Pandey and Sengupta argue that the impact of the contractionary demand shock triggered by the note ban will gradually radiate from cash-intensive activities to virtually every sector of the economy.
India’s demonetisation drive: Politics trumps economics
In this article, Siddhartha Mitra, Professor of Economics at Jadavpur University, argues that even though demonetisation fails the standard economic cost-benefit test with regard to its stated objectives, it may still make for sound political arithmetic.
Demonetisation: Some very counterintuitive effects in practice
Due to demonetisation, holders of black money lose if they cannot exchange their notes or sell these in the black market. It is widely reasoned that this implies an equal financial gain for the public authorities. In this article, Gurbachan Singh shows that this logic is flawed.
Demonetisation and agricultural markets
In this article, Aggarwal and Narayanan contend that demonetisation alone cannot turn agricultural markets cashless. Such a shift would require sustained and focussed effort to expand the reach of formal institutions, especially for credit and storage.
The demonetisation boondoggle
In this article, Amartya Lahiri, Professor of Economics at the University of British Columbia, argues that all public policy must rely on a clear-headed cost-benefit analysis and the recent demonetisation move fails the test.
why demonetisation?
In this article, Sarmistha Pal, Chair in Financial Economics at the University of Surrey, examines whether the current government’s stance in tackling black money has significantly differed from its predecessor, and how far it is willing to go in this respect.
Consequences of the demonetisation shock
In this article, Sudipto Mundle, Emeritus Professor at NIPFP, contends that we are likely to see a significant dip in economic activity till January 2017 or even till the end of the current financial year because of the disruptive demonetisation shock.
Notes ban: Modinomics vs. Moditics
Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, contends that while the ban on high-denomination currency notes is bad economics, it is a brilliant political move.
A monetary economics view of the demonetisation
The demonetised Rs. 1,000 and 500 notes were 86% of the total volume of cash in India. In this article, Ajay Shah, Professor at NIPFP, argues that if a significant scale of firm failure were to come about, it would convert a temporary shock into a deeper and more long-term recession.
Currency shock: Does the gain justify the strain?
On the evening of 8 November, PM Modi announced that 1,000 and 500 rupee notes will cease to be legal tender post-midnight. In this article, Parikshit Ghosh, Associate Professor of Economics at the Delhi School of Economics, contends that there are bigger, juicier and relatively low-hanging fruit the government is not reaching for, in the fight against black money.
Going cashless but thinking cash?
In this article, Bappaditya Mukhopadhyay, Professor of Economics and Finance at the Great Lakes Institute of Management, contends that switching from a predominantly cash-based to cashless economy needs a positive, exogenous shock and the recent currency ban could be the perfect opportunity for that. To give India’s cashless economy the push it needs, the government could allow mobile and other digital payment platforms to accept deposits in demonetised notes.
Picking up the pieces
In an earlier article , Pronab Sen, Country Director, IGC India Central, examined some of the economic consequences of the recent demonetisation of Rs. 1,000 and 500 notes in India, and concluded that the potential damage could be substantial, both in terms of growth and equity.
Public sector banks: The more things change, the more they stay the same
Banks Board Bureau has been set up to help the government appoint heads of public sector banks (PSBs) and to advise on important issues in banking. In this article, Gurbachan Singh asks basic questions – what is the rationale for PSBs? Was there a rationale for the nationalisation of banks even in 1969? In his view, privatisation is needed but as a second-best solution, meaningful autonomy can be useful.
Socially disadvantaged groups and microfinance in India
The benefits of microfinance are in the details. This column takes a look at lending by commercial banks in India to self-help groups – smaller, informal community-based groups – as a new and successful microfinance initiative. Different ways of thinking about getting credit to the poorest and most marginalised in society can work, but only if the institutions are properly geared up for their customers
The Indian banking system: A ticking time bomb
In response to RBI’s call to accelerate the recognition of stressed assets, publicly traded banks in India added nearly Rs. 1 trillion in bad loans in the quarter ending December 2015. In this article, Ashish Pandey, a finance professional, proposes a multipronged approach to addressing the Non-Performing Assets crisis in the Indian banking system.
Recapitalising public sector banks by disinvesting in RBI: Right and wrong
The Economic Survey 2015-16 put forth the argument that the Government of India could reduce its capital in the RBI from its current large level and use it to increase its capital in public sector banks, which face a capital shortage. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has stated that this argument is not valid. In this article, Prof. Gurbachan Singh contends that while the argument does not hold in general, it does so for all practical purposes under the present conditions.
Achieving financial inclusion: Going cashless
A World Bank survey reveals that while about half of all individuals in India had bank accounts in 2014, only 12% had made a cashless transaction in the past year. In this article, Bappaditya Mukhopadhyay, Professor of Economics and Finance at the Great Lakes Institute of Management, contends that cashless transactions can be encouraged by ensuring that payments – beyond government transfers - are made directly into the bank accounts of recipients.
Financial inclusion for the poor: Using RCTs for effective programme design
While the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana – the Indian government’s flagship financial inclusion scheme - is impressive in its mission, it does not seem to have achieved meaningful results so far. In this article, Ruchira Bhattamishra, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Development Research, Sustainability and Technical Advancement, makes a case for the use of the Randomised Controlled Trial methodology for impact evaluation to gather credible evidence on the effectiveness of pilot financial programmes/particular components of programmes, before the government invests heavily in scaling them up.
JAM and the pursuit of nirvana
The Finance Ministry is proposing to roll all subsidies into a single, lump-sum cash transfer to households, on the back of the JAM (Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhaar, Mobile numbers) trinity. In this article, Jean Drèze, Honorary Professor at the Delhi School of Economics, argues that a single-minded focus on high-tech cash transfers as a foundation for social policy in India is fraught with dangers.
Reining in gold imports
In an attempt to reduce gold imports, the Indian government has proposed three new schemes – gold monetisation, sovereign gold bonds, and domestic production of branded gold coins. In this article, Prof. Gurbachan Singh diagnoses the market failure and government failure involved in large gold imports, and provides a broad perspective on the issue. He examines the potential effectiveness of the schemes, and suggests policy alternatives.
The financial inclusion agenda and Aadhaar
The central government is pushing financial inclusion in a big way. In this article, MS Sriram discusses the role of identity in financial inclusion, and the importance of Aadhaar in this context. He argues that while Aadhaar has facilitated opening of bank accounts by providing a verifiable identity to the poor, it has distracted the financial inclusion agenda by claiming to be a ‘fix-all’ solution.
Challenges and priorities for financial sector reform in India
I4I Editor Nirvikar Singh (Professor, University of California, Santa Cruz) interviews K.P. Krishnan (Former Additional Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance) on the central government’s plans and priorities for financial sector reform, and associated challenges. Dr Krishnan provides his perspective on issues including the regulatory architecture, financial inclusion initiatives, strengthening the banking system, and infrastructure financing.
Financing India's infrastructure growth
Interest rates in the developed economies are still at very low levels, while investors are looking for high and stable returns for their money. This article outlines an innovative proposal for financing India’s infrastructure needs via government bonds targeted at foreign investors, with returns linked to the growth rates in the country.
The Chit fund crisis: Should not put all financial intermediaries in the same bracket
The government has announced a bailout package for the participants of unregulated saving schemes that have been put at risk by the current Chit fund crisis in West Bengal. In this article, Banerjee and Ghatak caution against putting deposit-takers and micro-lenders in the same bracket while considering stricter financial regulation to prevent recurrence of such events.
A right time for inflation-indexed bonds?
While the introduction of inflation-indexed bonds in India has been hailed by many as a step in the right direction, this column argues that their success will depend on how serious the government is about taming inflation. These bonds will help the government reduce its debt only if they are accompanied by anti-inflationary monetary and fiscal policies.
Why statisticians matter for nation-building
In a data-driven era, the role of statisticians in shaping national development is more vital than ever. Yet, their presence in key policy domains remains limited. In this post, Pramanik and Das contend that, to change this, we must modernise academic curricula, reform professional training, and promote meaningful collaboration between statisticians, computer scientists, and development practitioners.
Synthetic Control Method: Opportunity for policy evaluation
Policy evaluation involves estimating the effect of an intervention, by comparing outcomes in units subjected to the intervention with otherwise similar units not subjected to intervention. However, this may be challenging if there is no appropriate comparison group. In this post, Karan Bhasin discusses how the ‘Synthetic Control Method’ can work in such cases, and its application for evaluating the impact of policies such as inflation targeting.
Economics Nobel 2024: Igniting discussion beyond the academy
The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity”. In this post, Patrick Francois contend that the contribution of the laureates lies in opening up a whole new set of facts from history, to change the way we think about one of the biggest of the ‘big questions’ in economics – why are some places rich and others poor?
Robert Solow and the ‘Wealth of Nations’
In a tribute to Robert Solow, I4I’s Editor-in-Chief Parikshit Ghosh outlines some of the late Nobel Laureate’s contributions to macroeconomics, and uses examples and metaphors for the economy to explain how the Solow model presents the idea of tapering growth in a mathematical framework. He examines catch-up growth in India in the context of this model, and highlights the need to look beyond the usual suspects to find the path to mass prosperity that remains elusive to many nations.
Claudia Goldin’s Nobel Prize winning research
On Sunday, Claudia Goldin will be awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for her work on women’s progress in the workforce. In this piece, Farzana Afridi reflects on the significance of Goldin’s win and the contribution of her research to understanding the gender dynamics of labour markets. She also delves into the implications of this research for developing countries like India, where female labour force participation has remained low despite economic growth, and why this matters for economic growth.
Banks, finance and the 2022 Economics Nobel Prize
This year the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig for their work on the role of banks in the economy, particularly during financial crises. In this piece, Amartya Lahiri summarises their seminal works – Diamond and Dybvig on the essence of traditional banks, and Bernanke on the financial crisis during the Great Depression – and describes their impact on the understanding of modern-day financial crises, and the Laureates’ contribution to the field of economics.
Jacques Drèze’s intellectual journey
Eminent economist Jacques Drèze passed away on 25 September 2022 at the age of 93. Professor Drèze was known for his contributions to economic theory and public policy, from general equilibrium analysis to employment strategies in Europe. He founded the Centre for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), one of Europe’s leading centres for research in economics. In this piece, his son Jean Drèze remembers his father’s journey as an economist and scholar.
Potential to further strengthen the Census Act
In reference to the Census (Amendment) Rules introduced in March 2022, Garhwal and Sapre outline the scope to further strengthen the Census Act and its administration. With the introduction of self-enumeration and increased digitisation in data collection, authors make suggestions to address two issues – the delay in release of census tables and challenges that census operations may face with digital form filling.
Prof. Rohini Somanathan remembers Prof. Ashok Kotwal
Prof Rohini Somanathan pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Ashok Kotwal.
Prof. Bharat Ramaswami remembers Prof. Ashok Kotwal
Prof Bharat Ramaswami pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
Prof. Anand Swamy remembers Prof. Ashok Kotwal
Prof. Anand V. Swamy writes a heartfelt account of how Prof. Ashok Kotwal came to influence him.
Ashwini Kulkarni remembers Prof. Ashok Kotwal
Ashwini Kulkarni pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
Memories of Ashok Kotwal
Prof. Jean Drèze pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
A tribute to Prof. Ashok Kotwal by Prof. Pranab Bardhan
Prof. Pranab Bardhan pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
Remembering our Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal
We regret to inform you that our Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Ashok Kotwal, passed away on 28 April 2022. Apart from being a founding member of Ideas for India, he was Professor Emeritus at the Department of Economics at University of British Columbia, Senior Fellow at (BREAD) Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis in Development and an Associate, (ThRed) Theoretical Research in Economic Development. It is a huge loss for his family, friends, colleagues, and all of us at Ideas for India. He was an integral part of I4I from its inception in 2012, and his vision will continue to guide us in the years to come. If you would like to share your messages of remembrance for Prof. Ashok Kotwal, please send them to managing.editor@ideasforindia.in and we will post them on this page for you.
The inimitable Ashok Kotwal
Prof Sanjay Subrahmanyam pens a heartfelt remembrance for our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
A tribute to Prof. Ashok Kotwal by Prof. Ashwini Deshpande
Prof. Ashwini Deshpande pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
A tribute to Prof. Ashok Kotwal by Prof. Amartya Lahiri
Prof. Amartya Lahiri pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
A tribute to Prof. Ashok Kotwal by Prof. Madhav Badami
Prof Madhav Badami pens a heartfelt remembrance for our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
A tribute to Prof. Ashok Kotwal by Prof. Patrick Francois
Prof. Patrick Francois pens a heartfelt tribute to our founder Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
Farewell to Nalini!
I4I Editor-in-Chief Ashok Kotwal pens a farewell note for outgoing Managing Editor Nalini Gulati.
Improving survey quality using paradata: Lessons from the India Working Survey
To improve the credibility of survey data, several monitoring tools are used by researchers – such as ‘paradata’, which have gained prominence with the growth of computer-aided interviewing. In this post, Goel et al. discuss how paradata were used in the ‘India Working Survey’ conducted in the states of Karnataka and Rajasthan in 2020, to streamline enumerator practices and enhance data quality.
On the perils of embedded experiments
There is growing interest in ‘embedded experiments’, conducted by researchers and policymakers as a team. Aside from their potential scale, the main attraction of these experiments is that they seem to facilitate speedy translation of research into policy. Discussing a case study from Bihar, Jean Drèze argues that this approach carries a danger of distorting both policy and research.
A tribute for my mentor, Ashok
Former I4I Managing Editor Nalini Gulati pens a heartfelt tribute to our founding Editor-in-Chief Prof. Ashok Kotwal.
Nobel Prize in Economics 2021: Clarity, transparency, and credibility in empirical research
This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to David Card – for his empirical contributions to labour economics – and Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens – for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships. In this post, Thomas Lemieux discusses the contribution of the Nobel laureates in revolutionising the way empirical work is conducted in micro-oriented fields, particularly through the use of natural experiments to answer important economic questions, and new econometric tools to interpret the results.
Note from the I4I Team: Happy Holidays!
We are now closed for Christmas and New Year, until Monday, 3 January 2022. We would like to thank all our readers and contributors for supporting I4I through the year, and helping us reach over one million page views in 2021! We will be back in the New Year with new articles, perspectives, notes from the field, e-symposia, events, and conversations. The I4I Team wishes all readers a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
I4I at 10: Zooming over the last nine years, and looking ahead
As ‘Ideas for India’ enters its 10th year, Editor-in-Chief Ashok Kotwal reflects on its growth as a credible, ideologically neutral, and accessible platform for evidence-based policy analysis, and presents the vision for the future.
I4I 2020 highlights: Note from the Editor-in-Chief
As we near the end of 2020, Editor-in-chief Ashok Kotwal reflects on the unprecedented and momentous year that was, and presents key highlights from I4I.
Phone survey methodology for social and economic research in India
Data collection using face-to-face surveys has faced a roadblock in the wake of restricted mobility and social distancing guidelines to contain the spread of Covid-19. In this post, Coffey et al. describe their experience of conducting a mobile phone survey about social attitudes, discrimination, and public opinion, which has been carried out in seven states and cities in India since 2016.
RCTs for policymaking: Ethical and methodological considerations
The last decade has seen an increased adoption of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for answering policy questions in developing countries. RCTs are being preferred over other research methods mainly for their reduced risk of bias. However, multiple researchers have cautioned against the acceptance of this hierarchy in research designs. In this post, Sneha P situates this debate in the Indian context and discusses when RCTs are appropriate for informing decision-making in policy.
Doing our bidding: Auctions and the greater common good
This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson for improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats. In this post, Parikshit Ghosh discusses the evolution of auction theory and the significant contributions of the Laureates.
The SHRUG: A new high-resolution data platform for research on India
The Socioeconomic High-resolution Rural-Urban Geographic Dataset on India (SHRUG) is a new data source that describes socioeconomic development in India. In this post, Asher, Lunt, and Novosad describe its construction and particular advantages over existing datasets for research on economic development.
Death penalty for gender-based violence: A band-aid solution for a broken system
In 2018, Government of India amended the Protection of Children against Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, 2012 and the Indian Penal Code to provide for death penalty for rape of children under 12 years of age. Shreeradha Mishra argues that while capital punishment might provide the illusion of justice, it is purely retributive in approach, and does not seek to offer any preventive solutions to tackle the problem of sexual violence.
Note from I4I Team: Happy Holidays!
We are now closed for Christmas and New Year, until Thursday, 2 January 2020. We will be back in the New Year with new articles, perspectives, notes from the field, e-symposia, explainers, videos, and podcasts. The I4I Team wishes all readers a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
What lies behind this year's economics Nobel
In this post, Maitreesh Ghatak discusses how randomised controlled trials – the use of which was pioneered by this year’s economics Nobel Laureates, Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer – have been successfully applied in real life with programmes and interventions that directly impact the poor. He contends that they can provide a much-needed corrective to the top-down approach of centralised policymaking.
Three Nobel Laureates who incited a movement
This year’s Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to the trio responsible for revolutionising the field of development economics: Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer. In this post, Siwan Anderson discusses their pioneering work and its impact on the lives of millions of poor people across the globe. She contends that this year’s Prize is also a long-awaited acknowledgement of women in the economics profession
I4I turns 7!
As I4I completes seven years, Editor-in-Chief Ashok Kotwal reflects on the achievements and challenges, and the vision going forward.
A tribute to Marty Weitzman
Prof. Martin Weitzman who was among the most influential economists in the world passed away on 27 August 2019. His work on the uncertainty about how bad the impacts of a changed climate could be has made a huge difference to how economists think about climate change. In this post, Prof. E. Somanthan of the Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi Centre pays a tribute to him.
I4I Event: What is the way forward for the Indian economy?
On Tuesday, 18 December 2018, I4I is organising a Panel Discussion on ‘The Way forward for the Indian economy’, in Delhi. The panellists are K.P. Krishnan (Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship), T.N. Ninan (Business Standard), Ila Patnaik (NIPFP), and Sanjeev Sanyal (Ministry of Finance). In this post, Ashok Kotwal (Editor-in-Chief, I4I) – who will moderate the discussion – sets the context and lays out the key issues for deliberation.
Winner of Infosys Prize 2018 in Social Sciences: Sendhil Mullainathan
The Infosys Prize 2018 for Social Sciences has been awarded to Sendhil Mullainathan, Professor of Computation and Behavioral Science, University of Chicago, for his path-breaking work in behavioural economics. In this post, I4I Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Ashok Kotwal discusses the substantial impact of Mullainathan’s work on diverse fields such as development, public finance, corporate governance, and policy design – and relevance to India.
T.N., fondly remembered
Prof. T.N. Srinivasan, an acclaimed Indian economist and Professor Emeritus at Yale University, passed away on 11 November in Chennai. In this post, Prof. Rohini Somanathan of the Delhi School of Economics pays a tribute to Prof. Srinivasan.
Winner of Infosys Prize 2018 in Social Sciences: Sendhil Mullainathan
The Infosys Prize 2018 for Social Sciences has been awarded to Sendhil Mullainathan, Professor of Computation and Behavioral Science, University of Chicago, for his path-breaking work in behavioural economics. In this post, I4I Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Ashok Kotwal discusses the substantial impact of Mullainathan’s work on diverse fields such as development, public finance, corporate governance, and policy design – and relevance to India.
T.N. Srinivasan: An economist for all seasons
In a tribute to Prof. T.N. Srinivasan, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha writes that the death of Prof. Srinivasan – the iconoclast who laid the intellectual groundwork for India’s economic reforms – marks the end of an era.
The particulars of social policy in India: Evidence, State capacity, and policy design
Economist-activist Jean Drèze has argued that economists are no better equipped to comment on development policy design than other social science researchers and other stakeholders, and that policymaking requires more than just evidence. In this post, Apurva Bamezai and M.R. Sharan explore the roots of development economists’ centrality in social policy design and locate it in the nature of the evidence they generate and the top-heavy policymaking paradigm in India. Further, focusing on evidence alone, they contend that a more multidisciplinary approach can prove beneficial, and evidence-generation can also be a by-product of increased citizen-State interactions
Evidence, policy, and politics
Commenting on the concept of evidence-based policy, Jean Drèze argues that the relation between evidence and policy needs further thought. Based on his involvement with social policy in India, he believes that while economists can contribute to more informed policy discussions and public debates they ought to be cautious in offering advice on policy design.
On research in development economics
In an interview with a student at Fudan University, China, Dilip Mookherjee (Member of the I4I Editorial Board) discusses Chinese growth; India-China comparison; and research in development economics.
Economics among the road scholars
Jholawala Economics’ is a derogatory term that the urban elites use to dismiss the arguments of social activists without having to contend with them. However, some of the jholawalas are indeed first-rate economists and their arguments cannot be dismissed easily. Jean Drèze is a prime example. His book ‘Sense and Solidarity: Jholawala Economics for Everyone’ puts together the wisdom that he and his co-authors (especially Reetika Khera) have gathered while doing research motivated by the problems they found at the grassroots level. This article is a condensed version of the thought-provoking introduction to the book.
Kenneth Arrow, 1921-2017
In a tribute to Kenneth Arrow, Debraj Ray, Professor of Economics at NYU, outlines the contributions of the late Nobel laureate to economic thought.
Introducing a new feature: – ‘Explainers’
Our day-to-day lives are tossed around due to economic changes, resulting sometimes from government policies and sometimes by unidentifiable forces of the world economy. Governments always label every policy change as a ‘reform’ there by signaling an improvement. But it isn’t always so. Often it generates winners and losers and we want to know who these are. Our wellbeing is also affected by the churning in the outside world such as artificial intelligence, automation, global warming, oil prices, and so on. We may not be able to control these forces but at least we would like to understand how they would affect us so that we can safeguard ourselves. Moreover, you – our readers – would not be reading I4I if you were not intellectually curious. With this in mind, we are starting a new feature ‘Explainers’.
Humanising economics
In a tribute to Richard Thaler, recipient of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics, Ashok Kotwal and Nalini Gulati discuss his pioneering work on decision-making that lies in the space between economics and psychology.
John Nash and modern economic theory
In a tribute to John Nash, Parikshit Ghosh, Associate Professor at Delhi School of Economics, outlines the revolutionary contributions of the late Nobel laureate to economic thought.
On ideology
In recent debates over issues such as the National Food Security Bill or the use of the Unique Identification, we seem to find people with similar values in opposing ideological camps. This editorial seeks to understand why that might be, and argues that we should steer clear of misidentifying the mechanics of achieving certain goals as fundamental ideological differences.
Sign up to our newsletter to be notified about the latest updates
.svg)
Just One Step Away!
Complete your signup to start getting the latest news, stories, and updates delivered straight to your inbox.