.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}
%201.svg){kind=icon}
%201.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg)
.svg)
Rajeswari Sengupta
Dr Rajeswari Sengupta is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research in Mumbai. Her research focuses on policy-relevant, macro-financial issues of emerging market economies in general and India in particular, in the fields of international finance, open economy macroeconomics, national accounts measurement.
In the past she has held a faculty position at the Institute for Financial Management and Research (IFMR Business School) in Chennai, and short-term research positions at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington DC, as well as the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. She was a visitor at the City University of Hong Kong in 2013 and at the Osnabruck University in Germany in 2024. She was also a recipient of the ICRIER Young Scholar Grant in 2013 for attending the NBER Summer Institute in Boston.
Dr Sengupta was a member of the research secretariat for the Bankruptcy Law Reforms Committee that proposed India's Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016. She is currently a member of the FICCI Economists’ Forum and the Society for Economics Research in India (SERI). She is also an Editor in Chief at the Journal of South Asian Development.
She has published her research papers in reputed international journals including The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Economic Policy, The Journal of International Money and Finance, The World Economy, Emerging Markets Review, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Asian Economics, Pacific Economic Review, and Open Economies Review. She also writes regularly on Indian economic issues in leading English as well as Bengali newspapers.
She completed her M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC). She holds two previous degrees in Economics: a Bachelor's degree from Presidency College, Calcutta and a Masters from Delhi School of Economics. Details of her work can be found here.
.svg)
केन्द्रीय बजट 2025-26 : कई छोटे-छोटे उपाय लेकिन बड़े विचारों का अभाव
वित्त मंत्री ने हाल ही में वर्ष 2025-26 का केन्द्रीय बजट पेश किया। राजेश्वरी सेनगुप्ता इस लेख में बजट पर चर्चा करते हुए यह बताती हैं कि इस का सबसे महत्वपूर्ण पहलू कर राहत के माध्यम से मध्यम वर्ग के उपभोक्ताओं को लक्षित राजकोषीय प्रोत्साहन है। फिर भी, उनका तर्क है कि टिकाऊ, दीर्घकालिक विकास को बढ़ावा देने के लिए पर्याप्त संरचनात्मक सुधारों के अभाव में इस उपाय का प्रभाव सीमित और अल्पकालिक होने की संभावना है।
Union Budget 2025-26: Many small measures but lacks big ideas
The Finance Minister recently presented the Union Budget for 2025-26. In this post, Rajeswari Sengupta notes that the most significant aspect of this Budget is the fiscal stimulus aimed at middle-class consumers through tax relief. However, she argues that the impact of this measure is likely to be limited and short-lived in the absence of substantial structural reforms to drive sustainable, long-term growth.
Budget 2023-24: Fiscally conservative but lacking economic strategy
The Indian economy’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has not been all good news: employment creation has stagnated, and government capex allocation has not been successful in generating private sector investment. Against this backdrop, Rajeswari Sengupta discusses two missed opportunities for the Union Budget – announcing strong growth-oriented policies, which could help meet the medium-term fiscal deficit target to increase macroeconomic stability; and boosting India's trade competitiveness by reducing import tariffs and focussing on exports.
आरबीआई के कार्य (और वक्तव्य) कैसे वित्तीय बाजारों को प्रभावित करते हैं
विकसित देशों में उनके केंद्रीय बैंक द्वारा घोषित नीतिगत दरों में अप्रत्याशित परिवर्तन के चलते वित्तीय बाजारों को लगने वाले मौद्रिक झटके के प्रति पर्याप्त प्रतिक्रिया दर्शाने के लिए जाना जाता है। यह लेख भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक (आरबीआई) के मौद्रिक नीति संबंधी वक्तव्यों और 2003-2020 के दौरान ओवरनाइट इंडेक्स स्वैप दरों में दैनिक परिवर्तनों के आंकड़ों के विश्लेषण के आधार पर दर्शाता है कि भारत में भी यही स्थिति है।
बजट 2022-23: सफलताएं एवं चूक
वर्ष 2022-23 के बजट की सफलताएं एवं चूक को रेखांकित करते हुए, राजेश्वरी सेनगुप्ता यह तर्क देती हैं कि सरकार द्वारा पूंजीगत व्यय को बढ़ावा देना एक सही दिशा में कदम प्रतीत होता है, जबकि संरक्षणवाद पर निरंतर ध्यान केंद्रित करने के पीछे का तर्क संदिग्ध है। उनके विचार में, बजट में एक सुसंगत विकास रणनीति का अभाव है, जो कि वर्तमान में विशेष रूप से सरकारी ऋण के उच्च स्तर को देखते हुए आवश्यक थी।
Budget 2022-23: Hits and misses
Outlining the hits and misses of the Budget 2022-23, Rajeswari Sengupta contends that the capital expenditure push by the government seems to be a step in the right direction, while the rationale behind the continued focus on protectionism is questionable. In her view, the Budget appeared to lack a coherent growth strategy, which was the need of the hour – especially given the high levels of government debt.
Understanding the dynamics of the rupee-dollar exchange rate
Since 1993, the Indian rupee (INR) has officially been following a market-determined exchange rate – price is determined by demand for and supply of foreign exchange – with intervention by the Reserve Bank of India from time-to-time. Analysing data from 2000-2020, Patnaik and Sengupta examine whether INR actually followed multiple exchange rate regimes, and if so, how the Central Bank managed exchange market pressure across these regimes.
How open is India's capital account?
Although India began opening up its capital account in the mid-1990s, the approach towards financial liberalisation has been cautious. Tracing changes in the de-facto openness of the country’s capital account over time, Aggarwal et al. contend that greater financial integration with global markets along with monetary policy autonomy to successfully pursue an inflation target, reduces the policy space available to the RBI to stabilise currency fluctuations.
Of twists and turns: Monetary policy and ‘term premium’
As India’s economic growth slowed down in recent years, the reliance on monetary policy to stimulate growth increased significantly – especially during the pandemic. Analysing data from 2018-2020, Rajeswari Sengupta and Harsh Vardhan show that conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions of the RBI have had only a modest impact on the ‘term premium’ – an indicator of the market’s expectations of future interest rates. This points towards the limits of monetary policy actions alone as economic stimulus during a crisis.
Covid-19 crisis: Response should not undermine institutions
The unprecedented economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in calls for drastic actions on part of the government and RBI. In this post, Sengupta and Vardhan content that these actions often entail – explicitly or indirectly – undermining or even overriding established frameworks and institutions of policymaking. In their view, this approach is ineffective and unsustainable, and can be dangerous for India’s medium- to long-term growth prospects.
The pandemic and the package
The government has announced a package of fiscal and monetary policy actions, and broader economic reforms to set the economy back on track after the Covid-19 lockdown. In this post, Sengupta and Vardhan argue that instead of announcing many small-ticket items that further complicate matters of targeting and delivery, the package could have been split into two main parts: partial credit guarantees and direct lending programmes for targeted micro, small, and medium enterprises; and direct benefit transfers to low-income households
Covid-19: Macroeconomic implications for India
Due to the measures adopted to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19), especially social distancing and lockdown, non-essential expenditures are being postponed. This is causing aggregate demand to collapse across the globe. Rajeswari Sengupta argues that the problem could be more acute and longer lasting in India owing to the parlous state the economy was in before Covid-19 struck, and discusses policy options to deal with the economic crisis.
Firm survival in India: Status of firms formed over the last 30 years
The dynamic process of new firm formation and exit of weaker firms contributes to the evolution of industries and expansion of the economy. This article analyses the status of all new firms formed in India over 1981-2011, and their survival over time. It finds that, on average, roughly 45% of new firms survive more than 20 years. Apart from the surviving firms that are active, another 20% of the firms become dormant, which raises some concerns.
Firm formation in India: The last 40 years
Research shows that entrepreneurship or new firm formation can be an important driver of economic development. This article studies the extent of new firm formation in India over the last 40 years and documents patterns that emerge. It shows that new firm formation has steadily grown over the last 40 years implying shifting concentration of economic activity from a limited number of firms to a large number of new entrants.
अंतरिम बजट 2019: तेजी से बढ़ती अर्थव्यवस्था में बढ़ता राजकोषीय घाटा?
इस लेख में राजेस्वरी सेनगुप्ता ने हाल ही में घोषित केंद्रीय अंतरिम बजट की विभिन्न बारीकियों का विश्लेषण किया है जिनमें राजकोषीय सुदृढ़ीकरण के लक्षित मार्ग से भटकाव शामिल है। आधार से जुड़े बैंक खातों के दौर में सरकारों के लिए बड़ी संख्या में मतदाताओं को रुपए ट्रांसफर करना काफी आसान हो गया है जिसके कारण नई कल्याणकारी योजनाओं की घोषणा करने का लालच भी बढ़ा है। राष्ट्र की राजकोषीय सुदृढ़ता को संभवतः इसके चलते गंभीर कीमत चुकानी पड़ सकती है।
Interim Budget 2019: Rising fiscal deficit in a 'booming' economy
In this article, Rajeswari Sengupta analyses various nuances of the recently announced Union Interim Budget, including the deviation from the targeted path of fiscal consolidation. In a world of Aadhaar-linked bank accounts, it is significantly easier for governments to transfer money to a vast numbers of voters leading to an increase in the temptation to announce new welfare schemes. This can potentially take a serious toll on the nation's fiscal strength.
Communicating uncertainties in GDP data
In recent times there has been a lot of controversy around the accuracy and reliability of Indian GDP estimates. In this article, Amey Sapre and Rajeswari Sengupta contend that much of this confusion stems from the lack of publicly available information about the sources and margins of errors and data quality. Communicating the limitations of official data to the public in a credible and transparent manner may mitigate the extent of uncertainty around GDP estimates.
Studying revisions in Indian GDP data
The GDP numbers for a given year undergo a sequence of revisions based on data availability. The periodic revisions are meant to reveal the true picture of the economy, and affect macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking. Large, frequent, and uncertain data revisions can raise questions of data credibility and lead to imprecise inputs for policymaking. In this article, Sapre and Sengupta highlight several issues in the revisions in India's GDP series.
GDP conundrum: Is India booming?
Rajeswari Sengupta, Assistant Professor at IGIDR, points out that the methodology used for the new GDP series seems to be underestimating the GDP deflator, which in turn is causing real growth to be overstated, perhaps by as much as 2 percentage points.
A macro view of India’s currency ban
The recent ban on high-value currency notes has taken the country by storm. While much is being written about the pros and cons of this announcement in terms of the effect on black money, logistical costs, and the immediate inconvenience faced by the public, there is little or no discourse on the macroeconomic implications. In this article, Rajeswari Sengupta, Assistant Professor of Economics at IGIDR, discusses the impact of this move on money supply, output and prices, in the short- and medium-term.
Inflation targeting: A long way to go
The Finance Bill, 2016, amended the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934, to define inflation targeting as the primary objective of the central bank. In this article, Rajeswari Sengupta, Assistant Professor at IGIDR, contends that to actually become an inflation-targeting central bank, RBI will need to undertake a series of reforms to build institutional capabilities and improve the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
The nuances of inflation targeting in India
How prepared is India for inflation targeting? This column suggests that the larger weight assigned by the RBI to tackling inflation over the years, relative to other policy objectives such as stabilising exchange rates, places it in a good position to make the transition to the new regime. However, limited control over supply shocks that impact inflation might continue to pose a challenge. Greater coordination between fiscal and monetary policy would improve the efficacy of inflation targeting
Exchange rate movements and Indian firms' exports
Understanding the effects of exchange-rate changes on a country’s trade balance calls for an analysis of how exchange-rate fluctuations affect the decisions of individual firms. This column explores the effects of changes in the exchange rate on the share of exports of Indian non-financial sector firms.
The challenges of opening up India's capital account
A key objective for any open economy is to avoid a financial or balance of payments crisis – a goal that often calls for trade-offs between liberalisation and maintaining control of the economy. This column explores the trade offs India has made.
Understanding India's monetary policy
From the outside looking in, it may seem that India’s central bank is making up its own rules, making it difficult to predict the next movements in the interest rate. This column argues that the central bank is in fact following a rule, you just have to look hard enough.
Public bank privatisation: No panacea for the ills of the banking sector
The recent Punjab National Bank fraud has rekindled the debate on bank privatisation, often considered a solution for the poor management in public sector banks. In this article, Sengupta and Roy contend that privatisation may solve other problems in the Indian economy, free up fiscal resources, and may even reduce corruption, but it is not a solution for regulatory weaknesses.
Understanding the recent ordinance amending the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code
The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 (IBC) is a landmark reform for India. One year after the notification of the law, an Ordinance to amend IBC has been promulgated, which bars several categories of persons and entities from participating in the IBC processes. In this article, Sengupta and Sharma discuss how the Ordinance goes against some of the core principles of the IBC and analyse how it is likely to impact bankruptcy outcomes.
Bank financing of stressed firms
There is anecdotal evidence that banks in India have been extending credit to highly distressed firms. By delaying recognition of bad loans, banks may improve their own profitability in the short run, but in the long run, this has only exacerbated the non-performing asset crisis in the banking sector. This column provides preliminary empirical evidence that banks have indeed been throwing good money after bad.
Will demonetisation lead to a protracted economic slowdown?
In this article, Pandey and Sengupta argue that the impact of the contractionary demand shock triggered by the note ban will gradually radiate from cash-intensive activities to virtually every sector of the economy.
Corporate debt market in India: Issues and challenges
While it is true that the Indian corporate debt market has transformed itself into a much more vibrant trading field for debt instruments from the elementary market that it was about a decade ago, there is still a long way to go. This column systematically lays down the issues and challenges facing the corporate debt market in India.