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Why next-generation economic reforms are crucial for reviving investment
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Macroeconomics
Covid-19: Does the Government of India really have little fiscal space?
Several commentators have argued that the Government of India has very limited fiscal space to provide fiscal stimulus to jumpstart the economy, and spend on the poor and on medical care post Covid-19 lockdown. In this post, Gurbachan Singh contends that there is significant, if not ample, fiscal space, if we use the term more broadly. He shows how fiscal space in terms of government's existing assets can be an alternative way of maintaining aggregate demand in the economy
Covid-19: Mitigating the risk from reverse migration
One of the worst affected sections from India’s Covid-19 lockdown has been the migrant workers who have been left jobless, moneyless, and homeless. Though efforts are being made by several state governments to bring back migrant workers and facilitate their safe movement, this ‘reverse migration’ raises the risk of the spread of infection to the hinterlands. In this post, Parikh, Gupta, and Subham discuss how states can mitigate this imminent risk.
How to ease Covid-19 lockdown? Forward guidance using a multi-dimensional vulnerability index
While extending the nationwide Covid-19 lockdown for two more weeks starting 17 May 2020, the government has given major relaxations for public movement and economic activity in non-containment zones in India. Essentially the current method for classifying all the districts into zones is unidimensional in nature, relying primarily on the existing penetration of the infection as a predictor of future spread. Chakrabarty, Mandi, and Mukherjee construct a multi-dimensional Vulnerability Index for Indian districts that can provide guidance for lifting the lockdown sequentially.
Webinar: The new Coronavirus and the Indian economy
The Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES) and I4I are jointly hosting a webinar with Ashok Kotwal (Editor-in-Chief, I4I) on Monday, 18 May at 9.30 am IST. Prof. Kotwal will discuss the structure and state of the Indian economy in 2019, the arrival of New Coronavirus, the response by the Government of India, the public debate over the appropriateness of the response, and suggestions for a course correction.
Covid-19: Leading India effectively out of the lockdown
India is on the brink of coming out of its Covid-19 lockdown. In this post, Ghosh and Pal examine the challenges around the implementation of expert advice on effectively leading India out of the lockdown. They argue that the central government can do more to promote intergovernmental cooperation in building a national strategy for resolving policy paralyses, to release essential funding to states objectively for enhancing testing and tracking, and to regulate fake news and misinformation for preventing fear and rumour.
Covid-19: Getting fiscal policy right
The textbook answer to financing of additional government expenditure in a recession is that the government should borrow the funds rather than impose a tax. Gurbachan Singh argues that the conventional wisdom applies to a normal economy in recession, but not to an economy that is in recession due to lockdown. He explains that the Government of India need not incur additional fiscal deficit to provide an additional relief package; it can instead impose direct taxes without making a significant dent into the aggregate demand.
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