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Why next-generation economic reforms are crucial for reviving investment
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Macroeconomics
Inflation targeting and capital flows
Current law in India mandates a review of the target inflation rate by 31 March 2021 for a five-year period. Several critics have called for abandoning the flexible inflation targeting regime altogether. In this post, Gurbachan Singh shows that flexible inflation targeting can accentuate the problem of sudden capital flows, and that the current monetary policy framework can be substantially improved by including two ‘new’ policy instruments that can be used by the Ministry of Finance rather than the RBI,
Covid-19 crisis: Response should not undermine institutions
The unprecedented economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in calls for drastic actions on part of the government and RBI. In this post, Sengupta and Vardhan content that these actions often entail – explicitly or indirectly – undermining or even overriding established frameworks and institutions of policymaking. In their view, this approach is ineffective and unsustainable, and can be dangerous for India’s medium- to long-term growth prospects.
Aatmanirbhar Bharat: Foreign trade, capital flows, and India’s growth
The Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) policy was announced by the central government, along with the economic package, as a response to the crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. In this post, Partha Sen discusses the role of foreign trade and capital flows in India’s growth performance. He contends that India can create foreign demand for its products by putting a lid on capital flows and following a suitable exchange rate policy
Covid-19 lockdown and migrant workers: Survey of vocational trainees from Bihar and Jharkhand
The nationwide lockdown in India hit migrant workers particularly hard and once travel restrictions were lifted, 11 million interstate migrants returned home. In this note, the authors present key findings from a phone survey of youth from Bihar and Jharkhand who were previous trainees of ‘Deen Dayal Upadhyay Grameen Kaushalya Yojana’. The survey seeks to assess the impact of the lockdown on interstate migrant workers, and to gauge their willingness to migrate again in the future.
A ten-point programme for economic recovery
The Indian economy has been experiencing a slowdown in growth of GDP in general and investment in particular, with the Covid-19 crisis being the last (big) straw. In this post, Gurbachan Singh presents an internally consistent 10-point programme for economic recovery, which includes a novel package of well-targeted policies for macroeconomic and financial stability, and self-sustaining growth.
Which jobs were ‘lost’ during India’s Covid-19 lockdowns? Evidence from online vacancy postings
Covid-19 and associated lockdowns across countries have had a devastating impact on the global economy and labour markets. In India, recent data show a historic economic contraction by 23.9% over the last quarter. Using real-time data from a large online job portal, this article finds that hiring activity (in mostly urban, formal-sector jobs) declined dramatically due to the national lockdown and these job losses affected less-educated, young, and female job seekers more than others.
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